First, a health warning-constituency level polling is often unreliable. Sample size here about 500.
But if this were to come to pass it would be disastrous for Labour and for Starmer- only the second time a government gained a seat off the Opposition in a by election since 1982.
But if this were to come to pass it would be disastrous for Labour and for Starmer- only the second time a government gained a seat off the Opposition in a by election since 1982.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1379207704112156677
It would imply the bleeding in the North for Labour has not stopped and the Conservatives have a chance of expanding the electoral map yet further (with no real sign of where the corresponding gains for Labour might come).
And though Starmer’s allies will say that this shows bad things got under Corbyn, Corbyn’s allies will says that’s a peculiar analysis, given Corbyn won Hartlepool- twice.
It would be enormously damaging for Starmer’s personal authority.
It would be enormously damaging for Starmer’s personal authority.
Despite this, my own view is that Labour will probably retain the seat come polling day- but the fact there’s a possibility that they won’t is a sign of the deep malaise in the party’s heartlands and hardly one of a leadership project on the advance, which is where it should be.
NB to those saying so, yes BXP got a big vote in Hartlepool in 19 but that’s not exculpatory for a potential loss; BXP did so in a score of other Labour held constituencies in the North too. Labour and Starmer have to have an answer to that, lest those seats go blue as well.
Entirely possible this poll which I said at the beginning should be tested with some caution (i) galvanises Lab which makes their winning the seat more likely (ii) comes to shape expectations so that a modest win seems more impressive than it really is and papers over the cracks.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1379214316629544963
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