We're at the stage of the cycle where it's easy to make bad decisions BOTH as a bull and as a bear.
In 1-3YR, the market punishes euphoric private investors plowing into overvalued party rounds. In 3-9M, the market decimates shorts of any kind (BTCUSD, ALTUSD, ALTBTC).
In 1-3YR, the market punishes euphoric private investors plowing into overvalued party rounds. In 3-9M, the market decimates shorts of any kind (BTCUSD, ALTUSD, ALTBTC).
It's the fragmented phase of the cycle. It's no longer enough to *just* get your macro bias correct.
Compare today's private market to Q1-Q3 last year.
You needed two things to make good decisions last year: the belief that primary markets were cheap, & access to solid teams sub $20m valuation.
There are no more decisions that will look or feel this easy.
You needed two things to make good decisions last year: the belief that primary markets were cheap, & access to solid teams sub $20m valuation.
There are no more decisions that will look or feel this easy.
Quality decision making gets way harder from here. The number of deals balloons and private rounds become increasingly competitive. Party rounds and FOMO investing abound.
Yet, there will be incredible winners hidden in plain sight.
Yet, there will be incredible winners hidden in plain sight.
Think of "crazy valuation" deals in 17/18 that survived &
have returned enormously, but also be careful of survivorship bias & recognize that many "bull market deals" will underperform BTC.
The paradox: Being skeptical of "bull market deals" while open to high-val winners.
have returned enormously, but also be careful of survivorship bias & recognize that many "bull market deals" will underperform BTC.
The paradox: Being skeptical of "bull market deals" while open to high-val winners.
The dance between private and public markets will be amazing - and probably a massive trap for many.
The hardest part is seeing all these stupid things in private markets but not letting this lure you into making bad decisions in the liquid markets (shorting a freight train).
The hardest part is seeing all these stupid things in private markets but not letting this lure you into making bad decisions in the liquid markets (shorting a freight train).
On the liquid front, the wild part about crypto is that most gains tend to come in a very short period. A lot of really smart people blew up in 2017 in *late November / early December*, weeks from the end.
You can survive 90% of the cycle only to self-destruct in the last 10%.
You can survive 90% of the cycle only to self-destruct in the last 10%.
There are so many ways to blow up in a bull market. You might hedge too early, buy back at highs & then give up on hedging altogether. You might sell your alts too early, see everyone else make exorbitant money in days/weeks, & then take some dumb, late-cycle risks as revenge.
TLDR:
-It's no longer enough to get your macro bias correct to make good decisions, especially in primary markets
-Paradox of remaining open to expensive, quality winners vs dodging "bull market deals"
-The dance b/w primary & public is very interesting & also very dangerous
-It's no longer enough to get your macro bias correct to make good decisions, especially in primary markets
-Paradox of remaining open to expensive, quality winners vs dodging "bull market deals"
-The dance b/w primary & public is very interesting & also very dangerous
-Just as you need to make the highest quality decisions in the cycle, more noise, more temptations & more manic advertisements will compete for your attention
-& Finally, I have ZERO idea how this is going to play out in the next 1-2Y, but it's going to be insane:)
-& Finally, I have ZERO idea how this is going to play out in the next 1-2Y, but it's going to be insane:)
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