We're at the stage of the cycle where it's easy to make bad decisions BOTH as a bull and as a bear.

In 1-3YR, the market punishes euphoric private investors plowing into overvalued party rounds. In 3-9M, the market decimates shorts of any kind (BTCUSD, ALTUSD, ALTBTC).
It's the fragmented phase of the cycle. It's no longer enough to *just* get your macro bias correct.
Compare today's private market to Q1-Q3 last year.

You needed two things to make good decisions last year: the belief that primary markets were cheap, & access to solid teams sub $20m valuation.

There are no more decisions that will look or feel this easy.
Quality decision making gets way harder from here. The number of deals balloons and private rounds become increasingly competitive. Party rounds and FOMO investing abound.

Yet, there will be incredible winners hidden in plain sight.
Think of "crazy valuation" deals in 17/18 that survived &
have returned enormously, but also be careful of survivorship bias & recognize that many "bull market deals" will underperform BTC.

The paradox: Being skeptical of "bull market deals" while open to high-val winners.
The dance between private and public markets will be amazing - and probably a massive trap for many.

The hardest part is seeing all these stupid things in private markets but not letting this lure you into making bad decisions in the liquid markets (shorting a freight train).
On the liquid front, the wild part about crypto is that most gains tend to come in a very short period. A lot of really smart people blew up in 2017 in *late November / early December*, weeks from the end.

You can survive 90% of the cycle only to self-destruct in the last 10%.
There are so many ways to blow up in a bull market. You might hedge too early, buy back at highs & then give up on hedging altogether. You might sell your alts too early, see everyone else make exorbitant money in days/weeks, & then take some dumb, late-cycle risks as revenge.
-It's no longer enough to get your macro bias correct to make good decisions, especially in primary markets
-Paradox of remaining open to expensive, quality winners vs dodging "bull market deals"
-The dance b/w primary & public is very interesting & also very dangerous
-Just as you need to make the highest quality decisions in the cycle, more noise, more temptations & more manic advertisements will compete for your attention
-& Finally, I have ZERO idea how this is going to play out in the next 1-2Y, but it's going to be insane:)

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More from @ninos_mansor

17 Mar
DeFi resurrects the saver from a fifty year demise.

It begins with @anchor_protocol, an economic primitive that may become crypto’s risk-free rate & foundation for fixed income.

We just published: “Resurrecting The Saver: Walking Tall with Anchor”


The report is broken up into three parts:



PART I covers:

a) The end of the saver, Nixon’s capitulation and Gold’s final deathblow. The new orthodoxy that lionized the debt-craving consumer. Purchasing power dwindling to oblivion; the decline of savings as a % of GNI and real yields wheezing their way to zero.
Read 16 tweets
8 Mar
I would be absolutely terrified to hold any form of ETH short right now. Here's a thought experiment for how reflexive and fragile market psychology is right now.

Imagine Saylor divested 10% of his treasury into ETH. I'm not saying he will - but what would happen if he did?
It's probably not going to be Saylor, but somebody is going to do it. If not the leading BTC Stonk, a blue chip tech company. If not a blue chip tech company, a brave insurance or pension fund. If not 10%, 5%.
Who is first or how large their position is ultimately won't matter. The moment a *credible* treasury allocates into ETH, the market suddenly flicks a switch and gaps like it hasn't done in years.

Shorts clobbered and reflexive narratives crystallised - overnight.
Read 6 tweets
1 Mar
DeFi’s narratives in 2021👇
Slowly chipping at TradFi credibility from synthetics to savings, injecting itself into legacy systems during moments of havoc (GME). Oasis for 24/7 price discovery in an era of dysfunctional markets. A refuge for savers in the yield-deprived sahara, without bankers & their fees.
Institutional products racing to capture inflows (Bitwise the early-mover, Grayscale the 800 pound behemoth). Wall Street rebels warm but unallocated, Wall Street dinosaurs in denial. As with BTC, they ultimately allocate by force, not by will -- client demand dictates all.
Read 8 tweets
9 Feb
Post-Musk crypto markets are going to be eclectic and confusing. Retail is now here to stay, so capital rotation becomes more idiosyncratic. $DOGE type moves that leave us totally bewildered. More chaos and randomness. Correlations fly around and confuse conditioned participants.
The entrance of Musk's retail is the return of a 2017-type market. It'll be way more fragmented vs 18/19/20. It's not a market where you can over-generalise through clear structural themes.

Alts blown off one second, pullback is over the next, lead by some random coin on WSB.
It's now a war between old retail and Musk retail. The psychology of Musk retail is very different. Musk's crowd is futuristic and open-minded. Anything is possible. Any valuation, any idea. Pure crypto retail is skeptical, wounded by bear market PTSD.
Read 8 tweets
3 Feb
The market is yet to understand Ethereum’s four-prong supply sink

Unlike the Halving, $ETH's supply-side argument is not straightforward to grasp

But once understood, just like the Halving, these dynamics will drive a quick institutional repricing 👇
1) Firstly, ETHE has re-opened for subscriptions as of early February. This is a check valve: coin that enters does not leave.

With a CME contract paving the way for institutions to arb the ETHE premium, this ultimately creates a black hole for spot $ETH.
2) While ETHE is an institutional supply sink, ETH 2.0 is a gravity well for diehard, ETH-denominated HODLERs.

Staking metrics are growing: According to @cryptoquant_com, the staking rate has grown by 250% since December and roughly 2.8m ETH ($4.3b) now sits in contract.
Read 7 tweets

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