Alt season is fun, but the majority of you will piss away profit within a few days of earning it.
You've got to iron out the factors that are going to be hugely detrimental to you playing alts successfully.
1. "I need to use leverage and buy big here, going to be a breakout, I want to be a part of it."
No. You do not. With this mindset you tend to put yourself into a "this trade is a 100% success and I just need to get into it"
Price chops, stops you out 5 times and then moves up.
When you have this mentality the thought is "I'm going to make a lot when it breaks up"
You don't consider the 5 times you may get stopped by having to have a really tight SL.
By the time you've done that, you could have entered a far smaller position and been in better profit.
Weird how that works, but it won't cross your mind. Someone with 50% of your size, with wider stops, no triggered SLs, ends up with more profit than you.
Plenty of you will know this situation all too well.
Worst of all, you don't even consider the possibility of being completely wrong. Not just being stopped out, but continually re-entering the same position over and over again when it simply isn't working and isn't going to work.
Reducing size is actually a benefit for the majority.
Less risk + less pressure to have tight stops + less risk of being stopped out + less manual management of position = more profit.
2. "I'm entering big into this position on the 4h because when it moves up it'll be big $$$."
Price moves up...
"Oh shit, look at that PnL, big green, OK, 5m chart, selling off, damn my PnL is going down, 5m candles looking really bad, urm, shit, shit, close position."
This is a classic.
Up the size for a big 4h/HTF play. Get the move, instantly move to LTF to manage the position.
Your great expectations of the trade are now overtaken by the need to NOT lose your current PnL.
Larger PnL for most people means harder to manage positions.
So again, the answer to this? If you're planning on holding a trade for the long term, scale in and add on strength.
Manage your mentality.
Lower sizes, easier to manage, add when the trade is moving in your favour.
Look to scale in and scale out of position. They are fluid, you can adapt and change, re-add and remove. Do not become bound to your entry as a "I cannot add because it will change my entry number to something higher"
Start off small.
The reality to this is simply, reduce your position size overall. If you're using leverage, you'll get lucky once or twice, but you'll throw it all back getting stopped out on similar positions in the following few days.
Reduce your size, add to winners, be adaptive in your positions, don't trade your PnL, remember the reasons you took trades in the first place, did I mentioned, REDUCE YOUR SIZE.
Conditions are about putting risk on, but sensibly, and most won't survive the shakeouts.
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Despite feeling the need to look at charts consistently it's incredibly important to learn to step back and not spend too much time on them.
Depending on the type of trader you are, or aim to be, it could be detrimental.
The need to look at charts all the time is caused by a couple of things:
1. Use of high leverage/overexposure of account - basically your size is way too big and you're micro managing your PnL to try and stay alive and ensure you don't suffer a huge loss.
2. Addiction. Yeah, unfortunately you're probably addicted, it's become a mechanical response to any downtime you have in life. Toilet > Charts. Boiling the kettle > Charts. Cooking your pasta > Charts. Wake up > Charts.
You've conditioned yourself to look at charts regularly.
Divergences are the talk of Twitter at the moment, suddenly everyone is using them, so I'm not posting any more content regarding divs.
I'll lay out the thoughts here in this final thread before I close off on this for a while and come back once we've calmed down.
The reason I won't be posting is too many anon-shithead reply guys trash the comments on my otherwise clean feed by saying "not a div" or "is a hidden div instead idiot".
So I'll just cool off from that side until they've found a new indicator they like to use.
For now this is the picture.
$BTC 4h put in a clean bearish divergence into the high last night.
I'd be looking for any impulse to take us down into the support region below.