Thread by @DavidHenigUK

There has always been a significant risk to a Northern Ireland only arrangement as part of Brexit, but the major problem for unionists is that unless the UK government reverses the choice of pure Brexit over the union there is no plausible alternative.

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1379492970026651655

It isn't ultimately the threats of republican violence that led to the Northern Ireland protocol, but a combination of US pressure, purist notions of sovereignty for Great Britain, and the DUP opposing softer Brexit solutions. The protocol was the choice of Boris Johnson.

And what happens if unionists render the protocol as it stands unworkable through violence? I would wager that no load will be able to leave GB for Northern Ireland without full checks. In other words, an even harder GB-NI border.

Because ultimately this government has demonstrated it will choose Great Britain over the UK, and no UK government can withstand pressure from both EU or US. So if the loyalists think they can bring about the end of the protocol through violence, doesn't look good.

It is reasonable to suggest the UK government has some culpability for giving the unionists the idea the protocol could be overturned, even though in at least three negotiations so far that hasn't happened. That is the carelessness previously referenced.

What of EU culpability for the Northern Ireland protocol? Certainly back in 2018 the original NI only backstop was too biased against unionists. The replacement was better. But there is only so much that can be done while the UK government wish to ignore what they signed.

It is worth adding that there are also stories, though less evident, of disruption to all-Ireland services trade due to the protocol. Nobody really understands services, hence less often stated, but it is not right to say all the problems of the protocol fall on one community.

Ultimately then the overwhelming reason for unionists feeling let down is the UK government. As unionists warned in 2019. That's inconvenient for the Brexit triumph narrative therefore rarely reported in London, but still true.

Assuming the UK government isn't going to change tack and put the union ahead of purist sovereignty for GB, then unionists are going to have to accept checks don't mean they aren't fully part of the country, potentially following the Ian Paisley senior example during BSE.

Given that Gibraltar (well led to be fair) has managed to accept border checks with the UK and not Spain, while still feeling fully part of the UK, it should be possible for that to happen in Northern Ireland as well.

Ideally we would see greater dialogue in Northern Ireland to reach a common view of the protocol. Not least because the UK government is stuck between breaching the protocol (offending the US, so no trade deal) or admitting the PM isn't a negotiating genius.

I know there isn't a lot of sympathy for Northern Ireland unionists here, particularly among their so-called friends, but I do think they have been dealt a difficult hand. But that isn't going to be navigated through violence. /end

PS absolutely not getting into the alternate explanations for Northern Ireland violence though well aware of them. The protocol is clearly enough of a factor to be worth discussing.