1/ Re $GOOGL $GOOG and their cloud business: V upbeat messaging from a Google Cloud partner interviewed by Jefferies. Have read similar stories elsewhere, that GCP is set to really accelerate this year.
2/ Given Google's still attractive valuation (especially factoring in Other Bets losses and cash on balance sheet, even better if assign meaningful valuation to under-monetised YouTube) and upside from Covid re-opening (travel-related ads 12-15% of ad revenues), the shares…
3/ …remain well-positioned to continue to perform in here in my view, despite having outperformed most of FAANG.

Jefferies hosted the CEO of a premier-level partner of Google Cloud.
4/ Key takes: 1) Outsized growth in '20: bookings grew 2.5x; 2) '21 off to fast start: est. bookings growth ~100%; 3) Cloud consumption in '21 could be faster than bookings as past deals are implemented;
5/ 4) Google Cloud products are technically strong, with BigQuery the highlight; 5) Google bringing in non-Cloud assets to win bigger Cloud deals.

Bookings grew 2.5x in '20 and accelerated each qtr.
6/ After a brief pause last March due to COVID, the expert's firm saw surprisingly fast, accelerated demand. Q2 was "very big", Q3 "huge", and Q4 "even larger".
7/ Momentum was stronger in the GCP (Google Cloud Platform) side of Google Cloud compared to the Workspace (formerly G Suite) side. This Google partner signed multiple 8-figure deals as customers were eager to make large, multi-year commitments to Cloud.
8/ Expects '21 bookings up ~100%. Q1 is off to a fast start, with bookings up ~100% for this firm, and a full-year '21 forecast also calling for ~100% growth. To meet this growth, this firm has been hiring aggressively.
9/ Headcount was up ~80% in '20 and is budgeted to increase by another ~35% in '21.

'21 deal activity more rational than '20.
10/ There was a deal frenzy in '20 as companies rushed into digital transformation and often signed 5-year deals to secure resource commitments, especially on the GCP side.
11/ '21 is looking more rational as even partners sometimes prefer 3-year deals given the large existing backlog.
12/ On the other hand, it seems Workspace bookings may benefit as cos take a more holistic view on user productivity tools after the haphazard approach of buying multiple apps in '20.

'21 GCP consumption to grow even faster than bookings.
13/ While bookings growth in '21 might not repeat '20 levels, it should remain more than robust. Consumption of Cloud resources could grow faster than bookings (their expert estimates >160% vs bookings ~100%), as deals in the backlog get implemented and usage ramps.
14/ Jefferies believe this means Cloud revenues could start catching up with Cloud backlog in '21.

Technically on par with AWS and Azure; adding customer references.
15/ The expert echoed similar comments they've heard from other industry experts in the past, i.e., that the technical superiority of GCP is well understood.
16/ The constraint in breaking down the inertia of enterprise buyers feeling more comfortable with AWS or Azure is the smaller number of reference customers.
17/ That said, Google has made significant progress in the last 12-18 months with high-profile deals such as Ford and Activision.

BigQuery continues to shine. One GCP product that continues to excel is Google's Cloud Data warehouse BigQuery.
18/ The expert's firm has won vs Hadoop, Snowflake, and Teradata. He was confident of winning 80% of bakeoffs vs SNOW thanks to BigQuery's superior performance and lower cost.

Early stages of bringing Google's non-Cloud assets to strategic deals.
19/ Google has unique non-Cloud assets such as Search, Maps, Android, YouTube, and advertising channels. Google is starting to leverage those assets in transformative, strategic deals.

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More from @anthonyc3004

9 Apr
1/ The more I work on $SPOT the more bullish I get about its long term prospects (and bearish on the long-term prospects for the big labels) and about the fact that consensus/ investors are still pretty sceptical about its ability to break free of the labels' hold on its…
2/ …margin structure, which drives really good upside at the current sub 4x forward EV/sales multiple. I think they are being deliberately very slow with putting through pricing as they currently pay so much of incremental revenue away to the labels.
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9 Apr
1/ $OSTK - interesting to see Piper call it out as the most mispriced stock in their coverage universe. Front page of note:

They see tZero as worth $500m-740m (vs mkt cap $3.1bn) and see GSA-related revs as contributing 15-25% to total sales over time. Image
2/ I didn't know that only $OSTK, $AMZN and $TMO won the GSA RFP process out of 15 applicants with $OSTK's best-in-class security commended by the GSA diligence committee, who went through an extensive 18m diligence process.
3/ Piper think this win could make $OSTK an acquisition target for other large box retailers that did not get selected as part of the GSA process. Contract began with 5 federal agencies to buy up to $6bn in annual purchases over 3 years.
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