1/ Iris Energy $IREN delivered a strong inaugural earnings presentation last night. Some takeaways in this thread...

This is clearly a company with huge growth ambitions and a very backable & professional team to deliver on them. 2/ I fully expect them to go well beyond the announced 15EH and become one of the largest players in the space in due course.

Some takeaways:

Something that stood out for me were the Long-term Target Options issued to the co-CEOs Dan and Will Roberts.

1/ Re $MARA I have had some good conversations with Charlie Schumacher their Director of Corporate Communications. Sharing some thoughts after the calls:

I'll start with putting my summary view up at the start of this (long) thread: 2/ If I model out $MARA run-rate revenue generation at a $50k BTC price, a 360EH Bitcoin network hash rate and 21EH of $MARA hashrate in early 2023 (this factors in 90% uptime vs stated 23.3 EH) I get $0.98bn in revenues and an EV/EBIT around 3.2x at that point.

1/ Re $BITF, I had a good conversation with CFO Jeffrey Lucas who joined in June 2021 and COO Geoff Morphy. Sharing some of my thoughts after the call: 2/ Summary thoughts: They are good operators delivering consistently strong monthly BTC mining results at very low cost and building out the infrastructure to support their 8EH by end 22 target.

1/ Some helpful charts from Hayden Capital's 73 page piece on $COIN:

Users trade more frequently over time (grey is users trading 1x per month, blue is >5x per month): 2/ Number of global crypto users continued to grow despite the 50% fall in #BTC etc from April to June 21. #ETH user adoption continued rapid growth too.

1/ I've been wanting to learn about Polkadot $DOT, the layer 0 blockchain ecosystem founded by Gavin Wood @gavofyork who wrote the code for Ethereum.

2/ This video, recorded back in Jan 2021, is a great @RealVision interview with Gavin in which he explains the idea and how it all works. For anyone who wants to know about $DOT it's a great watch.

1/ Brazilian Fintech co PagSeguro $PAGS put out operating results for Q3, with TPV growth of 85% and acquiring TPV growth of 49%, or up 58% ex the Corona voucher impact. They announced sequential growth of 1m PagBank active users, to 12.2m. 2/ If we put the PagBank business on the same valuation as Nubank's recent financing round (in which $BRK participated) at $30bn for 40m users that implies $9.15bn for PagBank's 12.2m users.

Haircut that by 20% for conservatism to get a $7.23bn valuation.

1/ Following up from my prior thread after call with $HUT IR @bigsuey she was kind enough to set me up with a follow-up call with Hut 8 CFO @ShaneDowney8 which was very helpful.

Prior thread was here:

https://twitter.com/anthonyc3004/status/1443598663318708230?s=20

2/ Firstly, one thing to clear up.

I misinterpreted IR comments that the company's recent $170m equity capital raise fully funds them to get to the 6 EH target by mid 22.

1/ Piper survey 10,000 US teens - some interesting stats on social media usage: Instagram continues to lead monthly usage, although falling, TikTok gaining. $SNAP remains favourite, improving its lead, TikTok second then Instagram 3rd favourite, losing 2 points. 2/ $PINS gender skew among teens higher than I'd have thought - 90% skew. TikTok 64% skewed to females. Discord most skewed to men at 77% followed by Twitter (67% male skew) then $FB (65% male skew). $SNAP most balanced gender usage.

1/ $CME looks interesting in here. For PMs who are looking for ways to hedge long duration equity exposures against risk of rising rates there are not many high quality businesses available (balance sheet financials and energy not really top-of-mind for many). 2/ $CME is the monopoly US interest rate derivatives exchange (as well as dominant positions in commodity futures markets) and has strong operating leverage to an increase in US bond futures/ Eurodollar trades undertaken to hedge against inflation risks.

Re $SPOT, I see a very favourable alignment between the longer-term attractive risk-reward profile and a near-term attractive setup.

These alignments don't happen very often but are what I look for in order to size up conviction in a position. I think the setup for $SPOT here is stand-out attractive. I'll outline why in this pretty long thread.

I posted a few brief thoughts post their Q2 21 results here:

https://twitter.com/anthonyc3004/status/1422945079786881024?s=20

1/ For those interested in bitcoin miners, I had a call with @bigsuey IR of Hut 8 $HUT which was very constructive. I have a follow-up call with the CFO next week so will post up any clarification points but for now, the key takeaways are: 2/ $HUT's recent capital raise fully funds their buildout to 6 EH. They did have a C$500 shelf stock offering filing but recent raise plus earlier one now means that's nearly fully used up (big contrast to $BITF who have their entire C$500 ATM shelf overhanging).

1/ Bernstein piece out today is interesting — they compare the gross vs the net take rates of $BABA vs $PDD. Thread below: 2/ The gross take rates are similar while Alibaba adjusted net take rate (revenue minus sales and marketing spend as a % of transacted GMV) runs at 5% vs $PDD used to run below 2% before a big spike in the most recent quarter to 4% (and PDD have said not to expect this level…

1/ Some thoughts on $SPOT after reflecting on Q2 21 results.

Summary thoughts:

I think the MAU miss has had a disproportionately negative impact on the share price, as it was the second quarter in a row of MAU coming in below expectations. 2/ The 22% yoy growth in MAUs they did achieve given some self-inflicted email signup issues and an emerging market Covid impact whereby they fully pulled back from marketing spend in India which impacted signups is by no means a terrible outcome.

1/ Re $SPOT, helpful and positive take-aways from the IPO presentation for a digital label called Believe (believemusic.com), French domiciled and run but with strong market positions in a large number of geographies. 2/ Over time, they plan to be in all the 130-140 geographies that $SPOT are/ will be in.

Key to this business is they are positioned for a move to a digital music world, which they see fully playing out globally by 2030 and within 5 years in Europe.

1/ On $OSTK, Piper out again, reiterating their conviction in the stock as the most mispriced in their coverage universe. 2/ They see the upcoming launch of tZero Crypto 2.0 as a material unlock to higher Crypto trading activity (the platform currently has a v low trading limit of $500/ week which will change to $25k/ day with the Version 2.0).

1/ $TMUS - very high conviction holding, a few musings. I'd been underwriting to $220 ish on the basis of 15x $15 in FCF/share in 3 years. I see 19.4% IRR based on 15x their guided ("more than") $18bn in FCF by 2026 & adjusting for $60bn buyback. 2/ Some may feel stock right up there and hence missed it but trading at same level as in Nov 20 with super strong FCF growth & buyback story ahead, still looks timely to me and breaking out of 6m sideways trading range:

1/ The more I work on $SPOT the more bullish I get about its long term prospects (and bearish on the long-term prospects for the big labels) and about the fact that consensus/ investors are still pretty sceptical about its ability to break free of the labels' hold on its… 2/ …margin structure, which drives really good upside at the current sub 4x forward EV/sales multiple. I think they are being deliberately very slow with putting through pricing as they currently pay so much of incremental revenue away to the labels.

1/ $OSTK - interesting to see Piper call it out as the most mispriced stock in their coverage universe. Front page of note:

They see tZero as worth $500m-740m (vs mkt cap $3.1bn) and see GSA-related revs as contributing 15-25% to total sales over time. 2/ I didn't know that only $OSTK, $AMZN and $TMO won the GSA RFP process out of 15 applicants with $OSTK's best-in-class security commended by the GSA diligence committee, who went through an extensive 18m diligence process.

1/ Re $GOOGL $GOOG and their cloud business: V upbeat messaging from a Google Cloud partner interviewed by Jefferies. Have read similar stories elsewhere, that GCP is set to really accelerate this year. 2/ Given Google's still attractive valuation (especially factoring in Other Bets losses and cash on balance sheet, even better if assign meaningful valuation to under-monetised YouTube) and upside from Covid re-opening (travel-related ads 12-15% of ad revenues), the shares…