What if - hear me out - what if each regulator is deciding against the backdrop of its own country. Almost as if the German regulator decides for Germany and the UK one for the UK? Let's look at this - surprising - hypothesis /1
The UK program relies on AZ to a large extent. It does have other vaccines, though. So - following our hypothesis - it will be cautious replacing AZ, it will do so to a more limited extent.
Germany does not get that much AZ, because AZ delivers 1/3 of the originally scheduled deliveries. For a doze of AZ it has 3 of Pfizer. Accordingly it can "limit" the AZ recommendation more - because that still means that 100% of the AZ delivered will be used.
The mistake is to regard the German decision as an attack on the UK system or the UK decision as an attack on the German one. Each regulator decides for the circumstances of the country. And does not quite care about how the population of the other one takes the decision.
Curiously this seemed intuitive for US, Canadian, Swiss and Norwegian decisions. EU decisions were taken as relating to the UK. The no longer do. UK decisions no longer relate to the EU.
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Complex research in the western world is - more often than not - a collaborative effort also when it comes to financing. To pretend this is not the case puts research at risk. Here are the funders of the Jenner Institute, the Oxford vaccine innovaters.
Not every funder is involved in every project. CEPI, though, was a major funder of Oxford/AZ Covid work.
Of course, the chart would be read in the context of the AZ wars. Its importance in this regard is somewhat limited, though. /2
You can still have a debate on how to read the various contracts etc. The one line that is problematic is that any one country deserve a first shot at the vaccine because it invested more. The truth is: collaboration.
Always astonished by human capacity for mental exaggeration. Just take a look at the journey of public opinion on the UK. Starting point "a very competent country". (thread)
During the Brexit campaign, politics became disconnected from the civil service and some... let's say extraordinary things were said and done. At first people thought there must be a secret plan - precisely because of the amount of respect for competency.
But there was no secret plan. Suddenly people started to think "are we fundamentally incompetent? What is wrong with us?".
Allow me to tell you a short story of pharma patents in world trade. The story start in the old days of GATT. Where patents were decidedly not part of world trade law (thread)
In those old days, it was a decision of each country whether to grant patents or not. Each country had to think "will this be a good choice for us? an incentive for research? Or actually counterproductive exclusivity?"
But in some developing countries this was perceived as unfair. In the US some thought "we pay higher prices for innovation. You just get it for free". Pharma patents were central to the debate.
There’s a lot of muddled thinking on what the problem with export bans is. So... in the form of a Q&A, a quick overview (thread)
1) Is it the rule of law?
Two components to this, arguably. Is there a problem because it interferes with private contracts? Not really. Most regulatory power does. Take Brexit: it interferes with thousands of contracts. Or the UK ban on parallel exports of some medicines. What about international law?