It has taken a day or two but @tom_bullock_ has brought together this @JanesINTEL article on observed Russian troop movements to the border with Ukraine: janes.com/defence-news/n… Image
Tom has identified at least 14 separate Russian units, including what may be the 119 Missile Brigade with Iskanders. The moves at present appear benign and somewhat leisurely. And, as others have observed, there are few signs of an offensive nature at present. Image
There has been some cyber activity recently, including a state-sponsored attack on a Ukrainian government site in an attempt to steal data, and there was much greater activity in February. But, there are no clear signs of a targeted campaign. Which we might expect to precede war.
However, it is worth noting that if something were to happen - these forces would be quite well positioned to do something about it, and much of Russia's cyber infrastructure can be activated very quickly and with ease.
So, ruling out an immediate threat of conflict, there are many other options explaining the deployment. For instance, sometimes an exercise really is just an exercise. This kind of move was fairly routine for Soviet forces - the Russians might be feeling rusty. Image
It might be an effort to influence or coerce Ukraine, but again, there were already thousands of Russian troops on the border, and Ukraine is unlikely to harbour many illusions about how a war with Russia would play out. So, it doesn't necessarily follow that more force is needed Image
It might be an effort to demonstrate resolve to NATO and the EU, and indicate the level of commitment required to adequately counter Russia's armed forces. We shall have to wait and see how the situation develops.
Possibly more interesting signs could include the movement of troops at night, and away from population centres to avoid sightings. Efforts to establish different conflicting lines of advance. Pre-positioning of fuel dumps and spare parts. An increase in cyber and info ops. Image
Finally, it is worth considering what Russia would gain from another conflict - Ukraine already has a trade deal with the EU, and Russian pressure pushes it closer to NATO clearly. These are both sub-optimal outcomes for the Kremlin. There is the question of water on Crimea...
But there are presumably less-risky options to resolving that issue than war. I would hazard the guess that if there is any motivation outside of testing the ability to do it, it is related to a need to be taken seriously. Just a few thoughts - enjoy the article!

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More from @Sam_Cranny

28 Sep 20
A quarterly reminder that tracking and engaging UAVs is not a simple or easy task. These videos release by an Azeri YouTube outlet show what are supposedly Baryaktar TB2 strikes against Armenia:
A lot of the targets shown are short range air defence assets, notionally designed to protect a forces against low flying aircraft and helos. Some limited ability to engage missiles could be present too.
Why does this keep happening? Drones being used to smash air defences and other vehicles seemingly at will? Well, first off, locating and tracking UAVs is hard. They can be built largely from composites or plastic as opposed to metals like large aircraft.
Read 12 tweets
26 Sep 20
I think a few analysts might dispute this. The PLA airports are outnumbered by Indian ones in the LOAC region, and the PLAAF is aware of this. There’s a rail route under construction, but the short term stuff would depend on which side had control of the sky.
This kind of rhetoric is partially fuelled by the last war; China had to relinquish its territorial gains as it could not support its troops. This may be intended to signal that it won’t be the same next time. There have definitely been improvements eg the joint logistics force Image
But fighting in mountains is hard, and the forces assigned to the Tibetan MD aren’t that numerous. They’d be relying on PLAGF forces from elsewhere to maintain the fight. And, more importantly, the planes and roads to get them there. All infrastructure could be threatened. Image
Read 5 tweets
25 Sep 20
So it seems that Project Convergence got off to a rocky start. Of the two Excalibur rounds fired, one failed in flight and missed its target, the other one came close. A UAV replicating a future VTOL capability engaged one target with a GBU, the second GBU-69 failed and was lost. Image
In the third phase the mortars used by deployed infantry intended to replicate NGCV missed all targets with all shots fired. The network, which utilised MEO and LEO satellites as well as Prometheus AI seems to have performed adequately.
Director of the Network Cross-Functional Team (CFT) Major GeneralPeter Gallagher told Janes that this was an experiment, with the network built in a very short space of time, from the ground up. Expect more developments of the project in the near future.
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep 20
Some more info on that USMC force concept for 2030 from General David Berger: He states that the USMC is still set up for a conflict on the Korean peninsula, and that this isn't optimal for any future conflict. However, conventional large amphibious assault ships will remain. Image
Berger adds that the decision to divest tanks and towed artillery has been difficult. But it is unlikely that the USMC will need to land multiple brigades across multiple beaches. Marines will be located on multiple ships, rather than one, and able to go ashore whenever they want
“We have to spread out. We have to have a dispersed, distributed force lay down in the Pacific. Our posture must change,” Berger said. The navy and marines are working together on a long-term shipbuilding plan. However, Berger stressed that funds were limited. Image
Read 4 tweets
24 Sep 20
Whilst I am waiting for something to load, here are some pictures of an MLRS on a Chinese EQ2050. New developments are coming thick and fast for the PLAGF - especially in the indirect fires segment. ImageImage
Recent developments include a new 4x4 122 mm GOAT, as well as an ATGM carrier for Tibet as well as PLC-181 GOATs for a few theatre commands, Janes articles here: janes.com/defence-news/n… and here respectively: janes.com/defence-news/n… ImageImage
Janes has also reported on a tracked amphibious bridging system: janes.com/defence-news/n… And most recently a new recce vehicle based on the Type 05 amphibious platform: janes.com/defence-news/n… ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
24 Sep 20
There aren’t many ways to interpret Beijing’s sentiments here. I’ve been thinking recently of some analysis I have read that suggests the coming decade will be the one in which China makes its big moves on Taiwan etc. The theory is as follows:
Beijing has apparently calculated that the US/West has a short memory. The CCP supposedly realises that following the Tiananmen Square massacre in 89, it took around 20 years for this to be forgotten, which was marked by the 08 Olympics, the theorists claim.
They claim that the latest that Beijing can militarily retake Taiwan, and other territory, is 2030, as this will give the west time to forget, and allow a celebration in 2049 of National Rejuvenation. This decade is therefore called the “Decade of Concern.” Image
Read 5 tweets

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