We're approaching 100 days of Brexit - so how have the so-called `Project Fear' predictions played out? Here's a breakdown 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
In 2016, the Treasury said the short-term impact of voting for Brexit and triggering Article 50 would cause an immediate recession, a plunge in house prices, a spike in unemployment and knock 3.6% off GDP within 2 years 2/ assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
This prediction was well overblown. Triggering Article 50 was delayed to March 2017, and GDP, employment levels and house prices had all improved 2 years on from the referendum 3/ 
The government's pro-Remain leaflet sent to all homes in April 2016 said a vote for Brexit would mean an increase in living costs (weaker pound making imported goods more expensive). This came true 4/
The Treasury's long-term forecast for the impact of Brexit back in 2016 was the economy being ~5%-8% smaller within 15 years, compared to staying in the EU. The OBR now says it'll be about 4% smaller, and GDP is already down 1.4% since the referendum 5/
The government's Remain leaflet also said Brexit would increase costs for businesses and make exports harder. This has come true 6/
https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1348911168002412545
U.K. exports to the EU fell ~40% in January compared to the previous month -- the government said stockpiling and coronavirus lockdowns played a big role, and they claim trade has since normalized. We'll get the latest official data on Tuesday... 7/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Various strong claims were made about the City of London in 2016, with one PwC report saying 100,000 financial services jobs could be lost. In fact, only 7,600 roles have relocated to the EU, according to EY. However, the City has suffered in other ways 8/ bloomberg.com/news/features/…
The Leave campaign didn't make such specific predictions about the economic benefits of Brexit -- save for the famous pledge to re-direct £350m to the NHS each week. Here's how that's going... 9/
The £350m claim was always too large, because Britain's net contribution was more like £250m once you'd factored in its rebate. Plus it got a significant chunk back through EU public sector spending.. 10/
And even then, Britain still has to pay ~£20bn to the EU over the next 7 years as part of its financial settlement for the divorce, so that sucks up any funds that might have been going to the NHS 11/ commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-brief…
And while Theresa May's government announced an extra £394m per week for the NHS in real terms from 2023, it won't be paid for by cost savings on EU membership. Brexit's negative effect on GDP and the hit to tax receipts will be greater than the saving on EU contributions 12/
So, 100 days of Brexit and the economic picture is fairly clear. Many short-term predictions were too strong, but we've since seen a negative effect on trade and growth. The pandemic has overshadowed much of it. Big test will come when businesses are all open... 13/
And Britain imposes the full panoply of Brexit checks on imports (deferred to 2022) 14/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
See our full analysis on the `Project Fear' claims here ends/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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