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Rachel Bitecofer πŸ“ˆπŸ”­πŸŒ Profile picture
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9 Apr, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I posted this once before & many of you took issue w the topic of the analysis, some w/o reading the article I'd add.

The economists who launched the OG study did so bc data suggested there was a relationship between child gender & divorce. They wanted to test that hypo &
2.found that indeed, divorce rates were higher for families w girls than boys.

The economists that REASSESSED this OG work, to verify it & better understand it, did verify relationship BUT added IMP nuance: effect is refined to 1st kid & soon- the effect disappears as kid ages.
3. And here's where it gets interesting: there's enough men out there who divorce their wives when she fails to produce a male "heir" on the 1st try STILL for there to be a statistically significant "divorce" effect if you have a girl instead of a boy on child 1.

YES- even NOW!
4. One more comment: when social scientists/data scientists/scientists are studying & or sharing controversial questions it does not mean they, themselves are racist/bigots/sexists.

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More from @RachelBitecofer

Rachel Bitecofer πŸ“ˆπŸ”­πŸŒ Profile picture
1 Apr
Great @Center4Politics analysis that builds off my theory about the predictive power of demos (which predict party).

Nice to see how mainstream my crazy theory has become & to see it being modeled so compellingly centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Again, the theory & model I invented & debuted in 2018 was unique bc it argued the two party vote share could be modeled off of PVI, college edu, & diversity.

This is what this model builds off of. And very nicely I might add.

Predicting vote share, not party.
You can recap that modeling and the theory that drove it here, when I first use the same method to forecast Ds winning the WH in 2020... more than a year out of the election. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Read 5 tweets
Rachel Bitecofer πŸ“ˆπŸ”­πŸŒ Profile picture
20 Mar
1. At a time period when democracy everywhere was already pressured, in part by active measures deployed both by conservatives & by Putin-making use of tech, a global pandemic was pretty much a worst-case scenario to heighten tensions which after party/ideo play out on edu lines
2. That's why its not an accident that the recent CIA report, which confirmed RUSSIA, not China (Trump Admin officials directly lied about this in Oct & Nov of 2020) interfered in the 2020 election- working hard to reelect Trump who was dismantling democracy in the U.S. also is
3. also hard at work in the U.S. and elsewhere trying to spread misinfo about the vaccines and the virus. If they can keep the pandemic going, they can thwart economic recovery. They are using us to destroy ourselves & we seem incapable of dealing w it, bc the party that benefits
Read 4 tweets
Rachel Bitecofer πŸ“ˆπŸ”­πŸŒ Profile picture
15 Mar
1. In a 3-tweet thread VA Speaker of the House @EFillerCorn endorses @MarkHerringVA in his reelection bid for VA Atty Gen.

That was an easy 1, but the VA Gov race is going to get CROWDED, likely on both sides. That said, as a former Gov @TerryMcAuliffe is the clear D frontrunner
2. The GOP nomination is already a shit show for VA Reps, who are trying to avoid nominating VA's version of MTG, @AmandaChaseVA. Chase was packing heat on the VA house floor long before MTG ran for Congress, until the Ds took control & imposed sanity. Her nomination would harken
3. back to the 2018 cycle, when GOP voters insisted on nominating a diff known white supremacist- Corey Stewart. Unlike many other Reps, some VA Rs, or at least right-leaning Indies, refused to support Stewart. Was clear in the ballot returns that Kaine received more crossover/
Read 11 tweets
Rachel Bitecofer πŸ“ˆπŸ”­πŸŒ Profile picture
15 Mar
1. Partisanship is a hellava drug. I am continually shocked to hear some members of Congress, the press, just the gen public, who, even after the past 5 yrs, have not really come to terms w how tragically affected we've been by hyperpartisanship. Trump hid to take his vaccine.
2. He'll never do a PSA to tell his own voters who are only rejecting science & who are only dying this way bc Trump & his fellow GOP Govs like Desantis, Abbott, Kemp, & others LED them into endangering their health- & in many cases, dying. This is the cold hard truth that Abbott
3. Trump, et al. will one day hopfully be forced to face- in this world or the next. They intentionally led people to their deaths. And those people that they led? Those people exposed other people and led THEM to their deaths. Doctors. Nurses. Grocery store employees. People who
Read 8 tweets
Rachel Bitecofer πŸ“ˆπŸ”­πŸŒ Profile picture
14 Mar
I've absolutely been expecting a party gap (conditioned on edu) since Trump 1st did the unthinkable & made the pandemic a culture war issue. Further, my expectations are that the last or late stages of the pandemic will be taking a disproportionate toll on Rs (who are white men)
But as others have pointed out, I think there WILL be a big diff between reported refusal & actual. And again, conditioned on edu....sadly. Less edu are more likely to actually reject it. Experiencing this in my own family, btw. My brother who has one functional lung but is
Convinced the virus is harmless.
Read 4 tweets
Rachel Bitecofer πŸ“ˆπŸ”­πŸŒ Profile picture
14 Mar
1. Already suffering from severe fibromyalgia (since age 20) one of the other reasons I have worked stridently to avoid getting COVID other than fear of death is this: Long COVID or COVID "Long-Haulers." Before I fell ill in my 20s I was a solid athlete & fearless. Within 5 yrs
2. had symptoms severe enough to present as severe Rheumatoid arthritis and MS. I have now lived w this mysterious, excruciating condition for as long as I got to live w/o out & many of the things "long-haulers" are dealing w are similar to my symptoms. I've never really talked
3. about my illness, or the way it derailed by life & blunted my health (esp. for the 6 yrs I spend as a fulltime worker w no health insurance when the condition 1st set in & I had to leave it undiagnosed as I couldn't see doctors), pre-Obamacare this was. Long haul symptoms
Read 8 tweets

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