Thread by @KelleyCurrie

🧵Against my better judgment & the advice of mental health professionals, I am going to try to live-tweet this UNSC Arria on #WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar.
First, tho, some throat-clearing. I find this whole thing infuriating because @UKUN_NewYork could have organized an Arria on 2/2.

Arria meetings are the lowest common denominator & least formal options available to the Security Council & pretty much anyone can convene one any time. It is a travesty that it has taken 65 days to hold one & that there has still been no formal agenda item added to the Council.

As the 'penholder' on Burma, and the rotating president of the Council in February, @UKUN_NewYork bears much responsibility for this failure of diplomacy & failure of leadership. Two months, and 600 lives lost, because of weak leadership on the part of the so-called like-minded

pro-democracy & human rights countries on the Council, especially the P3: the US, UK & France. They have dithered and deferred to China & Russia instead of forcing action. Their fear of a veto is both misplaced and should not have been the guiding principle for their diplomacy.

Listening to the lovely Sai Sam. He's right: moral failure by the Council, especially but not exclusively those who have been actively blocking action in the Council. Sai Sam spent decades working with civil society inside Myanmar during some of the worst times of military rule.

He worked with several organizations that managed to work in very closed environments, taking criticism from all sides, but staying focused on working with local communities to strengthen their resilience. He's one of the quiet heroes in Burma who gets little attention. So good

for the UK to include him today. Which makes the selection of the next speaker all the more puzzling. I'm not going to even mention his name. He has been wrong about so much that I can't even. Even when he's right, its usually for wrong reasons & only when things are blindingly

obvious to the point that no other conclusion is possible. This person has consistently denigrated & dismissed ethnic nationalities, civil society, democracy and pretty much any activists who aren't technocratic development wallahs. And now he's discovered that the Burmese people

actually & seriously care about freedom & democracy, he's saying nice things about same EAOs & the pro-democracy forces, who I have heard him dismiss as, respectively, a bunch of corrupt thieves (EAOs) and "a spent force" (NLD) even as he praised the Thein Sein govt as reformers.

Its puzzling to me why anyone would listen to anything he says given how wrong he has consistently been. So of course his recommendations lean into channels that have done nothing useful up to now: ASEAN, the Special Envoy & "Council unity." And now -- after decades of being

an advocate for Tatmadaw-enabling Third Force nonsense & opposing any sanctions inc. in response to a freaking genocide, all in the name of "development"--he acknowledges that some sanctions might be useful, he heavily qualifies the recommendation. I just can't. Even. With. This.

And now my friend @zinmaraung1976 - who is the interim foreign minister of @CRPHMyanmar. Her remarks speak for themselves, but I will highlight a couple things:
- ZMA (as she's known) has a background in civil society in addition to being the younger generation leadership of NLD

-So do her colleagues in forming the CRPH, Lwin Ko Latt & Phyu Phyu Thin. This is evident when she talks about how CRPH is working really hard to engage with civil society, ethnic organizations, the CDM and other stakeholders.
-The new federal charter they released last week is

a good basis for progress going forward, as it recognizes that the core problem is the fact that Burma has never taken care of the post-colonial nation and state building problems that it inherited in 1947, and it is an incomplete nation that retains deeply rooted discrimination

at the core of the unitary system the military has imposed for the past 70 years.

Highlight of the @EstoniaUN presentation: openly calling for tabling a UNSC resolution that includes coercive measures, specifically an arms embargo. This is the most important part. Its what the UK has not been willing to do up to now, and its pointed directly at Russia & China.

Now from @NorwayUN a rather anodyne statement, ticking the boxes: gender, press freedom, non-violence, humanitarian access. Reference to Rohingya & how this crisis makes their safe return more unlikely, helpful. Expecting ASEAN to help, not so much. Danced around resolution.

And now @USUN @USAmbUN who repeats the annoying "stands with you" thing & says they will do "everything in our power" - which is patently not accurate. Then also repeats the myth that Council has been strong, clear & unified when they have, in reality, been anything but.

I've done a couple streams on the BS "speaking with one voice" thing, so won't revisit, but its become my absolute pet peeve. Now talking about things that can be done, and noting that some countries have taken these steps. Again, this just highlights the lack of unanimity & weak

actions.
And now we get demands for some useless actions: letting Special Envoy into Burma (to do what? no idea?), leaning into useless ASEAN delaying tactics.
Lots of "we have to act" but no specific mention of moving forward with a resolution. Missed opportunity by @USUN.

And now @franceonu. Table setting...calls for urgent action...support for Special Envoy's region, disappointed she can't go to Burma.🙄 Good stuff: "Unity should not mean inaction." Call for UNGA action: will annoy Russia & China & is a useful reminder. Strong point on Rohingya.

So @irishmissionun - my old colleague Amb. Flynn. Hey Bryan! Highlights: support for targeted sanctions.
And then my Internet dropped for 2 minutes. Grrr...
And just in time for Special Envoy, ASEAN talking points - did I miss anything?
Point on Internet is helpful reminder.

Now @MexOnu PR. Appreciate point on airstrikes in Karen state. NB: Tatmadaw use of fixed wing aircraft against civilian populations needs more attention. This Arria would have benefitted from having ethnic voices from the ground - who, despite the situation, are available.
Good

to call back to Annan Commission - I believe this is the first reference to that. Great job also calling out the democracy movement on Rohingya. Well done by Mexico.

Next: @PmTunisia which, together with Niger, are the only Muslim majority country currently on the Council. Similar points on Rohingya as France. Shout out to @CrphMyanmar federal charter; weakened otherwise strong statement by echoing China/Russia points on 'not exacerbating.'

Vietnam, current Council president. Calling for "all parties" to stop violence, respect for territorial integrity/sovereignty, etc. - ugh. ASEAN centrality stuff. Overall, about what you would expect. Will have to go back and see if there is something to latch on there.

And now Niger - the other Muslim majority country. Condemns attacks on civilians but then calls for close engagement with junta, using all diplomatic channels. Dialogue only way out of 'all-out civil war.' Regional implications, including for Rohingya.

OK - @IndiaUNNewYork: Council "speaking with one voice"; condemns use of violence, calls for maximum restraint - doesn't say who using violence. Rule of law & democratic transition. India "has highest stakes" in ensuring peaceful resolution due long border. Need engagement, UN

should play its role. Now talking about Rohingya but weirdly only referring to them as 'displaced persons' - won't actually call them Rohingya. That's not helpful.
Comments on India's involvement in the horrific Rakhine State development initiative - also not helpful. 😒

Now @KenyaMissionUN - strong start & finish on constitutionalism & rule of law, but falls back on regional organization. Problematic but understandable. Kenya's exp is w/ a relevant regional organization, @AfricanUnion, that has actual capabilities in this area, unlike ASEAN.

The @RussiaUN & @Chinamission2un statements are about what you would expect. Lower level of representation. Russia aggressively rejecting premise of the meeting, as usual, and China sticking to its talking points, trying to have things both ways.

Now we get Amb. Kyaw Moe Tun, the Myanmar PR.
Note on atmospherics: He has U Win Myint's picture behind him. Refers to ZMA as acting FM. Goes right after the Tatmadaw. Calls on international community & UNSC to stop atrocities. Need more than support; need strong action in UNSC.

Specifically mentions "collective action" - which is reference to Chapter 7 responsibilities of UNSC. Puts death of civilians, other bad acts on the delay of UNSC. Top priority is saving lives. On behalf of people of Myanmar, asks for: protection of civilians; humanitarian aid to

all in need; allowing refugees safe haven; no-fly-zone; arms embargo; coordinated, effective sanctions on military, businesses, families, bank accounts; blocking of financial flows; FDI suspension. Calls on all @UN member states to take all available actions now. Only sustainable

solution is to end the military bloodbath. Saving lives & prevention of human suffering - this is the responsibility of the international community & UN. Need collective, concrete, timely, decisive. Invokes #R2PforMyanmar. We will remember who helped us in our time of need.

That was a strong, pointed statement. Aimed directly at China & Russia, so it perfect that it followed their lame interventions. Especially poked giant hole in their arguments about sovereignty. @zinmaraung1976 also making point that Burmese people are ready to pay any price.

Love that Sai Sam invoked the #MilkTeaAlliance , love the calling out the international community weak sauce responses up to now, and call for international accountability. Love that he mentioned that the social compact between the Tatmadaw & Burmese people is irrevocably broken.

Terrible closing words from @UKUN_NewYork: longstanding policy of UK to recognize states, not governments. This is such nonsense. Why do this? So awful and profoundly unhelpful. Undercuts any good will they may have gotten on the ground with Burmese people by hosting Arria.

A few closing thoughts of my own:
- As usual, best thing about the Arria was hearing directly from effected people.
- Second most important thing that happened was it usefully & fully exposed the lie the Council is "speaking with one voice." This fiction needs to be abandoned.

- Estonia wins the prize of most useful MS intervention for explicitly calling for a resolution.
- UK & India tie for least helpful interventions by democracies. Not terribly surprising but yet very disappointing performance from UKUN. Feel a little bad piling on today, but

their handling of Burma has ben so badly done on nearly all fronts & continues to compound past FCO mistakes. An US not doing much better, so UK hardly alone with disappointing response.
- Continued willingness of any member state to look to either ASEAN or the Special Envoy for

results is very problematic.
-The distance between what the Burmese representatives themselves are calling for -- collective action, coercive measures, #R2PforMyanmar -- and where the P5 sit is massive. La France is probably the most forward leaning of the P5 at this point. They

should consider taking the pen from UK, working with Estonia, Norway, Ireland & the Burmese mission/@CrphMyanmar on a draft resolution and just drop it on the table. Otherwise, we get more useless nonsense from the Council in perpetuity.
- We can def. expect more Russia & China

se flag burnings in Burma after today. While their performances were about what I would have expected, they are really lighting any future relationships beyond the Tatmdaw on fire with this whole "non-interference", both-sides crap. For Russia, it doesn't matter because all they

care about is selling weapons to the Tatmadaw, so they don't need to be liked on the ground. For China, however, they have infrastructure, stuff that can be blown up & a long unstable border. I expected bit more nuance, but they seem intent on trying to keep a foot in two boats.

- Finally, its worth noting how Burmese representatives--CRPH, PR & civil society--were emphatic that they don't see any point in trying to engage or negotiate with the Tatmadaw and that efforts to do so will not yield any good results for the Burmese people. The like-mindeds

need to take note & stop acting as if the passage of time will make situation better. It won't.
They also need to recognize how their current strategy not only risks wider war & state failure, but also plays directly into Chinese & Russian strengths.
FINI! Hope y'all enjoyed it!