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Trevor Tombe Profile picture
@trevortombe
Apr 9, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Today's data: jobs!! 🚨🥳 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti… Employment up in March over 300k, mostly in Ontario. Here's all provinces. #cdnecon Image
Labour market recovery continuing in March, with the employment rate back above 60% -- though roughly 1.5-2 points below pre-COVID levels. Image
Important slack remains, though, especially among young women. Young men's employment rates have almost returned though young women remain roughly five points below pre-COVID levels. Image
Why the difference? Largest source of weakness in the labour market remains the sectors heavily affected by the public health crisis. Accommodation and food services will hopefully rebound relatively quickly as we get to the other side of this. Image
Across #cdnecon, we're just shy of 300k jobs below pre-COVID levels. Some provinces further behind than others, and BC even now exceeds its pre-COVID employment levels. Here's all provs: Image

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More from @trevortombe

Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Feb 20
Today's data: inflation! 🥳 Prices were 2.9%, on average, higher in January than a year earlier. Inflation down from 3.4% in Dec. Biggest contributors to the drop were energy, food, travel. Cell phones offsetting some.



#cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
Looking at the headline rate, shelter is larger contributor. Rent accounts for ~0.5 points of the 2.9, mortgage interest costs ~1.0 points.

Important: note the strong decline in the pace of grocery price growth. Now in line with historical norm. Image
The decline in inflation has also been fairly broad based, with now fewer than half of items seeing a pace of price growth above 3% -- although still a larger share than normal, which is ~0.3-0.4. Image
Read 7 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Jan 16
Today's data: inflation!! 📈 Consumer prices were 3.4% higher in December than one year earlier. That's up from 3.1% in November.

I'll explore some of what's going on. #cdnecon #cdnpoli 🧵 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
This is higher than last month, true, but it doesn't mean the inflation situation is worsening. I noted this yesterday, saying 3.4% was the number to watch.
This is a *very* important point to keep in mind for the next *several* months. Even if things are completely normal month-by-month, the headline rate won't fall much over the next quarter. Image
Read 9 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Nov 21, 2023
As expected, inflation fell in October. A lot. From 3.8% in September to 3.1% in October. And monthly, adjusted for seasonality, prices were lower in October than Sept.

I'll unpack some more patterns here 🧵 #cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
A big part of the reason is from lower gasoline prices. That's anticipated because oil prices were down. There's a tight connection between energy's contribution to CPI and oil prices (obviously). This has been a consistent story over the past two years. Image
You can see the size of the contribution from energy to the change in inflation since September here 👇 . Basically everything else was a net wash. Image
Read 11 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Nov 11, 2023
Some Alberta Pension Plan proponents are concerned about Albertans paying more in contributions than they receive in benefits. Is this "overcontribution" legitimate? If so, does it imply the CPP is unfair? Would an APP solve it?

Allow me to explain. 🧵🤓 #cdnpoli #ableg #cdnecon
The Government of Alberta regularly cites $60 billion in excess contributions over what has been received in benefits. The report commissioned by the government includes this figure. Red is Alberta. Positive means contributions > benefits. 👇 Image
The data are accurate. You don't even need an actuary. Statistics Canada reports this annually. Total contributions from 1966-2021 amount to approximately $60 billion. Adjusting for inflation provides a clearer perspective. Image
Read 14 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Nov 4, 2023
To better understand this claim, consider an equally true but misleading statement: eliminating the GST would "reduce inflation by 61%"! 😲

Does that mean the GST is inflationary? What about the carbon tax?

I'll try to clarify things 🧵 🤓 #cdnecon #cdnpoli
The GST adds 5% to the cost of purchasing a good or service subject to this tax. Not all items are subject to it, though. I (roughly) estimate that, overall, the GST adds an average of 2.3% for consumer expenditures as a whole. (From here: )www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…
So, eliminating the GST would drop the CPI by 2.3%. Since the latest inflation reading is 3.8%, that would leave us at 1.5% (assuming nothing else changed). And 1.5% is 61% lower than 3.8%.

Simple. But not helpful or informative.
Read 10 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Oct 20, 2023
Thrilled that my paper on an Alberta Pension Plan was accepted for publication in Canadian Public Policy! 🥳

While it will take time to appear in the journal (March issue), the final version is here: #ableg #cdnecon 🧵 🤓papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
In the paper, I develop a detailed model of an APP using the latest data and clear methods. It's also the foundation of the @FONCanada APP simulator: financesofthenation.ca/2023/10/03/a-n…
It focuses on the long-term prospects for a separate provincial plan and uses the same approach as for the CPP. It estimates what the contribution rate needs to be to ensure that plan assets over time keep up with benefit expenditures. Image
Read 10 tweets

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