Thread by @peripatetical

Hi @bruce_haigh - I can't help with the politics, but I might be able to help with the maths.

https://twitter.com/bruce_haigh/status/1380495148816035841

As a person in their 70s in Australia, if you had gotten COVID last year, on average you'd have a 38% chance of being hospitalized, a 7% chance of going to ICU, and a 10% chance of dying.

Obviously not everyone got infected, but during 2020, 6 in every 100,000 (1 in 16,000) people in their 70s needed ICU for COVID, and 8 in every 100,000 (1 in 12500) people died from COVID. This was obviously higher in Victoria than elsewhere, and who knows what 2021 will bring.

You could reduce this risk in the future by getting vaccinated. If you get the AZ vaccine, there is a small risk (about 1 in 200,000 people, or 0.00005% chance) that you might get a clotting disorder.

Or you could wait for Pfizer, which doesn't seem to be associated with this rare clotting disorder. I obviously don't know your personal circumstances and you may want to discuss this with your GP. Hope that helps with your decision.

.@behrooz_hm pointed out I'd got the percentage wrong - 1 in 200,000 is 0.0005% (you get the idea - it's a rare condition)