New 🏴‍☠️Pirates of Finance episode out!

@JasonMutiny and I talk collectibles and have a special guest on to talk about the world of Scotch.

If you enjoy, please like, subscribe, and leave us a comment!

And if you don’t, let us know that too!

@JasonMutiny Some highlights…

1. UHNW investors have more money in collectibles than gold/precious metals.

(Are they just coming up with an excuse to buy what they want?)
@JasonMutiny 2. “What is a collectible?”

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

But it’s a pretty big and diverse space.
@JasonMutiny 3. And while prices did skyrocket in Q4 2020 for many of these assets, it turns out the long-term returns are actually pretty competitive with traditional assets.

(If you believe the numbers, at least.)
@JasonMutiny 4. Here’s a price graph of Lagavulin 21 plotted over time (scraped from auction site data).

It’s gone semi-exponential in price lately.

But you can also see March 2020 stick out like a sore thumb!
5. There are some interesting fractures in the scotch market that can lead to opportunity.

For investing, it might make sense to stick to the "blue chip" names.

But for those who plan to drink it, there are some other interesting wedges to exploit...
6. For a few of those ideas, check out BadaBing Whiskey.

badabingwhiskey.substack.com/p/welcome-to-b…
7. One of the big questions I have is, "how does the market change when you fractionalize ownership of collectibles?"

Not only are you introducing a new vector of demand, but the argument about deriving worth from physical ownership disappears.
And check out our whole channel if you haven’t seen it!

We’ve got episodes on NFTs, ARKK’s liquidity issues, reflation, solar climate effects, and social sentiment.

And if you have ideas or suggestions for topics, let us know!

youtube.com/channel/UCsfk9…

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More from @choffstein

1 Apr
These new Morningstar quantitative ratings are hot garbage.

I’m getting negative scores for managing 10 funds and having $0 invested in my own fund.

Neither of those are true.

The fact this was released tells me M* still doesn’t realize the influence it has on the industry.
And that’s despite the fact there are papers documenting that changes in Morningstar’s rating methodologies have literally changed the very structure of cross-sectional returns in the market.

That’s POWER.
“But Corey, your SAI says you don’t have any money in your fund!”

First, I am an owner/operator. Different situation. Second, maybe I have it in another vehicle.

But I don’t. I literally have it in the fund. It’s just that the SAI is updated ANNUALLY.
Read 11 tweets
13 Mar
In our latest video, @JasonMutiny and I explore the reflation trade.

- What is it?
- Where does the evidence stand?
- What trades might you consider in your portfolio?

Stuffed with graphs from JPM, GS, Nomura, and SocGen.
@JasonMutiny A few graphs and charts you’ll see:

Consumers have a lot of savings and are feeling pretty wealthy right now...
@JasonMutiny Real goods spending has recovered, but services not so much.

So is the consumer WILLING to spend, they’re just not being allowed to?
Read 10 tweets
5 Mar
1/ I received a DM this morning asking me about "recommended reading" in the space of trend following.

This all depends upon what you're looking for and your expertise, but I figured I'd share some thoughts publicly...
2/ Trend Following with Managed Futures (by @katykam)

- Approachable introduction for beginners
- Exploration of approach via data
- Explains dispersion in managed futures through strategy-specific betas

Technical Difficulty: ★☆☆☆☆

amazon.com/Trend-Followin…
3/ A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation (by @MebFaber)

- Very accessible exploration of a simple trend rule on different asset classes

Technical Difficulty: ★☆☆☆☆

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Read 11 tweets
26 Feb
1/

Interesting little anec-data…

Taking current ARKK holdings...

I went back to 1/29 data and found implied vols for 100%, 90%, and 80% moneyness on top 15 holdings.

I also found ARKK’s IVs for 100%, 90%, and 80% moneyness
2/

Normalizing the top 15 weights, you can use this data to back out an implied correlation.
3/

Here’s the weird part…

The implied correlation was basically flat (at around 62%).

In other words, the market was saying, “if this basket falls, we don’t think underlying correlations will go up."
Read 5 tweets
27 Dec 20
1/ As I watch the basket of retail favorite equities and BTC make new highs into the end of the year, I can only hang my head.

Because my performance was absolute rubbish this year.

What went right? What went wrong? Read on. 👇
2/ I should start by saying that my core mandates have historically sought to participate with equity market growth and preserve capital in equity market declines.

They embedded three key tilts:

1. Trend
2. Value
3. Size

(You can probably see where this is going...)
3/ Value and Size have largely been "unintended" byproducts of our portfolio design.

Specifically, we applied trend-following signals within an equally-weighted portfolio of equity sectors (e.g. Tech, Financials, Health Care, Staples etc).
Read 24 tweets
26 Dec 20
Watching WW84 and somehow turning a jet invisible makes it invisible to radar?

And then it's also magically the 4th of July just so they can fly through fireworks?

This movie is really, really bad.
WHERE DID THIS GOLD ARMOR MAGICALLY COME FROM?!
WHY DID IT JUST JUMP FROM THE 4TH OF JULY TO CHRISTMAS FOR NO REASON?!
Read 4 tweets

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