If you want to understand what’s caused the last week of violence you have to tell a longer story about a longer crisis of loyalism. Here’s my piece from Thursday’s Newsnight, produced by @mihretyohannes.
And here’s the thing, you can’t tell that story without Brexit. Those saying that NI has always been unstable as if it’s exculpatory miss the point. It was exactly the point that NI was always fragile and that’s why so many urged caution when choosing a Brexit settlement.
Loyalists have (rightly or wrongly) felt aggrieved for a long time, an element of the community feeling they’ve come off worse in the peace process. There’s also the lingering existential feeling of slowly losing majority power. All of this would have been known...
...when the sea border was agreed to. It’s doubtless one of the reasons it was unacceptable to Theresa May. Loyalists also feel that nationalism saw off the land border with the threat of violence and that was the focus of the Brexit negotiations. Now here we are.
But it’s not as if the alternative was any better. Once the decision was made that single market/customs union membership was unacceptable to the Tory Party and (to a lesser extent) May’s deal was unacceptable to Parliament, a border somewhere...
...and with it a destabilisation of the NI settlement was inevitable. And up to this point half the problem up to this point has just been to get politicians to accept that inescapable fact.
Lots of off comparisons to the 70s abounding this week. History never a v good guide but insofar as there are parallels in terms of community dynamics it’s a bit more like the 1980s and the Anglo Irish Agreement: a change in political structures, roundly rejected by loyalism.
Difference now is loyalist consent is essential to make the political structures of NI work. Worse the main vehicle of loyalism (DUP) is in a position where they must help implement the Protocol whilst having every incentive to denounce it. A recipe for instability.
And all of this ahead of elections next year.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Lewis Goodall

Lewis Goodall Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @lewis_goodall

12 Apr
Sad news in Westminster. Baroness Shirley Williams has died at the age of 90.
Reforming Labour Education Secretary and proponent of comprehensive schools, the 7th female cabinet minister in the country’s history, founder of the SDP, helped steer the party into the Liberal merger and foundation of the Lib Dems. An expansive political life.
The daughter Vera Brittain and at one time one of the most influential and popular politicians in the country. A fifty year political career.

Lib Dem leader @EdwardJDavey: “This is heartbreaking for me and for our whole Liberal Democrat family...”
Read 5 tweets
11 Apr
Former NI Sec @PeterHain tells @CarolineWyatt that Boris Johnson should visit NI as soon as possible: “He needs to visit Belfast along with the SoS and meet political leaders and loyalist representatives as well...[loyalism] needs to be listened to and it hasn’t been.”
“When you’ve had a prime minister and SoS who simply haven’t told the truth about the consequences of the particular form of Brexit they pursued- a de facto border check system across the Irish Sea, then inevitably the loyalism community feels it’s been lied to.” #bbcwtw
Hain was Labour NI Sec from 2005-07

He goes on

“This is playing out after years of casual indifference to NI. I would support any of my successors regardless of party...but the only good one since 2010, and he didn’t last long as BJ got rid of him, was @JulianSmithUK.”
Read 5 tweets
9 Apr
Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaking now: “Prince Philip earned the affection of generations here in the UK, across the Commonwealth and around the world. He was the longest serving consort in history and one of the last surviving people in this country to have served in WW2.” Image
“Like the expert carriage driver that he was, he helped steer the royal family and the monarchy so that it remained an institution indisputably vital to the balance and happiness of our national life.”
“It is to Her Majesty and her family that our nation’s thoughts must turn today.“
Read 14 tweets
8 Apr
Brandon Lewis presser: says he's "the first to acknowledge" the issues with the protocol from the start of the year but says that's "no excuse" for the violence we've seen.
Says he hasn't met with the Loyalist Council.
"We've got to see the Protocol work for the whole of Northern Ireland"- says it doesn't work if it doesn't work for any particular community.

Indeed and this is why many criticised the way it was devised by the UK government itself.
Read 5 tweets
8 Apr
I wonder if we might just end up seeing this tweet quite a bit in the months ahead.
I touched on this with a Tory candidate yesterday, I asked about the fundamental tension of the Conservative campaign- saying that this is about preventing another independence referendum at the same time as saying that an SNP majority isn't a good reason for one.
In response he emphasised the latter point. This tweet would suggest otherwise.
Read 4 tweets
7 Apr
Nicola Sturgeon making the NHS the issue of the day in the Holyrood elections. Says if SNP bas a “bold, progressive plan for government with the remobilisation of the NHS at its heart.”
Says the party will:

1) invest more in the NHS
2) “enable more people to get the right support closer to their home.
3) “building and maximising hospital capacity so more patients can be treated more quickly."
Reminder that this campaign isn’t only about independence. Indeed, there are Scots who heartily approve of the job NS does as FM, especially with regards to the pandemic but wish she’d talk about independence less. This is a nod to that. As is fact SNP feel they’re on strong...
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!