Thread by @CitizenCohn

Why are Michigan's COVID numbers so scary?

What is Gov. Whitmer doing and what is she *not* doing? And why?

Here’s an article on that -- and a thread (1)

huffpost.com/entry/michigan…

It’s not just the caseload numbers that are spiking. It’s also the hospitalizations.

Facilities are filling up, delaying elective procedures, etc.

Via @KristenShamus @HealthBridgeMI (2)

freep.com/story/news/loc…

freep.com/story/news/202…

You may have seen this desperate tweet from @umich surgery chairman @jdimick1 (3)

https://twitter.com/jdimick1/status/1380159770422874124

Head of Henry Ford Health System is on @Local4News -- says average inpatient age for COVID is 12 years younger than it was before.

Proves vaccines work, he notes. But also a reminder that younger people get seriously ill too. Says many will have lingering effects. (4)

Why the spiking numbers? There’s no single explanation, according to epidemiologists and other experts

Here’s @MartinEpi (who knows as much about Michigan's situation as anybody)

huffpost.com/entry/michigan… (5)

Other factors researchers have cited

(a) Michigan was one of first states to see B.117
(b) Success at preventing infection earlier may have left a larger vulnerable population now

Here’s @ashishkjha (one of the experts Whitmer consults)

huffpost.com/entry/michigan… (6)

Public health experts were pushing for Gov. Whitmer to act, issue orders to pause indoor dining.

@AbdulElSayed was one of them. He proposed tying restrictions to vaccination progress, which I thought was an interesting idea. (7)

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

Whitmer instead opted for a voluntary pause. She urged people to avoid indoor dining, etc., but declined to give orders.

Said it was more a compliance problem than a policy problem. (8)

huffpost.com/entry/michigan…

Whitmer won acclaim for tough COVID policies last year. But in January, Health Secretary Robert Gordon abruptly resigned.

Internal emails, which @CraigDMauger later obtained, showed he worried reopening too quickly would risk outbreaks. detroitnews.com/restricted/?re… (9)

Context for all of this is relentless pushback from Republicans, who even now, with the numbers spiking, want to dial back restrictions already in place.

Here's how GOP House Speaker responded to Whitmer announcement huffpost.com/entry/michigan… (10)

And compliance issues are real.

This report from Michigan's "thumb" is one of the best pieces I've read on the situation there, and the role public attitudes are playing in the current spike.

It's from @kzjuliemack @MLive (11)

mlive.com/public-interes…

That article -- and the situation here generally -- reminds me of something my former colleague @JeffYoung wrote last year:

"We may be finished with the coronavirus, but the virus isn’t finished with us." (12) huffpost.com/entry/the-coro…

But it's especially frustrating now, because we're *so* close to the end.

We're vaccinating people quickly now and the shots work. As @AbdulElSayed says, we just need to hold out a little bit longer. huffpost.com/entry/michigan… (13)

Similar sentiments from @MonaHannaA (14)

https://twitter.com/MonaHannaA/status/1380323234126651396

Earlier @LtGovGilchrist was on CNN. Here -- via @DNBethLeBlanc -- was his explanation of why Whitmer opted for a voluntary pause, rather than a mandatory one. (15)

https://twitter.com/DNBethLeBlanc/status/1381225976282120196

And on @FaceTheNation Whitmer repeated her call for more vaccine supply from the federal government, something the Biden administration has resisted. (16)

https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1381267156705349638

The Biden administration has agreed to send vaccinators and testing supplies, but not more vaccine, citing fairness and unpredictability of coming surges.

Also they've said Michigan already has surplus.

Yes, you are detecting some tension there. (17)