Thread by @AGaraad

For good or bad, Robert Oakley, the UNOSOM head in 1992, dragged the UN into the Somalia conflict. By din of the current political impasse, the UNSRSG of Somalia, Mr Swan, seem to be proposing similar dilemmas. Unless diverted, the result can be as the preceding history. 1/15

On 28 June 2020, the head of the Electoral Commission (NIEC), Halima Ibrahim, asked the parliament three (manual) or nine months (biometric) more months to proceed with the MPs elections expected at the end of 2020, which was a precursor of the presidential election. 2/15

At the time, an electoral law based on first-the-past-post participation among political parties and party's laws was in place. 3/15

Expectedly, maliciously small-minded ex-politicians & pseudo analysts (Siyaasi ama falanqeeye tiiro-gaaban) set narratives by copying Locke's notion of "Every-Man" agreeing on (wadar-oggol), that resulted in chiding the NIEC process & calling Dhuusamareeb conference aka Dh1. 4/15

Envisioning a coup d'éta against the Villa, the leading political parties and the premier abandoned their chance of becoming the centre for the electoral process after fifty years and thus unexpectedly approved the FMS's gratuitous call. 5/15

On 22 July 2020, the Villa Somalia guy survived the coup by sacking the PM. The FGS and FMS agreed on the electoral model that only lasted few days. On 18 August 2020, Jubbaland and the Puntland Federal States finally announced they opposed the agreement's finalisations. 6/15

After Dh2/3, FGS/FMS ended the deadlock on 17 Sep 2020. The September agreement was 15 articles stipulating where, when and how the election should go ahead. On 23 Nov 2020, the UNSRSG tells the UNSC that the stalemate has ended, and all sides agreed on election modalities. 7/15

The two FMS that used to fail to commit the agreement failed to do their part of the Sept 17th. In particular, they failed to send a regional electoral commission: part of the agreement each FMS to delegate. 8/15

The UNSRSG in Mogadishu, a USA citizen and seen as such in Mogadishu, imperil the USA policy adopted after the Black Howk Down stated by Charles Snyder that was neither to be driving the bus nor to be the back seat and perched on the driving cabin. 9/14

By confirming David Lake's quicksand of "The trade-off between the legitimacy [from citizens] & loyalty [intervenor]", the SRSG stimulated to give a lifeline to the unending conditions being put before the electoral process by PL/JL. Ostensibly aching to affect the outcome 10/15

Abdi Qaybdiid (now Senator in the upper house) was quoted as saying that "This is unacceptable; this means war….when told that UNOSOM planned to inspect a weapons cantonment site at General Aidid's radio station." 11/15

Demurring the SRSG, the FGS - through the diplomatic channel - invoked sovereign rights in 2(1,2,&7) of the UNSC Charter. Plus, tonight, the parliament owned the process by calling a motion to debate the elections, shifting the setting from Avisione Tent to the parliament. 12/14

Swan/Berlenga seem to trespass the "Nothing … United Nations to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state or shall require the Members to submit such matters to settlement under the present Charter" .....13/15...

.....specified in Article 1(7) of the UNSC Charter, which potentially pulls the UN and the so-called international community to the occurrence of a similar to the Black-Howk-Down episode. 14/15

@ababkal1 @JustAwHirsi @1PolicyWonk @NBerlangaEU @US2SOMALIA
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