1/ What you write for 50,000 fans isn't what you write for millions of readers.

A writer doesn't have a least common denominator limitation and can go deeper on a topic like MoviePass.

A writer can also write about a niche topic like MoviePass "churn." nytimes.com/2021/04/11/bus…
2/ That writers have the ability to work for themselves creates a wholesale transfer printing problem for the publication. The better BATNA of writers even benefits writers who stay at the New York Times at salary time. Writers will be paid more. That's a very good thing.
3/ "Substack" is bring used as shorthand by intermediaries who feel threatened by writers selling their work directly to customers. Many types of creators in different types of creative arts are eliminating intermediaries from their value chain. The shift to D2C is unstoppable.
4/ Wholesale *pricing* problem (not printing problem):

"the bargaining power of A that supplies unique services (eg, writing) to B (eg NYT) which enables A to capture value that formerly was captured by B by increasing the wholesale price of the unique service."

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @trengriffin

11 Apr
Telesat aims to launch its first batch of 298 satellites built by Thales in early 2023, with partial service in high latitudes later that same year, and full global service in 2023. It is estimated to cost half as much as the $10B SpaceX and Amazon Kuiper."reuters.com/article/busine…
"OneWeb plans to have 648 satellites at 1,200 km in orbit to provide a global service. The most recent launch on March 25 took it up to 146 satellites. The fifth launch will be in June, when OneWeb aims to provide broadband to the whole of the UK." businessinsider.in/tech/news/onew…
Craig Moffett: Using Starship for Starlink satellite launches may be important for SpaceX to meet the FCC's 2027 build requirements. The company could increase its rocket launch cadence to 200 Starlink satellites per month, up from the 120 per month." nasaspaceflight.com/2021/04/starsh…
Read 6 tweets
11 Apr
1/ "The value of a financial asset is the present value of future cash flows. If you don’t believe that, please put this aside and resume your normal daily activities." morganstanley.com/im/publication…

The two previous sentences written by Michael Mauboussin apply to this Twitter thread.
2/ "Intrinsic value is the number that if you were all knowing about the future and you could predict all the cash a business would give you between now and judgement day, discounted at the proper discount rate." Buffett

The predicting the future part is what makes this hard.
3/ "It is important to understand that intrinsic value is not an exact figure, but a range that is based on your assumptions."

Jean-Marie Eveillard

"Anytime anyone gives you some simplified formula for figuring it out, forget it."

Warren Buffett
Read 6 tweets
10 Apr
When a financial disaster strikes Value-at-Risk (VaR) is inevitably there like a deadly virus.

VaR “cuts off the part of the probability distribution (the extremes) that you most need to worry about.”

VaR is like "asking children to mark their own homework.” James Montier
When I've pointed out the insanity of VaR before some people say: "No one models Gaussian any more." Experience proves that some still do if they want to justify picking up dimes in front of steam rollers. As Munger says: "Show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome."
"Fat Tony, a Brooklyn street-smart character, builds his success on the paradox that the only prediction one can safely make is that those who base their business on prediction will eventually blow up. So Fat Tony takes the other side." fooledbyrandomness.com/ECONOMIST2013.…
Read 4 tweets
7 Apr
What business is this?

👀
Clue: net income = 25% of revenue, so they have that going for them, which is nice.
Read 4 tweets
4 Apr
Microsoft was formed 46 years ago today only in terms of the formality.

The magazine Gates and Allen saw in Harvard Square was the January 1975 edition.

BASIC for the Altair PC was sent to MITS in February of 1975

Altair BASIC was released three days from today in 1975. Image
2/ People get confused about Microsoft history since the unauthorized books on Microsoft are often fictional. Writers make up stories like "BASIC was sold to MITS."

PA: "When our 1975 royalty statement arrived, we were sorely disappointed. Our royalties totaled a mere $16,005."
3/ PA: "By Bill’s calculation, fewer than one in ten Altair buyers were purchasing BASIC. It was hard to fathom, because the machine was next to worthless without it. With the base Altair kit costing ~$400, MITS barely broke even on the machines." Profit was in the peripherals.
Read 4 tweets
3 Apr
1/ Charlie Munger: "I have a simple rule for success in fishing. Fish where the fish are. If the fishing is really lousy where you are you should probably look for another place to fish."

When I see people use modern data science tools, I think about this point made by Charlie.
2/ In business the tools to manage unit economics are vastly better today. Far less guessing is going on.

When I was younger is wasn't hard to catch salmon because they were plentiful. Fewer people had fish good finders. My current Garmin gear is split screen (low/high CHIRP).
3/ New tools make discovering product/market fit easier, but more people are using these same tools. One big difference between SaaS discovery and salmon fishing is you can capture customers more efficiently from legacy providers who don't use these tools or are slow to change.
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!