Thread by @historykenya101

The Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga marriage that didn't last beyond the honeymoon.

Often, you've always heard that Kibaki betrayed the MoU that was agreed by NAK and LDP

Let's look at the betrayal, the deals and the 2002/2003 political intrigues that happened behind closed doors.

In 2002, 13 Kenyan opposition parties joined under one umbrella and formed the NARC coalition. The coalition was kenya's second "party" that was truly a nationalistic party, after KANU, simply because it had massive membership from every part of the country.

But before then, in the weeks before the Uhuru park rally where they came together to form an alliance on October 14th 2002, the opposition leaders met during several sessions to ponder who among them, would be best suited to battle it out with Uhuru Kenyatta of KANU.

The rainbow alliance by then was only few day old but there was urgency of putting structures and leadership in order in preparation for the December polls. The alliance was not short of qualified candidates.

The NAK side which was composed of DP party, NPK and FORD kenya had the laid-back Kibaki, the erudite Wamalwa and strong willed Charity ngilu. LDP on their side had scholarly Saitoti, the diplomatic Kalonzo, the fatherly Moody Awori and the great mobiliser Raila Odinga.

Initially,the NAK group had settled on Kibaki as the presidential candidate.Politically,Kibaki was more experienced & at 71 years,he was oldest of them all.Wamalwa & Ngilu had agreed to let Kibaki be the candidate on condition that he would be a 1 term president.Laughable,right?

They trusted that at his age,Kibaki would not want to go through the vagaries of another election campaign 5 years down the line & he would be willing to leave the position to a younger person. (In case you thought Raila Odinga is the only person fooling his coalition principals)

This was confirmed by Musikari Kombo who said that Kibaki had promised to vacate the seat after 1 term."It was a clear MoU & a gentleman's agreement.I was personally there & privy to the MoU,it is just a pity that it was not written down".Kibaki denied entering into any such MoU.

Back to Kibaki & Raila.A few days prior to Uhuru park rally,Raila had desperately sought Kibaki & Wamalwa of the NAK to get them to agree on a joint agreement with the LDP but the 2 had been elusive.For unknown reasons,Kibaki had gone underground & Odinga could not reach him.

Fearing to lose key Kisii vote rich region,Raila Odinga went ahead & signed a MoU with Simeon Nyachae in the morning of Oct 14th,giving Nyachae of FORD-P,a chance to contest for presidency with Raila Odinga as the PM once the constitution was changed to provide for such position.

But minutes before the rally, Kibaki and his group showed up at Serena hotel and Raila Odinga immediately embraced them, completely sidestepping the MoU between him and Nyachae. (Now you know the origin of Raila and Nyachae bad blood for each other)

At the Uhuru park rally, the LDP leaders (Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Moody Awori and George Saitoti) had agreed that in absence of consensus, no announcement would be made on the presidential candidate and that further consultations would follow after the rally.

It was only agreed that Raila Odinga would launch his LDP party, which he had earlier acquired from a journalist called Dennis Kodhe at unpublished amount of money, and the rainbow alliance would be inaugurated later.

But once at Uhuru park,Kibaki endorsement appeared to be fait accompli when speaker after speaker stood up & praised his leadership qualities.Unbeknownst to others, Raila Odinga had already made up his mind that Kibaki would be the candidate.When Raila Odinga chance to speak ....

came,he asked the ecstatic crowd a rhetorical question in kiswahili as to why Kibaki was not fit enough."Isn't Kibaki fit enough to be president?"The crowd of over a hundred thousand went wild.The declaration known as "KIBAKI TOSHA" sent a deafening celebrations at Uhuru park.

& with Kibaki tosha,a political marriage was born.Other LDP leaders such as Saitoti & Kalonzo who tried to protest Raila Odinga declaration could not do anything.The jubilation that met it was sufficient to convince the most stubborn skeptic that the matter was a closed chapter.

And from the 14th of October 2002, the coalition would stick together (exemption of Simeon Nyachae who opted to walk out). They campaign together and even when Mwai Kibaki was involved in a road accident on December 3rd 2002....

....and with his would be vice president hospitalized in London at the same time, Raila Odinga and the NARC rainbow coalition group of experienced politicians steered the campaign trail to the end until they clinched the victory against Uhuru Kenyatta of KANU.

The coalition would later disintegrate,following the betrayal claims by the LDP side of the coalition led by Raila Odinga.The NARC coalition, which was largely formed by NAK group & LDP party...

...had a MoU in which they had agreed that the party summit would meet immediately after the 2002 general election to agree on the appointment of the new govt.LDP and NAK, had agreed that, the cabinet was going to have 22 officials and each side was to give 11 members each...

...in what they called a 50/50 power sharing deal. But Raila Odinga and his group were in for a rude shock.First, as Moody Awori, a member of LDP party by then would explain later, the telephone lines which they had used previously for weeks to communicate with the newly ....

...elected president Kibaki were disconnected. A move in which LDP blamed state house comptroller Matere Keriri, who also served as Mwai Kibaki chief of staff.

The feeling of LDP leaders led by Raila Odinga was one of anger, frustration and betrayal, but that was not all. When finally Mwai Kibaki announced his cabinet, out of the 25 ministerial positions, NAK group bagged 15 while Raila and his LDP got 8 positions only.

Worse betrayal followed when Kibaki left out some of the names that LDP had proposed for ministerial posts & picked fresh ones from his group. Eg,Raphael Tuju,a Raila Odinga foe & a wavering LDP MP,was appointed as minister despite the fact that Raila had not proposed his name.

After weeks of trying to reach out to Kibaki in vain, the betrayed group on January 5th, through the LDP chairman Joab Omino, called for a meeting of the newly elected party MPs. 26 of them attended the Nairobi club meeting to plan a reaction.

Later in the day,they issued a stinging statement in a press conference accusing Mwai Kibaki of dishonesty & blatant betrayal.Some members called for Street protests but that idea was shelved with Moody Awori requested to pursue a meeting with Kibaki by all means and get him ....

...to expand the cabinet to accommodate LDP officials who had been left out and assure them no more betrayal would come. That was unsuccessful.

When all this games were taking place, Raila Odinga was yet to meet with Kibaki in person. Raila only met Kibaki on the swearing day at the state house on January 6th. By that time, it was too late for any changes to be made in the executive.

Failure by Kibaki to honour the MoU was the 1st indication that the road,was going to be bumpy for the coalition that had been successfu to dislodge KANU & Moi's Uhuru Kenyatta from power.This betrayal also underscored the clout of Mount Kenya Mafia in the affairs of the new govt

When Raila Odinga met Kibaki on January 6th,LDP members had expected that during their 1st encounter at state house,Raila would pursue the party's hardline position on the MoU,but to their surprise,Raila was diplomatic & he expressed hope of better relations between the 2 sides.

Raila Odinga had read the public mood correctly. Kenyans made it clear that they were tired of unnecessary politicking and wanted the new govt to get straight into the business of repairing the torn country, caring less about who got what in the govt.

Which MoU's were betrayed? Going to the 2002 elections,there were 2 sets of MoU that were signed btwn NAK & LDP.But only 1 MoU,that was drawn on the morning of Oct 21st was made public.The other,signed during a private ceremony later that day,was kept locked up in a lawyer's safe

The MoU had stipulated that the summit would be convened immediately after the elections to discuss the appointment of the cabinet and distribution of the ministerial duties. And that membership of the cabinet, would be determined on a fifty/fifty power sharing formula.

It also stipulated that the NAK, would be allocated 1 position of the VP & 2 positions of the 2nd & 3rd deputy prime ministers. LDP would get the 2nd position of the vice president,the prime minister,the 1st deputy prime minister & 1 position of senior coordinating minister.

Those positions were to await a constitutional amendment or a new constitution to be enacted.But after winning the election,Kibaki trashed the docs. As a result,the alliance,hailed as the most promising in recent history,had virtually collapsed even before it had started to work.

On February 18, aided by walking sticks, Kibaki walked into the national assembly to open the first session of the 9th parliament.That was the 1st time since the accident,that Kenyans were seeing Kibaki walking on his feet.All eyes were on him,to see how he walked...

...how he reacted to MPs & how he sat on his grand chair next to the speaker.When he stood to address the parliament,he talked about corruption & other ills.All this time,a care free LDP MPs sat on the govt side of the assembly looking non-interested on what he was saying.

While NAK MPs stamped their feet in joy when Kibaki talked of his determination to complete the constitutional review process and to reverse "the current negative economic trend", LDP MPs, remained quiet in their seats, not sure whether to believe him or not.

The stage was now set for the drama that was to rock the dream govt in the next five years. As Kibaki continued with his address, tension was evident in the chamber. LDP had made it clear that in view of MoU violation, it would make life difficult for the govt in parliament.

What followed was now an emergence of a group of govt MPs who were defacto opposition MPs.The LDP by March of 2003 had joined KANU to oppose govt bills in the house.Uhuru Kenyatta's KANU MPs led by brilliant William Ruto had now found a new political bride in Raila Odinga & LDP.

The first major showdown between Raila Odinga LDP and Mwai Kibaki NAK, came in March 2003 when LDP and KANU galvanized support and passed a motion by nominated MP Aloo Aringo authorising the establishment of a budget office. The Kibaki govt and his NAK MPs had opposed the bill.

The KANU and LDP legislators knew that the motion which the govt opposed would not be implemented but they were now setting a stage for many more parliamentary upsets that were to significantly embarrass Kibaki and his govt.

In July of the same year, Kibaki would face the wrath of LDP when again they joined forces with KANU to oppose the "suppression of the terrorism" bill.The bill which they argued was directed at the Moslem community was later withdrawn by the govt.Again,Kibaki had lost to the LDP.

Such parliamentary drama would go on for years and in the beginning of 2005, it was now clear that the LDP wing was now in a political marriage with KANU and they would do anything in their power to stop Kibaki. During the 2005 referendum dubbed orange vs banana contest...

they defeated the govt draft.ODM would be born from this. But going forward to 2007 elections, KANU,after receiving strict order from Mzee Moi,joined Kibaki reelection against the ODM party which was now led by Raila Odinga,Musalia Mudavadi,William Ruto,Najib Balala & Joe Nyaga

Was Raila Odinga betrayed by Mwai Kibaki or Kibaki just protected Kenyans from a huge executive? Can we say Kibaki was not trustworthy and a gentleman to honour an agreement?