There was a slight short buildup on friday, but what's alarming in the COI build-up today till now .
Get ready for a wild ride....
There are some markets you trade aggressively and some markets you watch. This is a market to watch for next 2 hours for me. Will be interested to see if this COI is carried into closing
And those who are asking me up or down, I honestly don't know. I was playing this for a 31k target, once that has been met will have to reassess post closing. Intraday might take small trades only
And this is probably not a Corona issue, that was there in same scenario since last week. These are those longs which I explained were trapped who are bearing the pain.
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Ok, here goes the story.Morning received this message
Like an idiot, I fell into the trap. Clicking the link took me to an official looking webpage of twitter. Asked for mobile authentication ( i had 2FA on)
This is handle which did this, looked like exact Twitter Support handle. ( now changed after I reported this to twitter ). Had a blue tick , verified mark
The BNF OI puzzle, what I think happened. This is post mortem analysis 😀
COi was going up like crazy since early March, positions were being created in far month ( go thru my previous tweets)
OI = net shorts = net longs. So informed traders were taking a huge position expecting a parabolic move ( we did not know whether up or down). As of now, my guess is that the whole position was a long position. Someone had the info of the rate cut
You can see that the positions were cut hugely on 1st April. What happened on 1st April ?
In technical analysis, majority of the patterns were first observed visually and then the rules made. Observing this interesting phenomenon on BNF over the past one month.
Any strong up day on BNF is immediately followed by a gap down open from the previous closing
So any upmove /upday is almost never having any follow-up buying the next day. Unless this pattern gets broken by 1-3 days of upmove after a strong closing, BNF looks extremely bearish. The logic of BNF seems to be " will kick your ass if you take bullish positions overnight" 😀
Jokes apart, if you want to understand the logical basis of patterns, this book is still the best :
Technical analysis of stock trends by Edwards and Magee