By 2010/11, Boko Haram's murderous ways shocked the world.

But instead of working to solve this problem, some people told themselves, "let us sell a narrative of marginalization & neglect to gullible Americans & their government, & thus facilitate our return to power".
So a particular narrative of Boko Haram, "marginalization", with hacks like John Campbell implying it was a "peasant revolt in an Islamic context against a Christian dominated government at Abuja" was sold;

The Obama Administration fell for it; hook, line and sinker.
In 2015, power changed hands - and many gullible people, both within and outside Nigeria were convinced this heralded "the birth of a new Nigeria".

We understood Nigeria & knew that 2015 was just another ethnic power squabble with wide ranging implications for Nigeria's unity.
This is 2021 - and Nigeria is engulfed in several crises, not just Boko Haram.

Local & international actors who "expressed alarm at Nigeria's trajectory" prior to May 29, 2015 - now pretend to "unlook".

Many gullible people were scammed & ordinary Nigerians are worse off.

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More from @cchukudebelu

13 Apr
It is easy to figure out where Russia and China stand. They do not support democracy.

But with the West, it is not straight forward. On the one hand, they are opposed Myanmar's Military Junta - but on the other, they give Chad's Idris Deby & Egypt's Al Sisi their full support.
So, with the West, 75 - 80% of the time when they express "their support for democracy", they don't actually mean what they say.

The trick is in identifying the 20 - 25% of the time when they actually mean what they are saying about "democracy" and "human rights".
Now, Nigeria is surrounded by Western supported dictators (Chad, Togo, Cameroon). So, it is reasonable to assume that they have very little support for "democracy" or "human rights" in the West African region.

Let's focus on what they do, not what they say.
Read 6 tweets
13 Apr
If a clear and present danger like Boko Haram couldn't unite Nigerians. Then nothing can.

Let's not pretend that we didn't live through 2010 till present. Let's not pretend that we didn't observe how Boko Haram was used as a stepping stone to advance political careers.
Let's stop pretending that we didn't observe the "scorched earth" tactics of several prominent politicians;

I.e. "burn everything to the ground so I can emerge the last man standing".
Instead of a "national vision", they advanced a regional vision.

Certain politicians got the EU, USAID, DFID and every Western aid agency on earth to focus exclusively on two regions in the North - nothing genuine, but to "position their regions ahead of other regions".
Read 5 tweets
12 Apr
Before deciding to enter a new market, serious firms do a PESTEL analysis. Twitter must have done that too.

Political: how politically stable is Nigeria compared to Ghana?
Economic: Would you want to invest in Nigeria, with its crazy monetary policies, high inflation etc.
Socio-Cultural: Is a hypocritically conservative society like Nigeria with serious ethno-religious strife, the best location for a social media network?
Technological: Nigeria probably beats Ghana here, but other factors count against Nigeria.
Environmental: Not relevant here.
Legal/Regulatory: This is where Ghana beats Nigeria hands down. Regulations impacting on technology/fintech in Nigeria are often arbitrary, and counter-productive. No sensible person would want to invest in technology here - not after the experience of Gokada etc.
Read 4 tweets
12 Apr
The people who won the nasty ethno-religious power struggle of 2015 couldn't give a toss whether you've "lost all passion for Nigeria".

As far as they are concerned, you were "useful idiots" who facilitated their rise to power.

And they have no further use for you.
If you like, emigrate. They don't care.

If you like, complain as they systematically destroy your fintech business. They don't care.

Their major Achilles Heel is that they are economically illiterate - so their only interest in you is whatever diaspora dollars you can bring in.
As for your oyibo friends, those ones stopped caring a long time ago. For the academics among them, their only interest in you is linked to funding for research grants.

Nobody close to power in either US or UK still cares about #EndSARS, they forgot about that a long time ago.
Read 4 tweets
9 Apr
China has almost completed a railway line to Laos. Some claim it is a bad deal for Laos, but Laos has only two options - connectivity with the second largest economy on Earth, or isolation.

I think it is best for them to choose the former.
The completion of the railway connecting China to Laos, means that one day, Kunming in Southern China could be a hub connecting the rest of China with Thailand, and other South East Asian nations, by rail.

Someone in Beijing is thinking ahead.
I'm struck by the difference in how China approaches South East Asia, and how US approaches Central America.

As far as Washington is concerned, Mexico is where its interests end. Central America is an irritation, or at best, a distraction.
Read 4 tweets
9 Apr
By 1982, it was clear that for Nigeria to be sustainable in the long-term, it had to reform/restructure away from the petro-state model.

Almost 40 years later, there has been basically no movement in the direction of the required reforms.

The same people are still in charge.
All the heartache, problems and the violence we experience today was preventable; but our leaders were/are mentally lazy - incapable and unwilling to make the necessary changes.

From where I sit, it is easily to plot Nigeria's trajectory. I can predict what our leaders will do.
Some of you thought that the Covid-19 Pandemic would be a "wake-up call".

I am sorry.

The political elite have all received their vaccination shots.

They are now free to seek medical attention outside Nigeria.

They will not reform our healthcare system.
Read 4 tweets

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