Thread by @sharmasupriya

We are in the middle of a ferocious second wave of Covid in India.

It seems pointless to do postmortems. 

But one thing that has bothered me enormously over the last three months is the lack of attention to the new coronavirus variants.

#Thread

Around New Year, there was fleeting attention in India to the new variant rampaging through UK. 

Qs were asked about whether government was doing anything to prevent UK variant from entering India. 

No one seemed to dwell on the thought that new *Indian* variants could crop up.

Reporters first began to hear chatter about new variants in Maharashtra in February.

The first report in national media came from @tabassum_b  on Feb 18. 

It was clear and alarmingly.

indianexpress.com/article/cities…

The report said two mutations had been detected in samples from Maharashtra

"Doctors say the presence of E484K could explain why entire families are testing positive in Amravati that has recorded 2,843 new Covid-19 cases in last one week and a positivity rate of 56.7 per cent."

"In Yavatmal, the N440K mutation has been found in one of the four samples the district sent for genome sequencing. The district has 11.4 per cent positivity rate and 507 new cases in last one week."

Worse, one of the mutations was "associated with evading antibody response", the report pointed out.

Which means even if you have antibodies from a previous infection or a vaccine, the mutation could get past it.

The health authorities in Maharashtra did the classic thing: they issued a denial.

But the next day Dr Randeep Guleria of AIIMS said the new strain found in Amravati was “highly transmissible and dangerous”.

Officially, the health ministry downplayed the threat posed by new variants.

The ICMR DG said the new variants cannot be linked to the surge in cases of the virus.

scroll.in/article/987726…

The health ministry continued to reiterate this: there was no evidence to link the new variants to the surge.

What it didn't say – as @Banjotkaur reported –  India had sequenced less than 1% of total Covid-19 samples in nearly 3 months. 

downtoearth.org.in/news/health/di…

Without genome sequencing, evidence cannot be generated.

And governments can continue to conveniently say there is no evidence to link the new variants to the surge!

On March 24, the health ministry finally acknowledged a new “double mutant variant” and “variants of concern” had been detected in 18 states.

scroll.in/latest/990439/…

But instead of underlining the significance of this finding in language that common people can understand, it obfuscated:

“Genomic sequencing and epidemiological studies are continuing to further analyse the situation."

Three weeks later, it still hasn't told us what those studies have found.

But the consensus among experts is that the new variants are playing a big role in the second wave.

"Though the central government has said data on the variants circulating in India are not sufficient to link them to the rapid increase in the number of cases in the country, we think it is the most likely explanation."

~Prafulla Shriyan, Giridhara Babu
scroll.in/article/991515…

"That the circulation of the new, potentially more infectious variants is responsible for the spike in cases after January 2021 seems increasingly inescapable."
 
~ @MenonBioPhysics

science.thewire.in/health/sars-co…

"Apart from infecting susceptible people, the high number of cases in metros compared to the first wave is indicative of a more contagious variant of the virus at play."

~ @epigiri

thehindu.com/sci-tech/scien…

Lots and lots of questions, summed up by @MenonBioPhysics

science.thewire.in/health/sars-co…

But a basic question that's bothering me – if we as a country had reacted with enough alarm to early signs of new Indian variants, if the govt had stepped up genome sequencing, if we had more data, if the data was shared with the public, could the second wave have been blunted?

This is not a rhetorical question.

I'm genuinely curious about what a more heightened response to new Indian variants could have achieved.

If you have thoughts, please do share.

We're working on this story.

Meanwhile, do read this story by @PriyankaPulla on how the government made it harder for labs to do genome sequencing.

“It’s like asking us to run a 100-metre dash with our hands tied. I can run, but I will run very slow.”

science.thewire.in/health/insacog…

The story is here:

India played down new mutant Covid strains to avoid panic – but this may have backfired

scroll.in/article/992172…