A #MysteryBroker update arrived overnight. Most is a skeptical take on crypto.

But on stocks, he says the rally's reached the upper limit of his recent forecast, he sees excess bullishness as a problem. Isn't calling for an immediate correction yet, but "getting very close."
On crypto, #MysteryBroker is a non-believer, says Bitcoin is the one speculative part of the market that hasn't corrected dramatically (as solar, cannabis, pre-profit hypergrowth tech have).

Says the $COIN public listing will "likely mark the top" for cryptocurrencies.
The #MysteryBroker cites lack of intrinsic value in crypto (he also won't own gold, art, collectibles either).

Even if crypto displaces gold as investment asset, sees potential market much lower than total value of gold (~$10T) because half of gold demand is jewelry/industrial.
That's it. But now more than ever, note how this all works...

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More from @michaelsantoli

13 Apr
The discussion around Coinbase's public listing, and the reaction to its financials, remind be a bit of when LaBranche filed for its IPO in 1999, before becoming the first NYSE specialist firm ever to go public.

(Not a perfect analogy, but hear me out...)
Stock prices and volumes were, of course, surging in 1999 on swelling public excitement for the asset class.

Everyone knew NYSE specialists and market makers made good money. But LaBranche's results were better than most assumed, and more stable.
LaBranche was putting up 45% returns on equity. Once it came public, the CEO would go to investment conferences and talk about how the firm never had a down week trading. Investment conferences attended by the fund managers that sent all those orders to the floor.
Read 7 tweets
11 Apr
The bull market approaches an “all-in” phase. Why not, with the S&P compounding at a 44% annual pace in 2021? Bulls can no longer argue the market’s hated, the public under-invested. But tape action is sturdy, valuation stable. Weekend CNBCPro⁩ column. cnbc.com/2021/04/10/ris…
Brisk stock-fund inflows, collapse in shorting/hedging, rising equity exposures across the board...
Possibly building to a short-term overshoot again, though recent shake outs (one each in late Jan, Feb, March) have been localIzed, easily absorbed the market rotating pretty quickly away from peril...
Read 5 tweets
8 Mar
Got a quick #MysteryBroker update.

But first, a reminder of what he was saying coming into 2021 about frothy hyper-growth tech and the cyclical/value rotation...
The #MysteryBroker says, "The speculative tech bubble of 2020-21 has officially burst. The recent crash in speculative tech stocks is not a garden variety correction." Yes, there will be good bounces but for blasted growth tech he sees no real bottom until at least early Fall.
The #MysteryBroker has preferred small-caps and value since last summer, and still does. "This trade is not over and may last a few years," he says.
Read 6 tweets
6 Mar
The market's now a fight between stocks valued on promises for a transformed future with a high story-to-substance ratio and those set to thrive in a spring-loaded economic boom riding uncorked restlessness. How might it go from here? New @CNBCPro column.

cnbc.com/2021/03/06/liv…
A couple of swatches from the column, discussing the flush in expensive high-concept tech and how the “revenge of the disrupted” stocks might be about a bit more than a mere rotation toward cyclical exposure and neglected value indexes. ImageImage
And boiling things down to a broad-market take, a completed 5% pullback is hard to distinguish from the first leg of something worse. But for now no stress fractures have yet surfaced in credit or the volatility markets. Image
Read 4 tweets
27 Feb
After a nasty gale tore through the bond market, sending yields flying and upending portfolios, time to look for valuable windfall?
The upshot for equity valuation, the fate of FANG, prospects for dividend-growth and buyback stocks.

New @CNBCPro column.

cnb.cx/2O5OyWi
Not a key impact, but the boost in yields creates a slightly awkward rhetorical challenge to Wall Streeters who lean heavily on relative stock/bond valuation stories to make a bullish equity case. The “Sure, P/Es are rich but the earnings yield’s well above the 10-yr Treasury...”
In reality, there was never anything essential or eternal about the “equity risk premium” or “Fed model” - certainly not as a predictive tool. Absolute valuation has been the key driver of long-term returns (with no forecasting power in the near term).
Read 6 tweets
22 Feb
The #MysteryBroker reiterates: We’re in “the last phase of the first year of a bull market.” He points to past new bull markets where the first phase lasted a year, plus or minus a month or so. This one, by his lights, started March 23 of last year...
The #MysteryBroker says by the end of April, he expects stocks will enter a period of 3-5 months of “digestion and correction” with likely downside of roughly 15% in the S&P 500...
Coinciding with this shift to a new phase, #MysteryBroker says high-beta and speculative stocks should lose a bit more and value outperformance should solidify...
Read 6 tweets

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