Numis taking a moderate view, which although ridiculous around £5.70 for a company like this - they are starved of info on the next product and revenue streams, so can't fault them too strongly until sustained revenues are made official.
ODDO though.
Almost a parody of a dodgy brokerage, complete opportunists. They will have a clue a news flow period is coming up soon. Mullis has made that much clear - new tech and contracts in process for covid, and a longer sustained business plan.
This gap in between in where the uncertainty lay, understandably.
And look at how severely the share price has moved with that gap. None of this is rational, and thats okay. Markets aren't known for being rational - Novacyt is an obvious winner in the making.
And it's been held back until certainties on revenues are announced.
But for certain parties like ODDO to take advantage speaks to their credibility, not Novacyt's.
And the fact that an EU brokerage can have such an influence on an AIM listed stock, with no ability by UK private investors to scrutinise their 'research' is one way how the markets are moved and manipulated.
It's done through a veneer of respectability.
Novacyt is a majority owned private investor stock, overwhelmingly so.
Yet we have no access to the information used to move the share price.
Think about that some time, and how artful it's set up.
Anyway, just another rant. We've probably had a lot of those today.
Hope @NovacytGroup did what they always do, got stuck in and kept developing new tech. We know they're doing it, and we know Dyer (from photo earlier), the new Corporate Development Officer goes to work daily
.... to seek out target asset acquisitions and build the company into a mid cap leader.
Not a player. Novacyt never said player.
Novacyt has leadership in the markets on their sights.
All this noise in between is a footnote, and the sharks are taking advantage in the interim.
Either way.
We lost some really great guys lately. I appreciate people while they're in and what I've learned from them while they're in and sharing. Always appreciate each other, because we're not the enemy, and if you do need to throw shade - go ahead with ODDO 😉
For now, if you're in buckle up and seek clarity.
Is this a dying business or a growing one. Are they speculative and never going to make revenues, or are they going to R&D a stream of new tech and grow revenues YoY.
How do you see Novacyt?
Because if it's the latter and Novacyt announces a sustainable and growing revenue stream the rest will be history - II's will buy in and all of this drama and cash valuation guff gets left in the dust.
We just need to have a little vision. We're close.
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So why haven't they been doing billions in revenue like their peers, and why are we expecting them to go mid cap like other diagnostics companies, now.
What's changed and why have investors been backing sustainable mid cap revenues?
When Novacyt acquired PrimerDesign in 2016, it was for their portfolio of tests and the talent within that team.
However those tests were research use only (RUO), and PrimerDesign themselves were not structured as a business that could sell into the clinical use market.
You have seen how much PCR tests cost. But you have also seen the accuracy needed and competition in that market. That competition exists for good reason - it's worth billions and has a 17.5% CAGR from 2020 to 2027.
Novacyt is always extremely conservative with market communications, though they're at two different stages. Novacyt is making mid cap money, but talking like an uncertain micro cap in RNS. Hence the chaos.
If you look at non-market facing communications from @NovacytGroup at the moment. They're extremely bullish and confident about who they are and what they're doing.
Led the way on swine flu, covid and the horse meat scandal. Strong USPs.
Sales director role with heady focus on NHS sales. Many roles are NHS facing. So many people are confused over the procurement dispute. That's just one contract, and just one part within that contract. Not a breakdown in a relationship.
Some great discussion and writing going around today. Hate to repeat a tweet but Friday really has made investors and potential investors take a step back and put #NCYT under the microscope.
Because it mirrors my feelings strongly about M&A right now. Some food for thought.
Duncan: "The more I think about it the more I don’t want NCYT to make a small bolt on acquisition at a very high premiums.
Interestingly the value we present to a future buyer based on our cash + incoming revenue + IP & operations is genuinely interesting. Remember CFOs are the ones that approve acquisitions.
That all the main players have an advertising budget. I notice it because of the website. But Roche, Thermo, Qiagen etc are always there in my face. Constant ad spend, even on low volume blogs..
Now confirmed by RNS so we will have a complete revenue stream for COVID-19 that only large caps like Roche have managed to output.
We actually will have a wider range than some large caps ie. Thermo & Perkin Elmer.
Very impressive.
We've done £30 to £40mill in Q1 2021 from private testing sales and have yet to launch several new products, including LFTs which are currently en-vogue.
Novacyt's team is expanding and pushing into new territories so 2021 revenues without DHSC are still mid cap level.
As always with a Novacyt infodump it takes weeks for the gravity of it to settle. All this tech will be realised in 2021+ in terms of revenues and growth. But it's all in there.
Initial thoughts?
LFT modification to 'extend the revenue horizon for COVID-19'.
Many antibody LFTs on market simply haven't been selling. Uptake isn't there, especially in the UK. The requirements for these have changed, and the major rollout won't be until we have greater vax numbers.