Thread by @TaylorQuant

Not a huge horse racing fan, but Rachel's amazing.

Her jersey, not so much.

Makes you realise though...

#NCYT #ALNOV #NVYTF

That all the main players have an advertising budget. I notice it because of the website. But Roche, Thermo, Qiagen etc are always there in my face. Constant ad spend, even on low volume blogs..

Smaller players, SourceBio etc.. all advertising.

Abbott even promote their brand through the Coca Cola effect. Try to get their name in front of you everywhere, even at home with the health supplements. Become ubiquitous.

All these diagnostics companies have been growing for years, and have excess budget for PR.

@NovacytGroup is only just beginning this journey. Which is plainly obvious, yet much talk post Friday's profit warning has been fatalistic.

They will in the next month or two complete their range of Covid-19 products. A range even some of the large caps haven't matched test for test. It will be one of the most comprehensive ranges of Covid-19 tests from a single company on the market.

Covid CE IVD
Covid-HT
Exsig Direct™
Exsig Mag™
Covid 2 Gene
WinterPlex™
Antibody IgG ELISA
PROmate™
SNPsig
VARIplex™
Antibody LFT
Friday RNS Secret Project LFT

Yes. 12 Covid-19 products with 4 new ones which will +begin+ to sell in Q2.

PROmate™ is unique - that's going to become part of their long term USP. If you don't understand why it's a big deal, then check it out. But it's stand out tech that marks PrimerDesign as seriously smart market-leading cookies.

But the SNPsig, VARIplex, Antibody and Secret Project LFT will begin to sell soon and it's these products that will maintain revenues while Novacyt develops their long term strategy.

They banked around £35 mill at 80% margin in Q1 from mostly private sector PROmate™ sales alone, which has just launched.

That's seriously strong going. And soon we get 4 new tests for variants and rapid testing.

Maybe they even get some LFT approved for home use.

What do we expect Mullis to say?

"We're going to smash 100 million profit in '21 with these new products we're putting out"

No. He can't say that. He's a CEO who can't give guidance on sales on tech that is only just releasing.

He just plainly can't do that through an RNS.

What they will have is market intelligence done pre-R&D, and that intel is what helps them decide what the market need is and if they should enter, and what the expected share they might get is.

And that's why they've went ahead with the variant and LFT ranges.

They know this tech gives them an ROI worth investing in.

Until this tech is out and selling, we need to read between the lines - but it's not opaque. There is absolutely nothing profound about saying variant detection and rapid LFT tests are going to make Novacyt bank in 2021+

Sure we had a profit warning, and that was warranted. The context and trading conditions here are unprecedented.

Mullis gave similar warnings about visibility in February 2020.

Look how much they made based almost entirely on a single test after that 'warning'.

Now they've got a full range of Covid-19 tests. And a direct sales team for different regions to sell them.

None of this is profound. It's obvious that they're going into 2021 in a position of strength.

Loads of cash, no debt and loads of new tech.

Okay so that's not even interesting. Even a casual observer can see Novacyt is going to have a good year, simply based on the new product lines for covid-19 which are not only designed to meet market needs, but prolong their revenues in that one viral range.

What gets interesting is that within two months Novacyt finishes R&D (we think) on Covid-19 tests.

And they'll be entering an R&D exclusive stage on non-covid products. Some of this work is already likely underway as the LFTs look near CE stage.

What these new tests and devices are we don't know.

And that's what makes Novacyt exciting again. They can go any direction they wish soon. Sure they have the excellent decentralised Q-series that can multiplex and are now 'direct-to-PCR' with PROmate™.

And VersaLab of course will expand post-covid into health screening.

But Novacyt has the cash to specialise in a new niche.

Hands up. No clue what that niche will be. They'll go to where they can profit and grow as fast as possible obviously. They're great at market intel.

Maybe they'll M&A their way into the niche. Maybe they're R&D'ing their way into it.

Either way, there is a team at Novacyt who are spending every single working day to both grow existing revenues...

And to find their path to sustainable revenues.

And they have no cash bottleneck either.

Once they get on top of the latter and inform the market, the Novacyt we invested in during the pandemic will no longer be the same company.

They'll have moved on from covid testing stock to growing diagnostics company.

Hopefully they'll move to main market at the same time that happens.

Because a diagnostics company that makes £100mil profit annually and growing YoY with main market volume is exactly what every single investor here wants.

And really. They're not actually that far off from any of this. This isn't pie in the sky stuff.

We're literally a month or two away from closing the Covid-19 R&D chapter and moving on.

And that's when the revenue generating diagnostics narrative can begin for us.

Just give them a little more time.

And when you're doubtful remember that Mullis and the whole team @NovacytGroup are literally working daily to meet the same goal you want..

To grow into that mid cap diagnostics leader. Every single day - they wake up to do exactly that.