It's amazing how people see this as some big own.

Like, if your system collapses to the extent that over 6 million people flee because a country that you *checks notes* believe has a wicked and destructive economic system *checks notes* declines to do business with you....
idk seems like a self-own?

Not so much if the systematic critique is non-economic. But for putatively Marxist states to say, "Well everything would be FINE if the capitalist world would just PROVIDE US MARKET ACCESS" is a massive self-own.
It's one thing if the critique is non-economic. But when the distinction is *about economic systems*, arguing that your economic system would work better if the other economic system would just give you more help is missing the point.
If your economic system is not resilient to losing access to countries with different economic systems, your economic system may not actually be *all that great*.

*gives side-eye to continuing US corporate collaboration with the CCP*
the problem is not too many sanctions

the problem is that we should as a matter of default have sanctions against all countries and governments until they become sufficiently liberal and democratic

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More from @lymanstoneky

12 Apr
Lots of cool #NBERday papers today!

We'll focus on two papers tackling a big question:

Q: Does the US have a politically neutral civil service?

A: No.
#NBERday
nber.org/papers/w28673 nber.org/papers/w28665
The first paper digitized personnel records of staff at U.S. Customs offices before and after the 1885 Pendleton Act. The Pendleton Act reformed the US Civil Service system to reduce its use for political patronage. It imposed a civil service exam for some posts. #NBERday
In the conventional story of US civil service history, the Pendleton Act is lionized. There had been decades of ever-worsening corruption in the US civil service, and finally Rutherford B Hayes made a determined effort to tackle the issue. #NBERday
Read 68 tweets
10 Apr
The biggest and weirdest historical "what if" is quite simply a world where Sigismund the Old rather than just secularizing the Teutonic Order into Ducal Prussia, incorporated it wholly into the Commonwealth, giving its lords parliamentary seats.
The endgame here is that Poland has Prussia's resources to pull from in the future, Protestantism diffuses further eastward, and Prussia's history becomes more closely linked with the east than with Germany.
It's likely in this scenario that Prussia simply never becomes the Prussia we know from history. Maybe the Commonwealth still collapses; but the point is the duchy of Prussia would actually have been annexed into the *Kingdom of Poland*, not just the Commonwealth.
Read 11 tweets
8 Apr
Look, everybody agrees on franchise restrictions. Almost nobody is arguing for children and non citizens to vote, and everybody would prefer if those they think are wrong didn’t vote. Stop pretending you do a little happy dance when tons of the other party turn out.
Now, we should engage in self reflection and not yield our better impulses to that tribalism. That’s an argument. But I see tons of people making clearly dishonest arguments where they are plainly just lying about their mental and emotional states.
Nobody is arguing for a return to 20% participation and nobody is arguing for 80% participation. Nobody believes greater/less participation is necessarily welfare or efficiency enhancing. We are all arguing about a very flat section near the middle of a curve.
Read 27 tweets
7 Apr
So I'm going through results of a survey I ran last month and I've got a neat result that speaks to WHY birth rates undershoot preferences in ~all rich countries.

Expected hedonic costs of mismatch are asymmetrical! Image
Basically, I asked women their personal fertility desires (using the DHS standard question wording).

*But then* later on I also asked women to rate (by clicking stars, up to 7 stars, so a 0-7 scale) how happy they'd be if they had 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6+ kids.
So this tells us 1) what's the number women say they'd really like to have and 2) how happy do they think they'd be with that vs. other numbers.
Read 15 tweets
17 Mar
Recently the question of what role biological changes may have in declining fertility has come up, not least because of the recent book "Count Down" which makes this argument very forcefully.
I generally avoid the biological fertility question because, well, I'm not a biologist!

And I have not read Count Down yet, though it's on my to-do list.
But a version of the argument appeared this week in Scientific American, and so I went and looked at the studies involved. The argument is here: scientificamerican.com/article/reprod…
Read 62 tweets

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