All graphics are 7-day averages. Today’s raw reporting for each metric is in the tweet below.
(Data retrieved directly from state dashboards. Not every state updates its numbers daily.)
UNITED STATES
Today’s raw reported metrics:
- Tests: 1,310,181 (-120,202)
- Cases: 62,454 (-6,110)
- Deaths: 397 (+17)
- Currently Hospitalized: 40,098 (+905)
- Currently in ICU: 7,698 (+140)
(+/- compared to same day last week for Tests/Cases/Deaths & yesterday for Hosp/ICU)
I am still laughing my ass off at the Deadliest Catch + NASCAR + CMT thing. Her sincerity is what got me the most. I thought it was kind of endearing—had to check the notes for a bit to be like, “Are these the right names for these things?”
I expected to see a large drop in cases today as compared to last Monday. It’s essentially the opposite of yesterday’s increase. Because several states doubled up last Monday, it was nearly certain we’d drop by thousands over last week.
Very small increase in reported deaths compared to last Monday (which was reporting Easter’s numbers), so I’m still happy with our number today. We’ll be coming down off our 7-day-averaged artificial high for the next couple days (and should clear fully by Friday).
Glimmer of hope in MI? We’re 3 days beyond 7-day-averaged peaks for cases & % positive. Hospitalizations jumped 343 coming off the non-reporting weekend today, but that number was 753 the first day following last weekend (though it was a 3-day weekend then).
Vaccine update—another record today! Also, I just noticed that @CohoKelly is a single follower shy of 4K. His data presentation is simple and clean. You should give him a follow.
A few days ago, I stumbled upon an exchange between @michaelsfuhrer, @greg_travis, @karencutter4, @PienaarJm.
The crux is Greg’s claim of a sharp increase from 2022 to 2023 in 18-44yo deaths from disease in the US (his graphic below).
Greg is wrong.
Join me on a 12-pack 🧵
2/ It quickly became apparent that the main point of contention was whether including R99-coded deaths (“Other ill-defined and unspecified causes of mortality”) in Greg's definition of deaths from disease, as they are later re-coded to non-disease deaths.
3/ Oh, but not to worry. Greg states that "R99 itself is a tiny portion of overall deaths and generally resolves to <2,000 deaths a month overall (out of 300K deaths a month)."
Weekly #Covid19 update in my Substack newsletter, The Issue. Just click the link below.
I'll excerpt a few portions below, but the upshot is: steady rise in cases/% positive, lower rise in Hosps, even lower for ICUs, and continued decline in deaths. thelawyercraig.substack.com/p/covid-19-wee…
"Despite the rise in other metrics, deaths late last week dropped below 300 (7-day-average) for the first time since June/July 2021. ICU census is still well below pre-Omicron pandemic lows."
"Perhaps the best news right now is global Covid deaths. According to Our World in Data, global daily confirmed Covid-19 deaths (7DA) have dropped to 1,772. For comparison, . . . our lowest ever number globally was 4,436 before Omicron entered the picture."
I cannot overstate the absolute idiocy of touting this study purporting to show Omicron is just as likely to send someone to the hospital or the morgue as Delta.
There are 2 enormous issues with this study (among others, I'm sure).
2/ ISSUE #1: The authors use PCR positives as the case denominator and just assume that the "case-to-infection" ratio was similar between all 4 periods. Unbelievable.
The fact that a study can look at the data and just say this boggles my mind. Just read that green highlighting!
3/ Here were Massachusetts' peak positive testing percentages for the 4 different periods in the study (data = @CDCgov)
8.69% - Winter 20-21
2.62% - Spring 21 (sub-1% for 38 days!)
4.47% - "Delta" (per the study)
23.36% - "Omicron"
#Covid19 in South Africa...5th wave? Well, that depends on what metric you use to define wave.
Thread 🧵🧵🧵
2/ If you look at 7DA cases, it's a clear increase. It's a long way off from the OG Omicron peak (and not quite as vertical), but they're still up ~4x in barely over 2 weeks.
3/ But everywhere is testing a bit less these days, so what about % positive? Yep, even more vertical, and more closely resembles the prior waves.
Of course, these are all just tests/infections. Let's look at outcomes...
Down 91.5% from peak. Seeing a rise nationally from recent low of 2.13%. During the entire pandemic, was only lower in June 2021 than our recent numbers.