One thing we’ve learnt about #COVID stories:
Often something that looks too scary to be true isn’t quite true when you look at the small print.
Often something that looks too good to be true isn’t quite true when you look at the small print.
There have been a few scary stories in recent weeks about “hotspots” of #COVID19 around the UK.
Partly inspired by maps like this (this one from @PHE_uk) which compare local case levels with the national avg. The reddest area here is Barnsley
One problem with heatmaps is that while they do a good job of depicting regional variation, they don’t give you much context.
And they can look more dramatic when the national avg is low (as it is right now). So.
Here are three “hotspots”: Clackmannanshire, Corby & Barnsley:
Look at actual case levels and you see 3 v different stories:
Barnsley had a surge in autumn
Corby avoided the autumn peak but had a massive surge in Jan
Clackmannanshire v different again. No big surge but small bounces (prob local clusters)
As of now, cases falling in each area
Now, there may well be hotspots in the future. These things can spiral quickly. But I’m not sure these would currently meet anyone’s definition of dangerous hotspots.
That said, even when you take a step back and look at the national picture sometimes things can be distorted.
Consider this viral tweet from the @spectator yesterday. Is it true that the UK has had the biggest peak-to-now fall in #COVID cases?
Well, yes if you just look at the figures and ignore the small print. But if you look at the small print?
Not quite...
The @spectator table is based on figs on cases per million over the most recent 7 days, taken from @OurWorldInData, which are in turn taken from CSSE Johns Hopkins who in turn compile figs reported by each country.
Use those numbers and UK cases per m do indeed fall 97.4%! BUT...
Here’s the thing: go into the @OurWorldInData spreadsheet and look closely at daily case numbers and here’s what you find: a -4.8k figure for the UK dating from Friday.
What happened? The UK removed some old positive test results. It was barely reported, but here’s the note:
Remove that negative number (which is anyway a statistical adjustment to HISTORIC cases) from the rolling 7 day average and UK cases per million go up from 22.7 to 38.8.
This number is prob a better picture of where the UK is.
It’s a MASSIVE improvement on recent months.
But alas this piece of small print means the headline on the @spectator piece is not quite right.
The UK is actually not in first but in second place in this table.
Since when you use the adjusted case rate the peak-to-now fall is actually about 95.6%.
This is still AMAZING.
None of this is intended as a criticism of the @spectator’s excellent data hub or indeed @OurWorldInData’s excellent database and charts.
But sometimes the small print is so small no-one notices. And sometimes that has a bearing on the numbers (even if only barely)...
Still: the overall picture in the UK remains really promising. Cases falling fast, as are hospitalisations. On basis of my rough and ready dot plot which completes the SPI-M projections from Feb, things are still looking good.
Real question is how these look 1/2 months from now
Here’s a video we made abt this last night.
NB: most other broadcasters try to steer clear of deep data analysis and charts like these.
They think viewers will switch off.
Not @SkyNews, who care about this stuff and think their viewers do too.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
🧵THE STRANGE CASE OF THE ONE MILLION POUND FINE
The story of an obscure press release on an obscure website which begs intriguing questions about Britain's "unprecedentedly tough" sanctions regime & why perhaps it's not quite as tough as it looks.
You may find it unsettling
👇
Back in Aug 2023, HMRC published this notice in the bowels of its website. Don't worry if it doesn't ring a bell - it didn't get any publicity.
But it's a big deal. A £1m fine for breaking Russian sanctions rules.
The single biggest fine in relation to trade sanctions.
But there are some gaping questions about this fine.
First: who paid it? Is this a firm we've heard of? Second: what did they actually do wrong? And what did they do to deserve to pay such a large sum?
There are no answers on the website. That's it. Here's why this matters.
🇨🇳I was rather hoping to be writing this from China, where the Chancellor has just landed for the most significant economic mission in ages - restarting Britain's formal economic relationship with China.
Alas I'm still in London.
But make no mistake; this visit is a BIG deal.
🧵
Why?
Because this is the first such trip since 2017.
UK econ relations with China have been getting frostier for 6 yrs or more.
Huawei have been thrown out; rules imposed on Chinese businesspeople; accusations of spying.
& around the world nations are imposing tariffs on China.
But the UK is doing something different.
While nearly every other G7 nation has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric cars, the UK hasn't. While most countries are going colder on China (most notably the US), the UK is now cosying up to China. Why?
🔥GAS PRICES🔥
Why are they on the rise again?
Why is Europe (and the UK) deindustrialising at a rapid pace?
Why have we failed (contrary to the conventional wisdom) to increase the amount of non-Russian gas in our system?
Lots of questions. Some answers in my five min primer 👇
This is a big deal - and not widely understood:
The volume of non-Russian gas in the European system is FLAT vs before the Ukraine war.
That's not the conventional wisdom.
Back in 2022 many assumed imported LNG would help make up the lost gas from Russia.
That didn't happen...
Instead what happened is subtly, but importantly, different.
Yes, the amount of LNG coming in from the US rose quite sharply - albeit from a low base.
But that rise was only enough to compensate for the fact that domestic production in the UK/EU was FALLING at the same time
🌾 VERTICAL FARMING🌾
Could it save the world?
I used to be sceptical. There are MANY challenges.
But then I visited one. & I'm no longer so sure.
So with the world facing future food crises here's a thread on the most interesting thing to happen to farming in a long time...
🧵
Let's start with a chart.
A few weeks ago I did a deep data dive into the state of farming in the UK.
It culminated with a v long-run chart suggesting our ability to grow ever more crops in a given hectare is slowing. Possibly stalling.
This is a really big deal
What if we could send the line in that chart 👇into the stratosphere?
It would have massive consequences. We'd be able to get ever more food from a relatively small section of land. Meaning more land for housing/rewilding or whatever else we'd want to use it for. But how?
If you're interested in energy/climate you've probably heard the nugget that "kerosene/crude oil helped save the whales", by reducing demand for whale oil in lanterns.
I've even trotted it out myself🤦♂️
But there's a problem with it. A BIG problem...
🧵
The backstory here begins 200 years ago, before the age of crude oil & electricity, when the best way to light a room was a lantern, and the best oil to burn in that lantern was oil from a sperm whale.
It burnt brighter and with less smoke or stink than other oils
The oil itself is found in the head of the sperm whale. It comes from a totally unique organ whose function remains a matter of debate - the spermaceti organ.
Whale oil is a long chain molecule unlike nearly anything else in the natural world, giving it unique qualities
If you're even half interested in energy, I bet you've seen this chart. I call it The Most Hopeful Chart in the World.
The point? We're embracing renewable power MUCH faster than expected.
Hurrah!
Only problem is, this chart has an evil twin. A chart we really need to discuss
🧵
The Most Hopeful Chart in the World shows how each year the @IEA predicted that the amount of solar output around the world would plateau or rise v slowly in the following years. But instead solar output defied all expectations, rising exponentially.
That's great news.
But making solar panels is an energy-intensive exercise.
You need a lot of coal to smelt down the silicon and a lot of power to turn metallurgical silicon into polysilicon, let alone the monocrystalline boules you really need for a decent solar module (read my book for more 📖)