One thing we’ve learnt about #COVID stories:
Often something that looks too scary to be true isn’t quite true when you look at the small print.
Often something that looks too good to be true isn’t quite true when you look at the small print.
There have been a few scary stories in recent weeks about “hotspots” of #COVID19 around the UK.
Partly inspired by maps like this (this one from @PHE_uk) which compare local case levels with the national avg. The reddest area here is Barnsley
One problem with heatmaps is that while they do a good job of depicting regional variation, they don’t give you much context.
And they can look more dramatic when the national avg is low (as it is right now). So.
Here are three “hotspots”: Clackmannanshire, Corby & Barnsley:
Look at actual case levels and you see 3 v different stories:
Barnsley had a surge in autumn
Corby avoided the autumn peak but had a massive surge in Jan
Clackmannanshire v different again. No big surge but small bounces (prob local clusters)
As of now, cases falling in each area
Now, there may well be hotspots in the future. These things can spiral quickly. But I’m not sure these would currently meet anyone’s definition of dangerous hotspots.
That said, even when you take a step back and look at the national picture sometimes things can be distorted.
Consider this viral tweet from the @spectator yesterday. Is it true that the UK has had the biggest peak-to-now fall in #COVID cases?
Well, yes if you just look at the figures and ignore the small print. But if you look at the small print?
Not quite...
The @spectator table is based on figs on cases per million over the most recent 7 days, taken from @OurWorldInData, which are in turn taken from CSSE Johns Hopkins who in turn compile figs reported by each country.
Use those numbers and UK cases per m do indeed fall 97.4%! BUT...
Here’s the thing: go into the @OurWorldInData spreadsheet and look closely at daily case numbers and here’s what you find: a -4.8k figure for the UK dating from Friday.
What happened? The UK removed some old positive test results. It was barely reported, but here’s the note:
Remove that negative number (which is anyway a statistical adjustment to HISTORIC cases) from the rolling 7 day average and UK cases per million go up from 22.7 to 38.8.
This number is prob a better picture of where the UK is.
It’s a MASSIVE improvement on recent months.
But alas this piece of small print means the headline on the @spectator piece is not quite right.
The UK is actually not in first but in second place in this table.
Since when you use the adjusted case rate the peak-to-now fall is actually about 95.6%.
This is still AMAZING.
None of this is intended as a criticism of the @spectator’s excellent data hub or indeed @OurWorldInData’s excellent database and charts.
But sometimes the small print is so small no-one notices. And sometimes that has a bearing on the numbers (even if only barely)...
Still: the overall picture in the UK remains really promising. Cases falling fast, as are hospitalisations. On basis of my rough and ready dot plot which completes the SPI-M projections from Feb, things are still looking good.
Real question is how these look 1/2 months from now
Here’s a video we made abt this last night.
NB: most other broadcasters try to steer clear of deep data analysis and charts like these.
They think viewers will switch off.
Not @SkyNews, who care about this stuff and think their viewers do too.
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📽️Is Britain REALLY facing a 1970s-style fiscal crisis?
Why are investors so freaked out about UK debt?
Is this REALLY worse than under Liz Truss?
Who's to blame? Rachel Reeves? The Bank of England?
And would a bit of productivity really solve everything?
📈 Your 6 min primer👇
OK, so let's break it down.
Start with the chart everyone (well, everyone in Whitehall) is talking about.
The 30yr UK government bond yield. Up to the highest level since 1998. And it's still rising.
Does this mean the UK is facing a fiscal crisis? Let's look at the evidence
First let's compare the UK to other G7 countries.
There's two ways to do this.
First, look at absolute levels👇
And it looks pretty awkward for the UK.
Pre-mini Budget we were middle of the pack. That changed post-Truss. And now, under Labour, the UK is even more of an outlier.
👗Billions of pounds of imports...
↗️Rising by more than 50% a year...
🛬Planes stuffed with cheap clothes...
🇨🇳And a loophole saving Chinese companies from £billions of UK taxes.
Behind the scenes of one of the biggest stories in the modern economy: e-commerce
👇
We've spent months investigating this phenomenon.
- We've got the first official estimate of the scale of cheap untaxed imports into the UK.
- We've seen inside the planes carrying these goods here.
- A whole logistics industry is growing around it.
This is a v big deal!
The story begins with a MASSIVE rise in orders from Chinese e-commerce giants like SHEIN and Temu.
Now, most coverage of these brands focuses on labour standards. An important issue.
But there's something else going on here - something deeper.
A shift in how trade works...
🧵Some thoughts re inflation.
Not the data today, but two deep issues we should prob spend more time thinking about. 1. While economists and policymakers may have convinced themselves that the cost of living squeeze is over, for millions of households, it doesn't feel that way.
The key thing to remember here is that when economists talk about inflation what they're really talking about is the ANNUAL RATE at which a basket of goods and services changes price. And certainly, that rate is much lower than the 2022 peaks...
But, as I say, what that number is is simply looking at the difference in the LEVEL of prices over the past year. This chart is that level. (The actual consumer price index!).
And yes, look over the year to May and it's up 3.4%.
🧵Why, barely 24 hours after the Spending Review, is everyone already going on about tax rises?
Are they REALLY coming?
Or is this an "incoherent argument", as one leading minister calls it?
Well here's a thread explaining what's really going on here.
Bear with me...
First things first.
Key thing to remember is that the main job of HMT is to generate enough money, mostly via taxes (left hand bar here), to finance all its spending (right hand bar).
If that left hand bar isn't high enough, we have to borrow to fill the gap.
That's the deficit!
This week's Spending Review was about the right hand column, obvs. But not ALL of the column.
Actually more than half of govt spending is on stuff that WASN'T covered by the spending review - on benefits, debt interest, pensions etc. It's called "annually managed expenditure"
🧵
You may recall a spate of stories a few years ago about appalling working conditions & abysmally low pay in Leicester's clothes factories.
The hope was those stories would shame businesses into improving working conditions.
But here's what ACTUALLY happened next...
👇
Instead of staying in Leicester, most brands abandoned it & shifted production to N Africa & S Asia.
Today Britain's biggest centre of textile & apparel manufacture is battling the threat of extinction.
It's a mostly untold economic story we've spent recent months documenting
Once upon a time Leicester was the beating heart of UK clothes manufacturing.
The city was dotted with factories making clothes for big name brands.
Now, according to one estimate, the number of clothes factories has dropped from 1500 in 2017 to under 100 this year. A 95% fall.
How big a deal is the new trade agreement unveiled between the US and the UK? Here are some initial thoughts.
Start with this: this is total UK exports to the US over the past 5yrs: £273bn. Right now most of this will face a 10% tariff. Some things (eg cars) face 25% extra
Let's break down that total. The biggest chunk is cars. Just under £30bn. That's covered under the agreement. So too are steel/aluminium exports. Much smaller at £2.7bn...
These sectors will benefit from special deals (though much of the detail still remains vague).
Rolls Royce will apparently get tariff free access for its jet engines. That mostly helps Boeing, but also Rolls Royce. Jet engines comprise a surprisingly large chunk of UK exports to the US, about £17.3bn. So let's shade that red too...