kumar saurabh Profile picture
13 Apr, 11 tweets, 2 min read
Time for a small thread 🧵on 10 common secrets of good fundamental analyst and technical analyst (personal view, no ranking)-

1. Makes it a Habit 📡

Fundamental Analyst: To read annual reports and conference call transcripts daily

Technical Analyst: To study few charts daily
2. Knows what to Ignore🙈

Fundamental Analyst: Creates his own process/system to ignore most of stuff and knows which companies to focus

Technical Analyst: Creates his own process/system to ignore most of stuff and knows which charts to focus
3. Knows when to ignore⏰

Fundamental Analyst: Knows when not to invest and can sit on cash looking an idiot

Technical Analyst: Knows when not to trade to save from continuous small stop losses or big loss
4. Networks for productivity not tips✡️

Fundamental Analyst: Network for good fundamental ideas however performs his own research

Technical Analyst: Networks for interesting charts but performs his own analysis
5. Goal and Purpose Driven 🎯

Fundamental Analyst: Before making an investment, makes a note of investment rationale, expectation and exit criteria

Technical Analyst: Before making a trade, makes a note of trade logic and exit scenarios for target and stop loss
6. Self Assessment (confusion metric - TP,FP,TN,FN)🔦

Both: Review past ideas periodically to analyze what worked and what did not
7. Discipline🎖️

Both: Stick to his own process/system without distraction and acts according to to overall thesis for investment/trade include rationale for buy, sell and time frame
8. Small Mistakes, Big Successes🛑🚀🚀🚀

Fundamental Analyst: Knows how to cut big investment losses (avoid fraud, overvaluation etc. ), ride big gains

Technical Analyst: Knows how to cut big trade losses (avoid hope trades, follow strict stop losses etc. ), ride big gains
9. Stays Humble🙂

Fundamental Analyst: Avoids I know it all attitude and seeks to learn continuously irrespective of past performance

Technical Analyst: Respects markets and charts than own mental biases. Does not bring ego in trades
10. Master of few, Jack of few more😎🤠

Fundamental Analyst: Invests based on core competency but always strives to create new competencies by learning new sectors, companies etc.

Technical Analyst: Trades based on well tested system but strives to learn new systems/patterns
End of thread. As per me, these are not destinations but journeys. We may be at different level in each of these journeys but idea should be to keep improving every passing day, week, month, year, decade..

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More from @suru27

16 Jan
Is market overvalued?

Market ka kya lagta hai?

What is NIFTY PE?

Well, current PE of NIFTY is 40 but there is more..

A thread covering these questions. 1st thing, uploaded a youtube video on the same. Can watch it n subscribe to channel if like 🙂

The 40 PE of NIFTY is considering TTM earnings (in the table) which includes quarters affected by Covid and we all know that there were temporary business shutdowns due to Covid. So, is not this an outlier situation. So, how to handle it
One way to handle it is- Ignore Covid quarters and go back to previous quarters assuming same performance during Covid quarters. Now the 40 PE reduces to 32.4. Almost a 20% reduction
Read 14 tweets
16 Jan
#NAM Technically, break out is out in the market. Fundamentally, if 1 compares with peers on P&L items, there are possibilities of expense levers to fix. IF new mgmt fixes those, would lead to margin improvement. Topline will also bring more margins. Disc: #technofunda position
This will give some idea what m talking about. Question is can mgmt do
1. Employee cost 2.5x compares to leader. Size of leader is also more than double but thing is - is there an operating leverage possibility? Yes. Check leader employee cost% when it was at current size of NAM
2. Huge cap in operating margin. Can they bridge with size and operations optimization?
Read 8 tweets
26 Nov 20
A thread on the story of financial gurus on Twitter

Please forward, like n retweet so that others do not get fooled

@larissafernand
I know you found some fake account with Twnkle fooling people but this looks a much bigger mess here. So, let me put it.

It all started
when I got tagged on various learn from so called financial guru tweets. This is going to be a long thread n many accounts are going to get naked as an when I find them. The story of follow these gurus bullshit.

First common patterns:
1. Most of these accounts who suggest to
follow x, y, z guru have been created post march 2020 (let's call them chela)

2. These accounts have never liked even a single tweet of some of gurus highlighted

3. There are some Gurus who took birth in 2020 on Twitter n now everyone is recommending them

4. Some so
Read 19 tweets
4 Nov 20
@OldSchoolFinanc A small thread on working capital economics of pharma and drug companies taken out from my dashboard.
Assumptions:
1. Data does not include any company with <10 cr annual PAT or <200 cr market cap company for a given year Image
2. Investment options are chosen for start of every financial year
3. 52 pharma companies could qualify from 2003 to 2015 for calculating 3Y CAGR
Insights:
1. Considering I have already removed any loss making company year (even if sun pharma makes losses not included), means
I am somehow trying to retain profitable options , that itself is 1st filter
2. >39% of companies (in profitable basket) have WC/Sales > 40% and >56% companies have WC/Sales > 30%
3. Companies with highest WC/Sales ratio (>40% basket) have given worst 3 year CAGR of 18%
Read 8 tweets
7 Oct 20
#ARNotes #hindustanfood. 15 hr day in office but reading analysing AR brings all energy back :). This one was long due. Had mentioned on reading an interesting AR. Cash flows, margins n valuation need serious monitoring, not easy to decipher at this stage of journey #AR28
Read 7 tweets

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