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Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
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13 Apr, 12 tweets, 3 min read
A selection of threads from public heath/vaccine/epidemiology people I follow

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More from @BenjySarlin

Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
12 Apr
@JHWeissmann Yeah, the case isn't "McConnell didn't do anything," it's that there was a world where Trump might be forced into political exile right now while McConnell is restoring the party to his version. Instead trends Trump launched are arguably accelerating
@JHWeissmann But you also have to look at the other side of the ledger. 2009-2016 McConnellism also laid the groundwork for everything Biden is doing so far, ignoring GOP votes to try to pass gigantic bills that pay off every D constituency instead.
@JHWeissmann So if the result ends up: You empowered Donald Trump, who transformed the party into something antithetical to your version, and your bet to blockade Obama led to the biggest progressive legislative bonanza since LBJ, I think that's a pretty mixed bag here
Read 4 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
22 Mar
One issue here is that what we're talking about when we talk about "border security" changed. The 2013 framework was about D's trading legalization for more patrol, fence, work checks. But today's debate is largely about asylum seekers, which was not a major concern at the time.
Before the first child migrant crisis, D's had a simple formula: Give R's any amount of money for border security, no matter how absurd, in exchange for path to citizenship. But walls and patrols don't address the current q, what do you do with people legally requesting to stay.
You do not have a right to cross the border illegally just to work, but you do have a legal right to go to the border and try to claim asylum. The answer to how to deal with that issue at every step of the way is far more complex and divisive.
Read 5 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
16 Mar
One wrinkle of filibuster debate worth considering. One reason McConnell never budged on legislative filibuster is there weren't many GOP priorities that could get 50 votes. In fact, not many priorities, period. They didn't even use every reconciliation bill available. BUT...
...if Democrats were to ditch the filibuster, there would be ENORMOUS pressure on GOP from base to come up with a list of 50-vote bills and whip R votes, if only as punishment to D's. They could essentially invent the demand to pass these bills, if only as a lib owning exercise.
This doesn't necessarily happen without D's ditching the filibuster first. McConnell would just as soon avoid many of these issues. But you may have a Trumpier majority with new room to act on abortion w/ SCOTUS, to name on example, and the last moderate holdouts potentially gone
Read 4 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
12 Mar
The Rubio argument here isn't exactly "it's a worker's party now!" material. It's more: Unions are mostly bad, but we don't like their boss's social politics, therefore let's hold bosses hostage by threatening to withhold our usual opposition to unions. usatoday.com/story/opinion/…
There's virtually no discussion of what the Amazon workers are demanding here. You could read the op-ed and come away thinking they were protesting the LGBT book issues on Fox this week. Just a weird dance between two stories connected only by Republicans mad at Amazon.
These are all links embedded in Rubio's op-ed article. Check out the images tied to Rubio's grievances with Amazon, and the linked story describing the workers' grievances. The connection between them is.....?
Read 5 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
11 Mar
One year ago, speculating Trump would come around to Democratic calls for stimulus checks because he could put his name on them
Reviewing takes from the Last Normal Day is fun. Sure enough, Biden won with a suburban surge, absorbed ideas from activists on the left along the way, and his first bill was much more progressive than his D critics expected
Previewing the weird world that would continue for another 8 months: Democrats constantly offering to pump money into the economy in an election year and Trump strangely ignoring them
Read 4 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
11 Mar
Reading between the lines, the easiest path seems to be using revenue to offset things they’d like to make permanent (child tax credit, ACA subsidies) and declaring the infrastructure/climate part a long term investment. But still a lot to work out for one bill.
The thing is there’s only so much low-hanging fruit on revenue, even for Democrats. So if you do a strict infrastructure/climate bill and use it all up, you’re left with a lot of stuff they’d like to extend that would have to go into a big expensive bill next.
The one near-guarantee here is bipartisanship is not gonna happen. But Manchin already seems to be signaling that won’t keep him from a bill once it becomes clear R’s won’t join in. Everything feels like kabuki around that point.
Read 4 tweets

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