All graphics are 7-day averages. Today’s raw reporting for each metric is in the tweet below.
(Data retrieved directly from state dashboards. Not every state updates its numbers daily.)
UNITED STATES
Today’s raw reported metrics:
- Tests: 1,330,264 (+22,755)
- Cases: 76,267 (+16,481)
- Deaths: 804 (-24)
- Currently Hospitalized: 41,152 (+1,054)
- Currently in ICU: 7,899 (+204)
(+/- compared to same day last week for Tests/Cases/Deaths & yesterday for Hosp/ICU)
Some big plus signs up there (and one important minus sign). Received a few non-pipeline dumps in cases today, but I’m not pulling them out of the numbers. Most are just the slinky effect in action (AL dumped from as far back as Oct, but only 1150 total cases).
We’re now at our highest 7-day average for both cases and % positive since 2/18, but at our lowest number for deaths since 10/19.
MI was another state that seemed to inject a pretty hefty backlog of some sort, but for both cases and tests. So the percent testing positive actually dropped to the point where it’s about flat week-over-week now.
Vaccine update. Yet another new peak for the 7-day average.
We’re starting to see some rise now in regions that were flat or down recently, but let’s see what the rest of the week brings. I’ll get the regionals up here in a few…
A few days ago, I stumbled upon an exchange between @michaelsfuhrer, @greg_travis, @karencutter4, @PienaarJm.
The crux is Greg’s claim of a sharp increase from 2022 to 2023 in 18-44yo deaths from disease in the US (his graphic below).
Greg is wrong.
Join me on a 12-pack 🧵
2/ It quickly became apparent that the main point of contention was whether including R99-coded deaths (“Other ill-defined and unspecified causes of mortality”) in Greg's definition of deaths from disease, as they are later re-coded to non-disease deaths.
3/ Oh, but not to worry. Greg states that "R99 itself is a tiny portion of overall deaths and generally resolves to <2,000 deaths a month overall (out of 300K deaths a month)."
Weekly #Covid19 update in my Substack newsletter, The Issue. Just click the link below.
I'll excerpt a few portions below, but the upshot is: steady rise in cases/% positive, lower rise in Hosps, even lower for ICUs, and continued decline in deaths. thelawyercraig.substack.com/p/covid-19-wee…
"Despite the rise in other metrics, deaths late last week dropped below 300 (7-day-average) for the first time since June/July 2021. ICU census is still well below pre-Omicron pandemic lows."
"Perhaps the best news right now is global Covid deaths. According to Our World in Data, global daily confirmed Covid-19 deaths (7DA) have dropped to 1,772. For comparison, . . . our lowest ever number globally was 4,436 before Omicron entered the picture."
I cannot overstate the absolute idiocy of touting this study purporting to show Omicron is just as likely to send someone to the hospital or the morgue as Delta.
There are 2 enormous issues with this study (among others, I'm sure).
2/ ISSUE #1: The authors use PCR positives as the case denominator and just assume that the "case-to-infection" ratio was similar between all 4 periods. Unbelievable.
The fact that a study can look at the data and just say this boggles my mind. Just read that green highlighting!
3/ Here were Massachusetts' peak positive testing percentages for the 4 different periods in the study (data = @CDCgov)
8.69% - Winter 20-21
2.62% - Spring 21 (sub-1% for 38 days!)
4.47% - "Delta" (per the study)
23.36% - "Omicron"
#Covid19 in South Africa...5th wave? Well, that depends on what metric you use to define wave.
Thread 🧵🧵🧵
2/ If you look at 7DA cases, it's a clear increase. It's a long way off from the OG Omicron peak (and not quite as vertical), but they're still up ~4x in barely over 2 weeks.
3/ But everywhere is testing a bit less these days, so what about % positive? Yep, even more vertical, and more closely resembles the prior waves.
Of course, these are all just tests/infections. Let's look at outcomes...
Down 91.5% from peak. Seeing a rise nationally from recent low of 2.13%. During the entire pandemic, was only lower in June 2021 than our recent numbers.