Thread by @jam_croissant

1/x per usual, Wed’s update’ll be brief...Vanna’s👸gone. But Gary’s🦍@ the top of his game. & although our🦥is no👸, he’s charming enough when Gary’s well FED, & so, as predicted, here we are @ our projected 4140@ our long projected🪟, & WofFortune is crushing the ratings... But

https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1381517292379508736

2/x remember it’s never an easy ride. we’re likely to get some more mowing of the🌷’s & signs of accelerated forced call squeezes across the space before it’s all said & done... If this call squeeze isn’t able to drop kick the🍌🍌 out of Gary’s grasp in the next 1.5 weeks, it’ll

3/x be hard to loosen the grip & turn the tide. Regardless, @ this juncture, gamma is simply too cheap in this🪟& as stated, now that we have hit our objective, it’s time to START accumulating on the upside, gradually replacing stock w/calls or building a delta neutral, short

4/x stock/long OTM call position. Despite the vanna/Charm, Vol targeting, trend following, & risk parity flows that continúe to drive this impulsive leg higher, as Ivols decline, these ‘short gamma’ strategies all represent potential energy for selling into a decline should Ivols

5/x reverse course into a rally. Soooo, Fixed strike IVol is the thing too 👀 like a 🦅... This is particularly true in the NDX. Watch Rates like a 🦅. Watch IWM & NDX for underperformance. That’s is where we’ll be proactively adding convex hedges opportunistically. If a decline

6/x finally comes mid/late next week, be careful buying the initial dip, as seasonality continues to weaken as we approach May & demand flows are waning w/ low short interest @ record low levels, & decreased retail BTD’ers around to cushion the blow. Pair this all w/the potential

7/7 energy of compressed IVOl & skew, & the tail’s likely fatter than its been in a while w/an increasingly neg dist as well. If we can make it through 4/26 w/out a close below 20 day, we’ll know that the strength is there for the rally to continue until tax time in May. Gluck!🍀