India and Pakistan.

A tale of two nations.

Pakistan was a strategic partner of the US for several decades, but this relationship was driven by the US National Security Community/Pentagon and the Pakistani Military.
India on the other hand, was more closely aligned with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, but towards the late 1980s, some young Indian software professionals created a software industry in Bangalore - and this drew the attention of Silicon Valley.
If you examine Nigeria carefully, there are elements of "India" and "Pakistan" at play with our present relationship with the US.

The Pentagon/National Security Community is in a relationship with Nigerian Military narrowly focused on Islamic Terrorism (Boko Haram).
On the other hand, the US Technology Industry is increasingly excited by the Nigerian Tech industry centered around Lagos - and is willing to invest billions of $ in it.

Unfortunately, the Nigerian Government (at all levels) is doing its best to destroy this relationship.
The question we need to ask ourselves is whether we want to be like Pakistan or India in future.

If the National Security/Pentagon relationship booms & we kill Silicon Valley's interest in Nigeria, we'll end up like Pakistan/Afghanistan & would have missed a golden opportunity.

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More from @cchukudebelu

15 Apr
"The Quad".

We've watched this movie before, with the same actors in different roles.

India's relationship with the Soviet Union had a lot more to do with practical geopolitics than ideology.

US was the major backer of Pakistan, its arch rival then.
A Soviet relationship with India, could come in handy in containing China - which was considered a major threat to Moscow.

China, on the other hand, saw Pakistan as a useful tool to contain India (India and China fought a couple of border wars).
US, on the other hand, took advantage of the rift between China and Russia - to support Beijing and further drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing.

Beijing was very happy to support Pakistan to frustrate the Soviet Union in Afghanistan - and so was Washington.
Read 5 tweets
13 Apr
"Ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money"

Oliver Cromwell (dismissing the Rump Parliament)

This applies 100% to the Nigerian political elite.
He goes on;

"Is there a single virtue now remaining amongst you? Is there one vice you do not possess?

Ye have no more religion than my horse. Gold is your God. Which of you have not bartered your conscience for bribes?".
"Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation. You were deputed here by the people to get grievances redressed, are yourselves become the greatest grievance".
Read 4 tweets
13 Apr
It is easy to figure out where Russia and China stand. They do not support democracy.

But with the West, it is not straight forward. On the one hand, they are opposed Myanmar's Military Junta - but on the other, they give Chad's Idris Deby & Egypt's Al Sisi their full support.
So, with the West, 75 - 80% of the time when they express "their support for democracy", they don't actually mean what they say.

The trick is in identifying the 20 - 25% of the time when they actually mean what they are saying about "democracy" and "human rights".
Now, Nigeria is surrounded by Western supported dictators (Chad, Togo, Cameroon). So, it is reasonable to assume that they have very little support for "democracy" or "human rights" in the West African region.

Let's focus on what they do, not what they say.
Read 6 tweets
13 Apr
If a clear and present danger like Boko Haram couldn't unite Nigerians. Then nothing can.

Let's not pretend that we didn't live through 2010 till present. Let's not pretend that we didn't observe how Boko Haram was used as a stepping stone to advance political careers.
Let's stop pretending that we didn't observe the "scorched earth" tactics of several prominent politicians;

I.e. "burn everything to the ground so I can emerge the last man standing".
Instead of a "national vision", they advanced a regional vision.

Certain politicians got the EU, USAID, DFID and every Western aid agency on earth to focus exclusively on two regions in the North - nothing genuine, but to "position their regions ahead of other regions".
Read 5 tweets
12 Apr
Before deciding to enter a new market, serious firms do a PESTEL analysis. Twitter must have done that too.

Political: how politically stable is Nigeria compared to Ghana?
Economic: Would you want to invest in Nigeria, with its crazy monetary policies, high inflation etc.
Socio-Cultural: Is a hypocritically conservative society like Nigeria with serious ethno-religious strife, the best location for a social media network?
Technological: Nigeria probably beats Ghana here, but other factors count against Nigeria.
Environmental: Not relevant here.
Legal/Regulatory: This is where Ghana beats Nigeria hands down. Regulations impacting on technology/fintech in Nigeria are often arbitrary, and counter-productive. No sensible person would want to invest in technology here - not after the experience of Gokada etc.
Read 4 tweets
12 Apr
The people who won the nasty ethno-religious power struggle of 2015 couldn't give a toss whether you've "lost all passion for Nigeria".

As far as they are concerned, you were "useful idiots" who facilitated their rise to power.

And they have no further use for you.
If you like, emigrate. They don't care.

If you like, complain as they systematically destroy your fintech business. They don't care.

Their major Achilles Heel is that they are economically illiterate - so their only interest in you is whatever diaspora dollars you can bring in.
As for your oyibo friends, those ones stopped caring a long time ago. For the academics among them, their only interest in you is linked to funding for research grants.

Nobody close to power in either US or UK still cares about #EndSARS, they forgot about that a long time ago.
Read 4 tweets

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