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Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
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15 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1: 1 million or 1:250,000 risk of clot from vaccine sounds scary for many.

Non-COVID comparison:
risk of death 1:5000, for women who become pregnant.(MMR)

In India it’s 1:900.

That’s the risk women accept when they plan pregnancy.

1/4
 yahoo.com/news/dont-star… via @YahooNews
The risk of death for women who decide to become pregnant is 1:5000 in US, 1:900 in India (overall), 1:2000 in Kerala, India,1:546 in Zambia.

That is the risk all women knowingly or unknowingly accept when they plan pregnancy. (These data are from well before pandemic)

2/4
Low numeracy is a universal problem; when the human mind is unable to distinguish between different fractions or ratios.

Hence, the risk of vaccines is grossly exaggerated.

🔴 Let me list a few other risks below for comparison, to see how we perceive risk:

3/4
For every 100,000 people with:

🔺COVID-19 at age 85:
15,000 die

🔺COVID-19 at age 65: 1400 die

🔺Use of OC pills: 100 get clots

🔺Use the road(Kerala): 150 injured, 14 die/year

🔺Get pregnant: 20 die (US), (110 in India)

🔺Get COVID vaccine: 0.5 gets a clot (or less)

4/4

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More from @RajeevJayadevan

Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
17 Apr
B.1.617 variant is different from other named variants. The 2 mutations L452R & E484Q in the spike protein are unique.

There are a total of 15 mutations which also involve structural proteins, replication enzymes and non-structural proteins.

1/9
forbes.com/sites/williamh…
In the UK, this strain has been growing quickly, similar to B.1.1.7.

In India it has been found in MH, GJ areas. It represented 6% of the 2844 genomes submitted from India to GISAID since March 1.

Without more data, it is impossible to comment on its growth in India.

2/9 ImageImageImage
Although its mutations are consistent with immune escape (antibodies) and faster spread, proof is required.

At this time it is only a possibility that the B.1.617 mutant (also dubbed ‘double mutant’) has these abilities.

Also detected in Belgium, UK, NZ, Ireland etc.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
12 Apr
AstraZeneca Vaccine and clots: this important paper from Germany proves that VITT is not the result of cross-reactivity between anti-spike antibodies and platelet factor 4 (PF4).

See thread and links below 👇

researchsquare.com/article/rs-404…
VITT is vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia, an extremely rare and serious complication with low platelet count & unusual clot formation.

This is being extensively discussed in the context of AstraZeneca’s COVID vaccine.

This thread explains the research above.

1/n
The researchers’ findings also suggest that PF4 antibodies are likely an “innocent bystander” in many patients. In other words, their presence alone does not predict disease.

In fact, 9 of 10 COVID-19 patients who had thrombosis did not have PF4 antibodies.

2/n
Read 14 tweets
Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
11 Apr
Bad (wrong) advice from a cardiologist goes viral. Dr Peter McCullough from Baylor college Texas says:

“People under 50 who fundamentally have no health risks, there’s no scientific rationale for them to ever become vaccinated”

⚠️This is wrong advice.

factcheck.afp.com/us-cardiologis…
The reasons he is wrong are:

1. Comorbidities are not the only reason people get sick. Their role in causing severe disease is overestimated. One could be otherwise healthy & still die from it.

2. ~15% of deaths (India data) are below age 45. They deserve protection too.

2/4
3. By reducing the risk of infection, vaccines have a role in diminishing the R-0. Vaccinated people are less likely to give the virus to others. Evidence is emerging on this.

(It is true that a few could still get asymptomatic or mild infections after vaccination)

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
10 Apr
EMA press conference 7 April on vaccine safety

1. Very rare 1:100,000 to 1:600,000 risk of clots with AZ vaccine

2. J& J, a similar vaccine, had a similar case during clinical trials, & 3 cases of unusual clots & low platelets later

1/6
 via @YouTube
3. When reported case numbers are so very small, it is difficult to comment on the exact amount of risk involved, but the risk of COVID-19 far outweighs any adverse outcomes from vaccines.

4. AstraZeneca has been asked for related data on past trials & ongoing trials

2/6
5. AZ has been asked to do lab studies about how its vaccine can affect clotting

6. University of Utrecht and Erasmus University will be studying the topic of clots, reports expected in ~2 months

7. The pattern does not support link with hormones (OC pill, pregnancy etc)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
10 Apr
Video by John Campbell, a nurse lecturer from 🇬🇧 UK about the possibility of inadvertent injection of vaccine into a blood vessel as a potential cause of fatal blood clots following vaccination.

My recent tweet on this is attached. I have also explained it in my diagram.

1/9
If you blindly inject in the arm a 100,000 times, there is a rare, very rare chance the tip of your needle is sitting inside a tiny blood vessel. That’s basic 7th grade high school probability, not rocket science. Astra vaccine contains 5000 million live viruses in each dose.
2/9
These are live chimp adenoviruses who are genetically “sterilised” that is, they can’t replicate.

But they are meant to be deposited in the deltoid muscle - from where our dendritic cells are expected to pick up the spike protein that is generated as a result.

3/9
Read 11 tweets
Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
7 Apr
Taking an exam in a classroom with social distancing & protocols in place is a relatively safe activity. The risk is a lot higher in regular classes where children sit in crowded rooms for several hrs & talk. Discussion on @IndiaAheadNews @Smita_Sharma feasibility of CBSE exams.
The risk for transmission is greater when people sit together and talk for a long time in closed spaces without masks. Shorter time spent, less talking fewer people and more ventilation will reduce risk. ImageImage
Children have extremely low risk of dying from COVID-19, as I discussed yesterday. See the graphs.

Overall death risk is 1 in 1 million (much lower than other causes of death at that age), and 1:50,000 if they got COVID-19. @IndiaAheadNews @Smita_Sharma @PIB_India @IMAIndiaOrg
Read 4 tweets

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