Just to continue pissing people off about this, civilians who talk about "forever wars" were not "at war." We were never asked to sacrifice a damn thing. Volunteers were in combat and in danger in two short actual wars and then in protracted, preventive security ops. /1
Americans wanted to be "at war" to gain clear "victory" in places where that wasn't possible. We destroyed AQ, the Hussein regime, and most of ISIS. All things that made us more secure, and then we said: "Okay, just keep doing whatever it is that's working, we're busy." /2
As @dandrezner once wrote, U.S. governing elites were not constrained by foreign policy issues because the public doesn't really care about. The military was war weary and overstretched, but the public just didn't care that much, no matter how much they say they did. /3
We have been captured by our belief that moderns wars have "exit strategies" and "end states," when in reality the ungoverned suburbs of civilization do not have conflicts with neat expiration dates. What matters is how much risk you'll accept. We wanted zero risk, zero costs. /4
We allowed AFG to become a political football, with whoever made the first move to escalate a "warmonger" and whoever made the first move to get out a "coward." We, the people, paralyzed elected leaders because we wanted safety and didn't want to hear costs or "how." /5
In the meantime, we called everything "war" and created a new class of Spartans, venerated by civilians who wanted to believe we were all in a great fight together. TYFYS became a mantra about a "war" that the politicians wouldn't end - b/c wouldn't let them end it. /5
We outsourced security to volunteers and told them to put their medals on their license plates. We created public rituals of military-patriotic theater that would have made the old USSR nod with recognition. But make a decision either to stay or to go?
Oh, no, no thank you. /6
And don't for a moment think this wasn't bipartisan. Some of us wanted to leave, some to say, but in the end it was "just keep doing whatever it is, and we'll justify it as 'war,'" instead of just being cold, hard adults making cold, hard decisions about a dangerous world. /7
I'm okay with Biden's decision; we've lost any sense of purpose so it's wise to end it. I'd have *also* been okay with "Look, we're staying forever, and if you join the military, expect to go there, and here's WHY."
But "just go keep the bad people away" wasn't a policy. /8
I'm not actually against nation-building and "staying as deterrence." Worked pretty well in a lot of places we've fought. But you have to be willing to stick around in a dangerous place for a long time; that's why I brought up Korea. (Kids, ask your parents about the PUEBLO.) /9
But staying because you don't have a plan and you're just racking up enemy kills isn't a policy. We stayed too long and risked lives out of inertia. But if the U.S. public one day blames Joe Biden for another threat emanating from Central Asia, I hope they remember today. /10
We fought two brief wars against two regimes and deposed them both. Then we stayed because the public wanted to say TYFYS and fly flags but couldn't be arsed to figure out what they wanted from those victories. That's not a reason to say. So I'm glad we're out. I guess. /11x

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More from @RadioFreeTom

15 Apr
If you wonder why I bristle at "forever war" terminology about AFG, imagine a war where far more Americans are killed - say, 35K- there's never a peace treaty, and we stay for another 70 years to help nation-build.
Totally unacceptable! Insane! Forever!

That would be Korea.

/1
This is not an argument for staying in Afghanistan. It's an argument for making sure that when we debate the use of force and the risk to our security, we don't get sloppy with terms like "war" just to engage in political point-scoring. I think leaving AFG is unavoidable now. /2
I think Trump did it wrong and caused a lot of damage. Biden's doing it better, but it's still the best of a lot of bad options, in part because we obsessed on the word "war" which implies that any end is either "victory" or "defeat," neither of which is going to happen here. /3
Read 5 tweets
15 Apr
Part of the problem all along has been the "forever war" moniker that isolationists of the right and left stuck on this. It's not a war. It was policing and prevention. But we're not allowed to say that. So it became "America's longest war" long after it wasn't a war. /1
There were other problems: No military commanders wanted to accept that they couldn't "solve" this, so they kept saying "it's going well." Sure it was, if you mean "not a base for another 9/11," which is a good metric. /2
And yes, the early years were full of optimism that we could build a stable nation out of AFG. This was too big a job and we weren't ever going to commit to something that size, esp by using the military. /3
Read 7 tweets
11 Apr
I am being a bear about the WMD historical record is not to rehab Bush and especially not Rumsfeld (who anyone who knew me in 2002-2006 could tell you I despised). I am doing so in part because a lot of good people you've never heard of were doing their best to figure it out. /1
One of the things I learned writing a book about preventive war is that a lot of people in the U.S. and Europe who worked these issues were genuinely worried and weren't sure what they were seeing. They were terrified of getting it wrong. /2
The political pressure on them to find a way to rationalize taking out Saddam was intense, but the idea of "taking out Saddam" was not as reviled as it is now, no matter what revisionism you're being fed. The idea that everyone was lying is shitting on decent people. /3
Read 4 tweets
11 Apr
"I think that our policy to change regimes is a good one. We should support a new regime in Iraq. And I think we should try the arms inspection one more time, because I think we also have big long-term benefits in cooperation with our allies through the United Nations." /1
"I don't think it will be a great military problem if we do it. You know, our guys did great there the last time, in the Gulf War. We're stronger, and he's weaker than he was then." /2
"The security challenge will be, you can't surprise him. You've got to move a lot of people in. And if he has chemical and biological agents, AND I BELIEVE HE DOES, he would have no incentive not to use them then, if he knew he was going to be killed anyway and deposed."
/3
Read 4 tweets
11 Apr
Well, thanks to @besttrousers for dropping the Iraq WMD grenade in my lap - you shall pay, Matt - but one thing to remember is that Saddam could have screwed over Bush and Blair by complying with UN demands at the last minute. In fact, U.S. was worried he'd do that. /1
@besttrousers Saddam's own generals later were debriefed and said stuff like "Well, my unit didn't have them, but the units near me did." When you're so good at this your own generals think they exist, you can imagine that foreign intel agencies aren't betting on the under. /2
@besttrousers No major intel agency anywhere dissented from the basic view that Iraq was hiding WMD. Weapons inspectors wanted more time to prove a negative, that Iraq *didn't* have them. Duelfer later found none, but intent to preserve the WMD programs for quick restart. /3
Read 4 tweets
1 Apr
I think where @fmkaplan and @NarangVipin I are getting our wires crossed on nuclear strategy is that Fred is thinking of the SIOP Kennedy was briefed on where we hit China just to be sure, to which USMC commandant Shoup viscerally objected. Fred is right, we had that plan. /1
@fmkaplan @NarangVipin But "counterforce," the idea that we could strike military targets *first* and hope for some sort of cease-fire and "intra-war deterrence" was built in to our strategy. This was not a Reagan innovation. It was aspirational but limited by bomber slowness and missile accuracy. /2
What looks like a "counterforce revolution" later is just better technology that lets us decrease the megatonnage we're throwing at the same targets, but the idea was still to hit military targets first, limit the damage, and then melt everything else if there's no letup. /3x
Read 4 tweets

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