Kit Yates Profile picture
Apr 16, 2021 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Short 🧵 on case data.
This week sees a big milestone:
All UK Local Authorities have fewer than 100 cases per 100K (7-day rolling average).
TL:DR Generally cases continue to fall in most regions and in most age-ranges, but that doesn't mean this will continue as we open up.
1/9
Cases (per 100K) continue to fall in all home nations. Bigger falls in England and Scotland, smaller in Wales and NI.
All nations are now below 40 per 100K.
Still some way to go before we get back to September levels, but good news.
Cases have fallen in al regions.
Although Yorks & Humber remains the highest cases continue to fall there.
North West nearly back to its (albeit highest of all regions) September level. Some others getting close but others still some way off.
All local authorities in England have fewer than 100 cases per 100K.
237 out of 315 English local authorities showed reductions and those that increased were from a low level.
The top 20 English LAs are given in the second figure.
Almost all Scottish, Welsh and NI LAs showed reductions in the number of cases per 100K.
In all regions of England cases per 100K for under 20s dropped week on week.
Similar drops in cases per 100K are seen in 20-59 year-olds acorss England, but the falls are less pronounced.
Cases per 100K for over 60 year-olds have stabilised for all regions at low levels except for Yorks & Humberside which has shown a small rise.
Important to remember that most schools are still out for Easter and the impact of the most recent relaxations will not appear here
But, overall it's a good picture. Cases coming down in all nations, all regions of England and across the different age groups to differing degrees
Thanks as always to Bob Hawkins for his help with preparing the data.

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

Jun 25
As the UK’s general election campaign enters its final few weeks, we’ve already seen numerous examples of dodgy declarations, substandard stats and graph gaffs.

So I thought I'd write about the importance of numeracy to the functioning of democracy.
🧵
We can expect to see more questionable claims in the run up to polling day.
The factor that all these all these missteps have in common is that they involve the manipulation or misrepresentation of numerical quantities.
One of the most hotly disputed figures of the campaign so far has been the Conservatives’ claim that Labour’s policies will, as Rishi Sunak put it, “amount to a £2,000 tax rise for everyone”. Labour have rebuffed this figure, arguing that...
theguardian.com/politics/artic…
Read 29 tweets
Jun 13
Politicians will get away with the things we forget, so here is a list of things to remember about the government's record on covid:
1. Over 230,000 died from covid in the UK.
2. They partied while we weren't allowed to see our loved ones. Thousands died alone.
...
3. They were too late taking action in spring 2020.
4. They delayed again in autumn of 2020.
5. They waited until they had no other choice in winter of 2020/2021.
6. They funnelled cash to their mates through the VIP lane.
7. PPE provided to our healthcare workers was inadequate.
8. They failed to heed the warnings in the pandemic planning exercises.
9. The promised a protective ring around care homes and instead sent infected patients to them from hospitals.
There are many more, these are just the most egregious.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 2
A water company released sewage into the stream that runs into the beach where we were holidaying. I didn’t like the idea of swimming in the sea after that, so I tried to sue to water company for spoiling our holiday. This is what happened…
1/21
First up, cards on the table, I am a keen outdoor swimmer. I swim with a group of friends most weeks in our local stretch of the Thames. Come rain or shine, winter or summer, there are usually at least two of our number bracing the river waters north of Oxford.
2/21
We do so cautiously, however, especially in winter when it has been raining heavily and it is almost guaranteed that sewage will have been pumped into the river a few miles upstream.
The giveaway as to whether there has been a discharge or not is the smell.
3/21
Read 21 tweets
Mar 14
It's π-day (3/14 in US date format) - the international day of mathematics.
But people often ask me why π is important. Why do we care about calculating more and more digits?
In short, "What is the point of π?"
Well, here is the answer...
1/
3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510...
The number of digits after the decimal place in pi extend off into the distance (these are the first 50).
Truncating π's decimal expansion after the second decimal place (3.14) is sufficient to specify the date of pi day.
With 11 digits of π we can calculate the circumference of the Earth from its radius with an error of just a mm.
With 38 digits we can compute the circumference of a circle encompassing the whole of the known Universe with an accuracy to within the radius of a hydrogen atom.
3/
Read 38 tweets
Feb 29
It's leap day - February 29th.

It's a special day - the rarest in our calendar.

But do you know why we have leap days at all and how often exactly they come around?

Read on to find out...
1/21
This exceptional day has been associated with weird and wonderful traditions over the years: from the wildly outdated notion that 29th of February is the only day when women can propose to men, to the Leaper Year festival held in Anthony, New Mexico.
2/21
vox.com/2016/2/29/1113…
As a rule of thumb, leap days come around every four years. But there are exceptions to this rule. For example, at the turn of every century we miss a leap year. Even though the year is divisible by four, we don’t add a leap day in the years that end in 00. But...
3/21
Read 23 tweets
Dec 21, 2023
Main points from the ONS/UKHSA Winter Infection survey.
TL-DR: There has been an increase in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England and Scotland during the 2 weeks leading up to 13 December 2023.
1/8
gov.uk/government/sta…
In England and Scotland, the estimated prevalence on 13 December was 4.2% (95% Credible intervals (CrI): 3.3%, 5.4%), equivalent to around 2,549,000 individuals (95% CrI: 1,996,000 to 3,236,000) being infected or around 1 in 24 people (95% CrI: 1 in 30 to 1 in 19).
2/8 Image
In England, the estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 on 13 December was 4.3% (95% CrI: 3.3%, 5.4%), equivalent to 2,333,000 individuals (95% CrI: 1,825,000 to 2,953,000) being infected with SARS-CoV-2. This corresponds to around 1 in 24 people (95% CrI: 1 in 30 to 1 in 19).
3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets

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