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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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16 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
NEW: 46% of Republicans in our YouGov/The Economist poll this week said that the MLB's decision to move the All Star game out of GA would cause them to watch less or no baseball. 16% of Democrats said the same — and 21% said it'll make them watch more!

docs.cdn.yougov.com/wvjmyy0dlk/eco… Image
People are pretty bad at gauging how events will impact their behavior, so I don't know how accurate these aggregate numbers are, but the partisan differences are pretty striking.
I'm not quite sure what the line is between expressive responding and pavlovian partisanship, but we're nearing it
I don't think anyone is surprised by the overall trend, but there might be something to learn in that the response is stronger for Reps than Dems. I would obviously be more surprised if the findings were null, but that doesn't make the results useless.

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
18 Apr
New Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 63% of adults want to establish age or term limits on Supreme Court justices. Given the poll also finds expanding the size of the court is unpopular, this should be the Democrats’ new position on reform

reuters.com/business/legal…
The trouble with this (the quoted tweet) is that Ds can’t just pack & “move on.” I think 4 new justices is a great idea! I also happen to think it will basically ensure Republicans win control of the federal government in 2024. Seems like something Dems would want to avoid
Ok, fair enough. Ds could spend a whole lot of time & effort trying to convince voters that packing is fine, with a high chance that it’ll backfire tremendously. Or they could try to start a movement for something that 65-75% of voters support & focus on other parts of the agenda
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
15 Apr
Perceptions of the safety of the J&J covid-19 vaccine...

..before CDC recommended a pause on shots:
Safe - 52%
Unsafe - 26%

...after CDC recommendation:
Safe - 37% (-15)
Unsafe - 39% (+13)

today.yougov.com/topics/politic…
Unfortunately no, only J&J
What I'm super curious about is this chart...

If I take the Economist/YouGov poll, sale the J&J safe/unsafe question as a scale from -2 to 2, and then plot the trend over the course of the poll, there seems to be a large dip on Monday too. Any ideas?

Read 10 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
14 Apr
These Monmouth approval crosstabs match YouGov's almost exactly, but M's topline number is about 4-5 percentage points higher than YG's. This fits a broader pattern of party/vote-unweighted data being better for Biden that makes me think partisan nonresponse is still pretty high.
To restate the tweet: I am worried that polling aggregates are overestimating Biden's approval rating just like they overestimated his vote share last November
I thought it could be a mode effect, but I think this has to do with weighting, given that the party-weighted Civiqs data is also less favorable to Biden but other online polls aren't. I'm not saying 100% but this fits the narrative
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
12 Apr
This is the “elections have consequences” graph
I meant this as more of a state government capacity tweet, not a “Biden is sending vaccines only to blue states” tweet
Good point! Just clearing things up for other people :)
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
10 Apr
Historically speaking, presidents that bucked the polls and ignored the majority — or, worse, used propaganda to manipulate opinion so they could cite polls later — have done more damage than those who just listened to the people most of the time & led when they thought necessary
The criticism of polls that some politicians just blindly follow them to win elections missed the mark. It’s a straw man set up by contrarian opinion columnists, minority lawmakers, and other elites so they can argue against giving the public opinion its proper due in Washington.
The other big argument in the lit — that “leadership” stands in tension with looking at polls — is both a false dichotomy and predicated on the idea that the people make bad judgments and are too dumb for self-government, which isn’t borne out in the scholarship.
Read 7 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
8 Apr
Pew is having a great, transparent discussion about partisan bias in polling across their recent reports. Here are two new ones you should read:

1) pewresearch.org/methods/2021/0…

2) pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021…
One thing to note, across Pew’s postmortems and others’, is that the “solution” to 2016/2020 seems to be an increased reliance on weighting, more investment in sophisticated sampling techniques, or both — neither of which are readily available to firms without a ton of resources.
High-quality public opinion research is still possible, both online and off, but this means that we should expect more variance in good polls and more bias in bad polls. Not a great situation to be in, and the bandaids being proposed don’t really fix the underlying issues.
Read 5 tweets

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