Noah making a common mistake. (Thread)
Because each wind or solar project is so much smaller and cheaper than nuclear, it intuitively seems cheap to build a lot.
As one-off nuclear plants suffer wild cost escalations, we intuitively think building lots will be too costly.
Because each wind or solar project is so much smaller and cheaper than nuclear, it intuitively seems cheap to build a lot.
As one-off nuclear plants suffer wild cost escalations, we intuitively think building lots will be too costly.
https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1383142064242581504
What actually happens in reality to the cost of electricity from building out a fleet of reactors is that electricity gets cheap, partly due to how cheap building fleets of reactors is!
When workers and managers get experience, and supply chains flow, something magic happens.
When workers and managers get experience, and supply chains flow, something magic happens.
One one hand, take Texas, where ~$60 billion of wind and solar dropped to as low as 1% of demand in Feb's life-and-death weather. Even $200 billion more on wind/solar wouldn't fix this.
In France, ~$131 B (USD 2021) nuclear fleet never falls below 50% and provides 70% total TWh.
In France, ~$131 B (USD 2021) nuclear fleet never falls below 50% and provides 70% total TWh.
In Germany a few hundred billion in renewable investment gets you emergency subsidy this year ($6b in January alone) to bail out the existing subsidy which is underwater, while fossil plant capacity is UP over last 20yrs!
Wind+solar has been as low as 3% of demand this year.
Wind+solar has been as low as 3% of demand this year.
Vogtle in Georgia has cost about as much as Barakah in UAE.
But Vogtle is 2x1.1 GW and Barakah is 4x1.4 GW. Difference? Korea has built an entire fleet rapidly and cheaply, RECENTLY, while the two reactors in Georgia were the first started in USA in decades.
Learning is hard.
But Vogtle is 2x1.1 GW and Barakah is 4x1.4 GW. Difference? Korea has built an entire fleet rapidly and cheaply, RECENTLY, while the two reactors in Georgia were the first started in USA in decades.
Learning is hard.
California has had $80 billion invested in wind and solar. But grid operators have to prepare for it to go to nothing any given day.
Electricity prices are absolutely skyrocketing.
And natural gas was up to 47% of total CA generation last year, highest since 2016.
Electricity prices are absolutely skyrocketing.
And natural gas was up to 47% of total CA generation last year, highest since 2016.
Massive costs stack up OUTSIDE of the wind and solar investments just to keep the grid alive. Eventually, these costs are passed down to customers.
California is seeing a late stage of this cost disease, as it commissions emergency power projects just to survive this summer.
California is seeing a late stage of this cost disease, as it commissions emergency power projects just to survive this summer.
Even at Vogtle's disastrous costs, getting 8 AP1000s in California for $90 billion would make you substantially more electricity (~75TWh) than all wind+solar in California combined.
And you would spend much less on the rest of the grid.
Noah's intuition is off. It's revealing.
And you would spend much less on the rest of the grid.
Noah's intuition is off. It's revealing.
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