Andy Kim Profile picture
Apr 17, 2021 20 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Many told me they struggle with decision to end Afghan war. Don’t want war forever, but feel uncertain. That is normal. Ending war does not end pain from 9/11. I took this GroundZero photo. Had with me working in Kabul and now in my Congressional office. Never forget.(THREAD)
Ending a war should never be easy, especially when it carries out collective trauma. Despite working in Afghanistan in 2011, visiting in 2019, and being on Armed Services/Foreign Affairs Committees, I still struggle too on what to do next. Here are some ways to think through.2/20
ORIGINAL MISSION: When Congress authorized the war, the sole objective identified in authorization (2001 AUMF) states: “in order to prevent any future acts of international terrorism against the United States by such nations, organizations or persons.” Stop future attacks. 3/20
THE EFFECT: Al Qaeda in Afghanistan is currently decimated. Estimates are only a few hundred left with no safe haven. Bin Laden killed a decade ago. AQ status has been at this low ineffectual level for years. So why then is there this big debate about ending the war? 4/20
The war effort and mission expanded over years like this: To prevent rise of Al Qaeda, we needed to stop rise of Taliban. To stop rise of Taliban, we need to shore up Afghan military. To do that, we need to shore up Afghan gov. To do that, we need to...(fill in the blank). 5/20
FILL IN THE BLANK: Congress appropriated more than $143B for Afghan reconstruction/support. There was only 50miles of paved road in Afghanistan on 9/11. We built more than 10k miles. hospitals, power grids, etc. We cover more than half of all expenses for entire Afghan gov. 6/20
$88.3B of funds spent to train/equip/sustain Afghan forces. There are over 305,000 Afghan forces. Every year, we pay 75% of their salaries and of total costs of Afghan forces. Afghan gov pays about 10-14%. This will likely continue for years to come. 7/20
WHEN IS ENOUGH? For 20 years, we undertook a conditions-based approach to exiting Afghanistan. The achilles heel of this approach is seen in three harsh realities (1) We can never expect to see an Afghanistan without Taliban. No amount of effort will destroy them entirely. 8/20
(2) Afghan forces will never be able to completely deter threat from potential Taliban assault. (3) No one can or should ever fully trust the word of the Taliban, even if Taliban is part of an intra-Afghan gov agreement. There will always be a risk they will seek power grab. 9/20
If we accept these 3 realities, then the options for US forces fall under two broad categories. (1) We would be prepared to stay in Afghanistan permanently, or (2) We will endure significant risk no matter when we pull troops out. 10/20
Main arguments I’ve heard for staying in Afghanistan permanently (or protracted) is Taliban gains jeopardize gains against terrorists. And costs are lower—we haven’t suffered large US fatalities in recent years. 3k troops not overly burdensome relative to past commitments 11/20
TWO UNKNOWNS: With US forces out, Will the Taliban try to seize control over Afghanistan? If Taliban is successful or if protracted conflict occurs, will that give Al Qaeda or other terrorist group safe haven? No one, not Biden nor any critics, know the answers to these. 12/20
RECONSTITUTION: Some argue Al Qaeda can reconstitute quickly as did ISIS in Syria/Iraq. ISIS’ growth was facilitated by large flows of foreign fighters into Syria funded because of oil fields controlled by ISIS. Conditions are different than what we see in Afghanistan. 13/20
ISIS KHORASAN: Known as ISIS-K, this offshoot of ISIS in Iraq/Syria and competitor to Al Qaeda was the main threat I worried about when I visited Afghanistan in late 2019. Their position in eastern AFG was deeply damaged over the last year, including by the Taliban. 14/20
WOMEN AND CHILDREN: There was a weekend market in Kabul for women owned businesses that I would visit. Would Taliban bring about a return to serious repression against women and children? We are seeing this concern in areas the Taliban controls. 15/20 washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
WHAT I’M LOOKING OUT FOR: As details emerge, I’m paying close attention to whether we can maintain any overflight capabilities(surveillance from unmanned drones) and structure of intel operations. Essentially: how do we maintain eyes on potential terrorist growth? 16/20
MULTIPLE TOOLS: Our ability to shape the future of Afghanistan doesn’t just exist in drones and guns. We still have capable diplomats on the ground and economic tools that can help provide the kind of stability needed for long term success. 17/20
NO GUARANTEES: One time in the Situation Room I remember hearing Obama say “The one thing in this room I never ask for is a guarantee.” That line lingers with me. Our nation has significant power, but we cannot conflate power with control. 18/20
There is sometimes an illusion of control with work at White House. Hubris can make us think we will be greeted as liberators in Iraq or that war would end in months. I believe it’s time to end this war, but we are embarking on a new direction that carries inherent risks. 19/20
END OF CHAPTER: As the last soldier leaves this year, we’ll turn a page on this conflict and era. But what comes next? What will define this new era in the way Afghanistan did? Next week, I’ll give you my thoughts on the new chapter of global politics about to begin. (END)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Andy Kim

Andy Kim Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AndyKimNJ

Mar 1
This is the most telling photo I’ve seen — Trump/Vance berating a wartime leader fighting against invasion directly in front of a bust of Churchill. It looks like Churchill is seated in the back, watching Trump kill the very US-Europe alliance that Churchill helped forge. THREAD Image
Why was the Oval Office exchange so humiliating to watch? It’s because every American alive today was born after the Greatest Generation led America’s rise to global leadership. What we saw yesterday was a surrender that could very well lead to American decline. 2/10 Image
What we saw was a retreat from three basic pillars of American leadership: reliability, values, and impact. These are pillars that have been built over generations - from Americans landing on the beaches of Normandy onwards. 3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets
Feb 3
As Trump and Musk gut USAID today, I think back to my first day ever working for the US gov, showing up at the Reagan Building to start at USAID. Shame on them for demonizing Americans who are serving our nation, often in difficult and dangerous places. THREAD Image
We can have a policy debate about how much to spend internationally or what programs to fund, but their hate and paranoia towards other Americans go much deeper. I’m proud I worked at USAID. 2/8
I worked in USAID/Africa bureau where we helped rehabilitate former child soldiers in Uganda, helped with an emerging famine in Malawi. Trump admin complains about China’s growing influence in Africa but then shuts down one of our best tools to fight this. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Jan 21
I just talked to the family of Officer Brian Sicknick, who was killed on Jan 6. He grew up in NJ, served his nation, but was assaulted and killed. His assailants sentenced to prison until pardoned by Trump. Let us lift up Sicknick’s name and memory: THREAD Image
Officer Sicknick’s family’s pain today was so deep. That Trump used his first hours in office pardoning so many involved in that attack on the Capitol including the two of the assailants that attacked Officer Sicknick. It was a betrayal. 2/7 Image
Let’s lift up Officer Sicknick’s name. Let’s remind everyone that an officer was attacked and killed that day. Sicknick laid in state in the Capitol Rotunda, honored by our nation as lawmakers from BOTH sides of the aisle, and now those who killed him are free. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 13
I’ve been asked what it means to be 1st Korean American Senator. On this Korean American day, I want to share a photo of the home where my mom grew up during Korean War. America opened its doors and helped her become a nurse. Last week she stood with me as I was sworn in. THREAD Image
And it isn’t just my mom’s story. Over 120 yrs since the first Koreans came to America. Now there are 2 million Korean Americans. 24 million Asian Americans. Asian Americans are not monolithic. 

I of course do not speak for all, nor is my story and experience reflective of all. 2/10Image
In fact I’ve struggled with my identity over my life. At times I resisted the label Korean/Asian American and snapped back with “I’m just American.” 

I never would have imagined that Korean culture would become hugely popular between BTS, Squid Game, Korean BBQ, K-dramas etc. 3/10Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 6
I’m walking through the Capitol this morning and took some photos in the same spots as what we saw 4 years ago Image
Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 21, 2024
Many in north/central NJ are worried about odor/taste of water coming out of the tap. As a father of two boys, I absolutely understand your worries. I talked with heads of NJ Dept of Environmental Protection and American Water.

Here are 4 key questions I asked: THREAD Image
IS THE WATER SAFE? 

DEP/American Water report that water is well within NJ standards, which are some of the strictest in nation. They test for 100s of kinds of metals/ chemical compounds. Results are either non-detection or very low and far below levels of health concerns. 2/10
DO WE KNOW SOURCE OF ODOR/TASTE?

I completely understand if that explanation of water safety is not totally reassuring to those of you that smell/taste something wrong. You have a right to be concerned. Absolute key is identifying what is the compound that is causing the odor. 3/10
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(