Many told me they struggle with decision to end Afghan war. Don’t want war forever, but feel uncertain. That is normal. Ending war does not end pain from 9/11. I took this GroundZero photo. Had with me working in Kabul and now in my Congressional office. Never forget.(THREAD)
Ending a war should never be easy, especially when it carries out collective trauma. Despite working in Afghanistan in 2011, visiting in 2019, and being on Armed Services/Foreign Affairs Committees, I still struggle too on what to do next. Here are some ways to think through.2/20
ORIGINAL MISSION: When Congress authorized the war, the sole objective identified in authorization (2001 AUMF) states: “in order to prevent any future acts of international terrorism against the United States by such nations, organizations or persons.” Stop future attacks. 3/20
THE EFFECT: Al Qaeda in Afghanistan is currently decimated. Estimates are only a few hundred left with no safe haven. Bin Laden killed a decade ago. AQ status has been at this low ineffectual level for years. So why then is there this big debate about ending the war? 4/20
The war effort and mission expanded over years like this: To prevent rise of Al Qaeda, we needed to stop rise of Taliban. To stop rise of Taliban, we need to shore up Afghan military. To do that, we need to shore up Afghan gov. To do that, we need to...(fill in the blank). 5/20
FILL IN THE BLANK: Congress appropriated more than $143B for Afghan reconstruction/support. There was only 50miles of paved road in Afghanistan on 9/11. We built more than 10k miles. hospitals, power grids, etc. We cover more than half of all expenses for entire Afghan gov. 6/20
$88.3B of funds spent to train/equip/sustain Afghan forces. There are over 305,000 Afghan forces. Every year, we pay 75% of their salaries and of total costs of Afghan forces. Afghan gov pays about 10-14%. This will likely continue for years to come. 7/20
WHEN IS ENOUGH? For 20 years, we undertook a conditions-based approach to exiting Afghanistan. The achilles heel of this approach is seen in three harsh realities (1) We can never expect to see an Afghanistan without Taliban. No amount of effort will destroy them entirely. 8/20
(2) Afghan forces will never be able to completely deter threat from potential Taliban assault. (3) No one can or should ever fully trust the word of the Taliban, even if Taliban is part of an intra-Afghan gov agreement. There will always be a risk they will seek power grab. 9/20
If we accept these 3 realities, then the options for US forces fall under two broad categories. (1) We would be prepared to stay in Afghanistan permanently, or (2) We will endure significant risk no matter when we pull troops out. 10/20
Main arguments I’ve heard for staying in Afghanistan permanently (or protracted) is Taliban gains jeopardize gains against terrorists. And costs are lower—we haven’t suffered large US fatalities in recent years. 3k troops not overly burdensome relative to past commitments 11/20
TWO UNKNOWNS: With US forces out, Will the Taliban try to seize control over Afghanistan? If Taliban is successful or if protracted conflict occurs, will that give Al Qaeda or other terrorist group safe haven? No one, not Biden nor any critics, know the answers to these. 12/20
RECONSTITUTION: Some argue Al Qaeda can reconstitute quickly as did ISIS in Syria/Iraq. ISIS’ growth was facilitated by large flows of foreign fighters into Syria funded because of oil fields controlled by ISIS. Conditions are different than what we see in Afghanistan. 13/20
ISIS KHORASAN: Known as ISIS-K, this offshoot of ISIS in Iraq/Syria and competitor to Al Qaeda was the main threat I worried about when I visited Afghanistan in late 2019. Their position in eastern AFG was deeply damaged over the last year, including by the Taliban. 14/20
WOMEN AND CHILDREN: There was a weekend market in Kabul for women owned businesses that I would visit. Would Taliban bring about a return to serious repression against women and children? We are seeing this concern in areas the Taliban controls. 15/20 washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
WHAT I’M LOOKING OUT FOR: As details emerge, I’m paying close attention to whether we can maintain any overflight capabilities(surveillance from unmanned drones) and structure of intel operations. Essentially: how do we maintain eyes on potential terrorist growth? 16/20
MULTIPLE TOOLS: Our ability to shape the future of Afghanistan doesn’t just exist in drones and guns. We still have capable diplomats on the ground and economic tools that can help provide the kind of stability needed for long term success. 17/20
NO GUARANTEES: One time in the Situation Room I remember hearing Obama say “The one thing in this room I never ask for is a guarantee.” That line lingers with me. Our nation has significant power, but we cannot conflate power with control. 18/20
There is sometimes an illusion of control with work at White House. Hubris can make us think we will be greeted as liberators in Iraq or that war would end in months. I believe it’s time to end this war, but we are embarking on a new direction that carries inherent risks. 19/20
END OF CHAPTER: As the last soldier leaves this year, we’ll turn a page on this conflict and era. But what comes next? What will define this new era in the way Afghanistan did? Next week, I’ll give you my thoughts on the new chapter of global politics about to begin. (END)
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Many in north/central NJ are worried about odor/taste of water coming out of the tap. As a father of two boys, I absolutely understand your worries. I talked with heads of NJ Dept of Environmental Protection and American Water.
Here are 4 key questions I asked: THREAD
IS THE WATER SAFE?
DEP/American Water report that water is well within NJ standards, which are some of the strictest in nation. They test for 100s of kinds of metals/ chemical compounds. Results are either non-detection or very low and far below levels of health concerns. 2/10
DO WE KNOW SOURCE OF ODOR/TASTE?
I completely understand if that explanation of water safety is not totally reassuring to those of you that smell/taste something wrong. You have a right to be concerned. Absolute key is identifying what is the compound that is causing the odor. 3/10
I’ve had 3 briefings with White House, FBI and DHS on drones this week, and multiple calls with law enforcement across NJ. I’m hearing from everyone that detection resources are heightened, reported sightings are down, no confirmed threat/concern. Let me go into detail. THREAD
DHS detailed to me the array of tools they have in NJ for drone detection including thermal sensors, drone-specific radar, radio frequency kits, and visual monitors. There have been no drone detections using any of these tools since tools have been active earlier this month. 2/20
In particular, White House/DHS flagged usage of sophisticated camera for drone detection that was deployed earlier in Dec to some of the hot spot areas with more sightings. Again no detections made apart from test drones used to ensure equipment is functioning and effective. 3/20
After going out with police to observe reports of possible drones, I was with the help of civilian pilots and others able to do deeper analysis and concluded that most of the possible drone sightings that were pointed out to me were almost certainly planes. Let me explain: THREAD
While not receiving any feedback/info from federal officials, I reached out to civilian aviators/others for analysis. I used public flight tracking tools to recreate the conditions of my time out. For instance I was at Round Valley Reservoir at 9:20pm and shot this video. 2/9
While I didn’t observe a plane in the flight tracker at that moment that night, I was able to pull up more detailed flight data subsequently and spotted this one small plane taking the path of what was pointed out to me the other night as a possible drone flying near us. 3/9
Last night I went out with local police to spot drone flying over New Jersey, here’s what I saw. We drove to Round Valley Reservoir and the officer pointed to lights moving low over the tree line. Sometimes they were solid white light, others flashed of red and green.THREAD
We oriented ourselves with a flight tracker app to help us distinguish from airplanes. We often saw about 5-7 lights at a time that were low and not associated with aircraft we could see on the tracker app. Some hovered while others moved across the horizon. 2/11
We saw a few that looked like they were moving in small clusters of 2-4. We clearly saw several that would move horizontally and then immediately switch back in the opposite direction in maneuvers that plane can’t do. 3/11
Today was my final vote in the House. As I walk out of the chamber for last time, I wanted to share something almost no one notices. The center aisle, the one the President walks down for SOTU, the aisle that divides the R and D sides, ends at an inscription of “Tolerance.”THREAD
It caught my eye the very first time I stepped into the House chamber when first elected. There is a desk in front of it so you can’t see it on TV. I thought it was a curious choice for such a central location. I’ve thought about it for a long time. Why “tolerance?” 2/11
Tolerance isn’t a particularly inspiring word. In fact it can sound a bit negative. Tolerating noise or bad behavior etc. That’s why political leaders often use “unity.” Why isn’t the word “unity” inscribed in this central location? 3/11
If we’re only having comfortable conversations in politics, it means we aren’t talking to all the people we need to be talking to. What comes next will be hard but needed. Here are my lessons learned for having effective “uncomfortable conversations” in district Trump won. THREAD
THE POWER OF RESPECT:
One of most profound moments of my time in politics happened after finishing a town hall in a deep Trump area. An older man waited 45 min to talk to me. He said “I want you to know I didn’t vote for you…and was very hesitant to come to this town hall.” 2/12
But then the man said “but I’m glad I did.” He shook my hand and walked off. For weeks I thought hard about this moment to unpack it. What I concluded was I don’t think I necessarily earned this man’s vote for showing up and listening, but I do think I earned his respect. 3/12