Thread by @Noahpinion

1/One thing I think the coup attempt of 1/6 did, besides galvanize institutional awareness of a rightist threat, was to expose how militarily weak the rightists are.

2/In the 90s we envisioned the far right as a vast network of well-trained militias. In the 00s we envisioned Blackwater mercenaries being used as rightist paramilitaries in a civil conflict.

In reality, we got a rabble of out of shape 50-year-old boat dealers.

3/They managed to get past the police by doing the old "toe the line between goofy and serious" trick that online Nazis perfected in web forums. But that trick won't work twice.

4/There was no mass defection from the military or the National Guard to the rightist cause. Nor will there be, at least not unless the situation changes hugely and unexpectedly.

defense.gov/Explore/News/A…

5/But in fact this lesson should have been apparent earlier. The protests of summer 2020 saw no massive columns of rightist militias turning out to menace and cow the protesters.

6/In fact when the Three Percenter militia tried to march to counter the NFAC march in Louisville, they were utterly outnumbered and overawed.

courier-journal.com/story/news/loc…

7/In the Pacific Northwest, where the protests turned violent, leftist militias again outnumbered and overmatched rightist ones.

theguardian.com/us-news/2019/j…

8/And in terms of general potential manpower, the left has all the young people.

nationalreview.com/2021/04/a-wake…

9/Without young people, without paramilitary dominance, what hope would rightists have in any civil war?

Some surely envision a mass armed uprising by police departments, but this would be easily crushed by the Guard and the military. Nor will it happen.

10/For decades, rightists have imagined themselves to be an armed group facing off against an unarmed group. But events of the past year make it clear that this is no longer the case.

11/Thus, rightists inclined toward further belligerence should take a look at their overwhelming military inferiority, and stand down.

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