Some thoughts on the resumed talk that if #Ukraine implements the Minsk accords fully including the political provisions, it may throw the country into a civil war. /Thread
There are some very tentative hopes that Germany and France may start pushing a little bit harder within that "cluster" approach to the Minsk accords to make Ukraine finally implement at least some of the political provisions that they all signed in 2015. /1
This happens after six years of ignoring Ukraine's practical sabotage of the Minsk accords and only after Russia's recent "saber-rattling". I am not even sure that there is anything more than rumors and wishful thinking behind those hopes. /2
However, there is already a talk that pushing Ukraine to implement the "Russia-imposed" Minsk accords may cause a "civil war" in the country. It repeats the tropes of the nationalist "anti-capitulation" campaign of 2019 primarily about so-called "Steinmeier's formula". /3
1. It ignores the fact that any stable solution for the war requires either massive disenfranchisement, political cleansing, deportation of the " collaborationist" population from Donbass or Ukraine's transformation into a more ideologically and politically pluralistic country./4
The latter requires recognizing and accepting the "wrong Ukrainians" (roughly a half of the population in pre-war Ukraine's territory) as a legitimate part of the Ukrainian nation with a legitimate right to be represented in the public sphere and politics. /5
Reduction of the Minsk accords to the "capitulation" to the "Russia-imposed" demands typically ignores the need for Ukraine's pluralistic transformation for which the Minsk is a step forward and a political tool. /6
2. On the one hand, it implies that there are indeed so deep contradictions within Ukrainian society that it is on the brink of civil war disintegration because of the international obligations of the Ukrainian state. /7
On the other hand, it reminded me how far right discuss of LGBT events. Often they don't articulate direct threats but say that as far as the LGBT issues are unpopular, they may "provoke" the society, and "the society" may respond with violence. So, let's better not "provoke" /8
These rhetorical strategies also quite ironically remind the defense of the Russian annexation of Crimea, the ill-famous Putin-verstehen. Russia warned that if Ukraine joins NATO, it joins it without Crimea, so now it's allegedly not Russia's fault. /9
I think we should stop this verstehen'ism of Ukrainian nationalist civil society. This is a numerically minor but well-organized group that dominates Ukraine's public sphere. It got a monopoly in the international representation of the whole nation. /10
However, the ideas dominating Ukrainian civil society are not really popular within Ukrainian society at large.
A nationalist revolt is a nationalist revolt. It won't lead to any "inevitable" civil war escalation if dealt with timely and properly. /11
A nationalist revolt is a nationalist revolt. It won't lead to any "inevitable" civil war escalation if dealt with timely and properly. /11
Especially if the nationalist revolt is not fueled but clearly condemned and opposed by the foreign powers that Ukraine overall and its civil society particularly are very much dependent on now. /12
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