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Larry Cermak Profile picture
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18 Apr, 4 tweets, 1 min read
LOL if you think the hashrate drop was the reason for the dump you’re ngmi.
For those looking for some explanation, corrections are natural after massive run ups. Weekends with low liquidity are perfect, some dumb catalyst to spook traders off and down we go. Markets were bid up for Coinbase and that ended up disappointing as well. Not surprising
The best advice in this market is to stop looking for reasons and always be ready for large 20% down moves that have always happened. Stop massively overleveraging and you're gonna be fine homies. Hashrate has nothing to do with these, just market exhaustion
To clarify, I meant stop looking for simple explanations to things that can be explained by market structure. Weekends are low liq, markets have been running up for weeks, everyone was overleveraged and a lot of negatives narratives converge. That's your explanation, not hashrate

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Larry Cermak Profile picture
18 Apr
For those freaking out about hashrate, this is how it actually looks like. All the doomsday estimations that it's down 50% because that's what hashrate estimators say. The drop is closer to ~15-20% and caused by the North-West blackouts in China
Regardless of what it is, this is a temporary decline while miners can't really do anything if they're not getting electricity. On top of that, hydro season starts in late May and will get significantly cheaper. No reason to panic
Ran some quick numbers on the actual HR drop and currently looks like about 20%. Largest drop happened from April 15 to April 16. Poolin is getting hit the largest - losing about 36%
Read 4 tweets
Larry Cermak Profile picture
14 Apr
What's going to be Coinbase's market cap after Friday's close?

The closest guess wins 0.2 ETH. If there are two same numbers, the first one wins.
Market cap is defined as the share price at friday close multiplied by 261,300,000. Good luck homies
The cutoff time is right before the stock lists and we know the listing price. Anything after that is disqualified
Read 6 tweets
Larry Cermak Profile picture
7 Apr
Kimchi premium has started to nosedive. From above 23% to about 14% in just about five hours. Worth watching this closely
Holy fuck this is seriously collapsing in real time. Did someone figure out a way to arb the fuck out of this? @SBF_Alameda
AND we are below 10%... This has dropped from 17% premium to now around 9% in the last 10 minutes. Someone is making 10s of millions as we speak
Read 4 tweets
Larry Cermak Profile picture
6 Apr
Coinbase just dropped the Q1 earnings and outlook. As expected higher revenue than in the entire 2020.

Q1 summary:

• ~$1.8 billion revenue
• Adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.1B
• Net income of $730-800M
• 56M verified users (+13M)
• 6.1M monthly transacting users (+3.3M)
Growth over last quarter

• Revenue —> 207.6%
• Net income —> 312.9%
• Traded volume —> 272.0%
Assets on Platform are ~$223B and $122B of that is coming directly from institutions.

Coinbase expects meaningful growth this year driven by increased institutional interest but admits that its insti revenue is inherently unpredictable
Read 8 tweets
Larry Cermak Profile picture
6 Apr
Coinbase is dropping their Q1 financials today. The revenue figure alone will blow people away. Based on my model, Coinbase will generate $1.45B in revenue Q1; about $1.13B coming just from transaction revenue. That's 13% more than the revenue of the entire 2020.
We can get pretty close to the actual numbers IMO because we have the perfect data for volumes and previous ratios. My assumption is that the ratio between tx revenue and volume drops from 0.55% to 0.35% because more volume will be market makers and therefore lower fees
If it doesn't drop as aggressively as I think, the revenue number would actually be even higher. This is what I'm expecting though and it's gonna make a lot of people take the direct listing more seriously.
Read 5 tweets
Larry Cermak Profile picture
4 Apr
Interesting situation going on with ForceDAO. Liquidity has been withdrawn, price is down 90%+ and there are indications that it could have been a white hat "hack"
Looks like funds were all returned. What a rollercoaster etherscan.io/tx/0xfda56d853…
I would highly advise not to trying to trade this though. There is a lot of unknowns still. It looks like there were two exploiters and the one who returned FORCE didn’t drain the UNI pool. Not sure if they are associated

etherscan.io/address/0x0608…
Read 4 tweets

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