Unvaccinated people can fairly safely spend time with fully vaccinated friends unmasked & indoors. It’s a relatively safe way to make the pandemic more bearable for all of us while keeping cases down. My piece in the @nytimes @nytopinion explains. 1/8
nytimes.com/2021/04/16/opi…
Data from the @CDCgov shows vaccines not only protect against severe illness, but also greatly reduce the risk of mild and asymptomatic cases, so they help prevent overall transmission too. Vaccinated people can get infected, but it is rare. 2/8
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Spending time with a fully vaccinated person unmasked & indoors is far safer than the same contact with another unvaccinated person. This strategy is in line with @CDCgov guidelines that made the unmasked reunions of vaccinated grandparents with their grandchildren possible. 3/8
The key is that fully vaccinated people should visit with only 1 unvaccinated household at a time so that unvaccinated people from 2+ households don’t come into contact. Just like quarantine bubbles but where vaccinated people can interact with several different bubbles. 4/8
It helps keep cases down too. Vaccinated people are unlikely to contract #COVID19, so they slow transmission. Unvaccinated people who mostly spend time with vaccinated contacts therefore have a very low chance of getting infected and pose an even smaller risk of spreading it. 5/8
Rising vaccination rates allow both vaccinated and unvaccinated people to reap the benefits of social contact by gradually expanding their social contacts in a way that keeps COVID19 risk to a minimum. 6/8
If people too quickly expand the number of vaccinated people they spend time with, there is a small possibility it could lead to a minor uptick in cases. But even in this worst-case scenario, cases won’t spread very far because vaccinated contacts are unlikely to get infected.7/8
This strategy is based on the same principle as herd immunity. Vaccinated people provide protection to the unvaccinated by helping reduce transmission. It allows us all to return to normal activities and eases the burden of the pandemic even before everyone is vaccinated. 8/8

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More from @ZoeMcLaren

13 May
Ohio is running a lottery to give 5 people $1 million each if they've been vaccinated. It sounds like a crazy idea but I think it's brilliant. Let me explain. 1/9
1. It creates buzz and gets everyone talking about the vaccine. That opens the doors for conversations that will help encourage vaccine hesitant people to get vaccinated. 2/9
2. Lotteries with bigger jackpots draw more people in. A million dollars might seem like a lot of money but it has the potential to massively boost vaccination rates. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
21 Mar
If you're at extremely low risk for a severe case of COVID19 why does getting vaccinated make sense? The simple answer is that you still reap massive personal benefits from getting vaccinated because it helps end the pandemic. Let me explain 1/8
Vaccines provide two types of protection: (1) direct protection to the recipient and (2) indirect protection to others by slowing transmission. The transmission-slowing component is a lot bigger than you think and probably greatly outweighs the direct component. 2/8
Every vaccination is like a speed bump that slows transmission down. More speed bumps mean fewer cases, which makes it easier to bring the pandemic to an end and return to normal activities like going to bars and concerts. 3/8
Read 9 tweets
25 Jan
Here's a helpful analogy: We are in a battle against the virus. Each vaccine dose can be used to give armor to the most vulnerable OR to lay a stone in the wall to keep the virus out. 1/4
If doses are limited, it makes sense to start by *only* giving armor to the vulnerable since it offers them a lot of protection from illness and death.

We could try to build the wall first, but the vulnerable wouldn't be protected from the virus until the wall was finished. 2/4
So, while doses & infrastructure are too limited to vaccinate enough less-vulnerable people to control the virus, we must focus on getting the most-vulnerable vaccinated. It's the most effective way to protect them.

Only then should we turn to vaccinating the less vulnerable.3/4
Read 4 tweets
25 Jan
Could throwing some COVID19 vaccine doses in the trash actually help save lives? Buckle up. This thread might break your brain. 1/9
Some argue that it's a net positive for non-prioritized people (e.g. young people) to get leftover COVID19 vaccine doses that would otherwise end up in the trash. Let me try to convince you that this is far less helpful than you think and actually likely costs lives. 2/9
According to the CDC, someone aged 65-74 is 90 times more likely to die from COVID19 than someone 18-29.👇 So vaccinating people 65-74 is *about 90 times more effective* at preventing death than vaccinating someone 18-29. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
23 Jan
I respect @lindy2350's work, but this article draws the misguided conclusion that "declining a Covid-19 shot because you think it should go to someone else won’t help anyone." Let me explain. 1/9
nytimes.com/2021/01/21/opi…
The pandemic has been long and hard on everyone. And I don't want to add to anyone's burden. But the idea that letting other more vulnerable people ahead of you in the queue "won't help anyone" is patently false. It may not fix the system, but it could save someone's life. 2/9
If you are at relatively low-risk *within your priority group* then you have many reasons to believe that your vaccination appointment would go to someone with higher risk. A 65 year old who works from home is at far lower risk than a 65 year old who works in retail. 3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
23 Jan
@gregggonsalves you are a treasure and I want you to stay healthy. But I also know how much you care about health equity so please forgive me, but I feel compelled to respond. You can take the vaccination appointment, but you may want to consider postponing. Let me explain. 1/10
If you postpone your appointment, the dose will either (1) go to someone at higher risk, (2) go to someone at lower risk, or (3) in rare cases end up in the trash. 2/10
What is your COVID19 risk relative to the rest of your priority group? If you have low exposure risk (e.g. WFH) and have no underlying risk factors for hospitalization or death from COVID19 then you likely fall in the lower range of risk for your group. 3/10
Read 10 tweets

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