COVID mortality by age group & implications for Astra Zeneca, J&J vaccines:
1/ The chances of dying if you get COVID infection (IFR) is ~0.5% (USA). Varies by country.
2/ In EVERY COUNTRY risk varies dramatically by age.
Age 50-64-->10 times higher risk of death than 30-39. 👇
1/ The chances of dying if you get COVID infection (IFR) is ~0.5% (USA). Varies by country.
2/ In EVERY COUNTRY risk varies dramatically by age.
Age 50-64-->10 times higher risk of death than 30-39. 👇
3/ The estimated risk of dying from COVID infection (infection fatality rate; IFR) is:
~1 in 400 for age 45-54,
~1 in 125 for age 55-64, and
~1 in 40 for age 65-74.
link.springer.com/content/pdf/10…
~1 in 400 for age 45-54,
~1 in 125 for age 55-64, and
~1 in 40 for age 65-74.
link.springer.com/content/pdf/10…
4/ The numbers in the table are for all COVID infections, with and without symptoms. The risk of dying from COVID is 3-4 times higher if you have confirmed Symptomatic COVID. This is not the flu.
5/The risk of hospitalization also goes up significantly by age group.
Being very ill and recovering from COVID is by itself a huge morbidity. So it's not just deaths that we should consider.
Being very ill and recovering from COVID is by itself a huge morbidity. So it's not just deaths that we should consider.
6/ When hospitalization rates are high, death rates from COVID climb dramatically due to shortages of everything from personnel to vents to oxygen to meds.
All the rates I mentioned go up.
All the rates I mentioned go up.
7/Since COVID is all around us, and it's a new virus, we are all at risk of getting COVID at some point. So unlike some other infections, the risk of COVID, and thereby the risk of hospitalization and mortality that follows is not something we can fully protect ourselves from.
8/ The risk of serious blood clots with the Astra Zeneca vaccine is 1 in 100,000 in the EU analysis, and 1 in 250,000 in the UK analysis.
This is far far lower than the risk of COVID. So unless you are less than 30: the benefits far outweigh any risk. Please get vaccinated.
This is far far lower than the risk of COVID. So unless you are less than 30: the benefits far outweigh any risk. Please get vaccinated.
9/ I agree with the UK decision to pause Astra Zeneca vaccine in those less than 30. With more data, these recommendations will evolve.
The transparency in discussing these clots has been outstanding. And helps reduce vaccine hesitancy.
The transparency in discussing these clots has been outstanding. And helps reduce vaccine hesitancy.
10/ The type of blood clots we are concerned about are unusual and occur with low platelets. These are not regular blood clots. They are very very rare with Astra Zeneca and J&J vaccines. They have not been reported with Pfizer or Moderna.
Details on the clots in thread below.
Details on the clots in thread below.
https://twitter.com/vincentrk/status/1381357909880283136
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