Thread by @RMantri

So approximately 550 million people aged 18-45 years will become eligible for vaccines from May 1.

~91M people have received a single dose. ~16M people have received both doses. hindustantimes.com/india-news/ind…

https://twitter.com/RMantri/status/1379470173149667332

So over ~600M people will be looking to get vaccine shots (their first or second) from May 1.

Covid19 production capacity -
Serum Institute: 100M/month (some of this would be exported under international commitments)

Bharat Biotech: 12.5M/month

Cumulative vaccine capacity (Serum Institute, Panacea Biotech, Bharat Biotech, Biologicals E, Hester Bio, Zydus: 8.2B / year. That is significant.
businesstoday.in/coronavirus/af…

But most of this production infrastructure will require tweaking and adaptation to make Covid vaccines.

With such adaptations for capacity expansion and an all out approach to vaccinate, in the best case India can vaccinate entire 18+ population / 600M people (~1.2B doses) in maybe 8 months (~December)?

Also, how fast can manufacturing ramp up? How much can India import?

Stretch goal: can India produce and dose at a pace of 300M/month to finish vaccination by September?

These are huge numbers. We are looking to rewrite business and public health history in the next 6 months.

Success would cement Indian industry’s lead in vaccine manufacturing.

Government of India has made a big bet on the private sector. If the Indian pharma industry is able to deliver even 200M+ doses per month consistently, it will be a massive win - and a big credit to the Govt too, for backing private business.

There is also an interesting segmentation by age of those who spend (younger gen) and those who are more conservative spenders (older people).

In the under-45 age group, people earning Rs 20,000/month splurge Rs 40,000+ on a smartphone. A very different mindset.

Bharat Biotech to raise vaccine capacity to 700 million doses / year livemint.com/companies/news…

Bharat Biotech plans to increase output ~5x in 2 months. This is exactly the kind of stuff India needs to vaccinate 600 million+ people in 4-6 months.