When I read all the FCIC interviews, it was clear risk management is as much cultural as it is quantitative. That was specific to banks, but applies to investment organizations too. No spreadsheet will ever fully protect you. Ultimately it’s about people and process and judgment.

https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/710213657263796224

Goldman under Blankfein and Viniar

https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/710213657263796224

https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/712354063489343488

Chuck Prince

https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/712354063489343488

Read 6 tweets

modest proposal

@modestproposal1

26 Mar

so is the totally made up sequence of events here that a highly levered fund was buying old media names on swap, making a killing, but then VIAC announced "hey we're not idiots thx for the money" and then the unwind was fast and far enough that the PBs had to seize the whole book

trying to understand how today's game of telephone fits together

basically VIAC got liquidity and the fund got liquidated

Read 4 tweets

modest proposal

@modestproposal1

9 Mar

@kayvz

Good interview with @kayvz, that begins with the reminder he is likely the longest serving head of product in Twitter's history.

Great stuff tho on the change in culture, shipping speed, products they're working on, etc..

theverge.com/22319527/twitt…

@kayvz

@kayvz 😂😂 "And I think it’s one of the most amazing things about Twitter. We get the gift of feedback on a minute-by-minute basis"

Love this:
"In my opinion, if we’re not seeing #RestInPeaceTwitter trend a few times a year, we’re not taking big enough swings"

Lot of analysts have asked doesn't Super Follows degrade the main feed. This was a good answer. Obviously to build and maintain a following you need to be tweeting for a general audience. And Super Follows can go beyond just paywalled tweets.

Read 4 tweets

modest proposal

@modestproposal1

6 Mar

https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1368255342291910663

it’s important to understand how wrong this is and make sure it not get traction spreading misinformation. Real households in real pain are going to get real help and nothing about any of this will devalue their currency, as tho they have some FX mismatch in their life.

https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1368255342291910663

There is plenty of wasteful spending in government but people who can’t work and make money cause there’s a pandemic are about to get extra UI payments to bridge them to when they can work. That money wasn’t gonna come from cutting wasteful spending cause that’s not how it works.

https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/1241389189490454528

Hold the same view today as a year ago. If we go too big, ok raise rates. But the asymmetry remains.

https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/1241389189490454528

Read 4 tweets

modest proposal

@modestproposal1

4 Mar

Will repeat what I said after reading LMND S-1, nothing makes me feel more like a boomer than these new age insurance cos and trying to figure out what the excitement is. They’re tiny, money losing, competing in commodity categories with historically shitty returns on capital.

I want to believe that better UX and CX can be a differentiator in a commodity product, but if it doesn’t allow you pricing power (which eg Chubb gets), you’re going to grow fast and consume capital to do so, in a low return business.

This is not about valuation. This is about trying to understand the microeconomic case for these businesses at scale sustainably earning excess returns on invested capital in an industry where almost no one does that.

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