By the end of the month, rail ridership will be at its highest level since the start of the pandemic (45%). I would be very surprised if it didn't reach 60% before the end of June, and I think it might be quicker than that.
What happens afterwards depends largely on London.
What happens afterwards depends largely on London.
https://twitter.com/PermanentRail/status/1384823057747939329
Here's a higher resolution version of the "traveller type" graph in that thread, using quarterly data...
You can see that, during the pandemic, London travellers ended up accounting for a *higher* percentage of rail journeys. Which potentially confounds a lot of predictions.
You can see that, during the pandemic, London travellers ended up accounting for a *higher* percentage of rail journeys. Which potentially confounds a lot of predictions.
My question is not "will rail reach 75% of pre-COVID ridership by the end of the year?" but "will ridership top out before the end of summer and at what level?".
There's a lot of variables at play, though... But we'll have a much clearer picture within a month.
Anyway, we'll chat through this a bit in THE NEWS tonight:
https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1384130418165784580?s=19
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