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21 Apr, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Thinking some more about this: what do consumer expectations about inflation really tell us? The answer is, they're mainly about the *current* price of oil 1/
Chart 2/
One interpretation is that when people answer questions about inflation, they're really telling the survey whether they think the cost of living is currently high. In any case, consumer inflation expectations obviously haven't been a good predictor 3/
In fact, they're sort of "anti-core" inflation: they focus on exactly the stuff that core inflation, which has been a hugely successful concept, strips out 4/

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Paul Krugman Profile picture
22 Apr
One thing I haven't seen pointed out much as the vaccination campaign moves forward is that this is a rare case in which individual decisions about whether to act responsibly are crucial to the outcome 1/
On issues like climate change, personal decisions are of marginal importance: we can't save the planet by persuading more people to paper instead of plastic or eat less meat. It's almost all about public policy 2/
But on vaccines, it's rapidly becoming clear that the crucial question isn't how many vaccines we can supply, it's how many people are willing to take them. Individual choices to be irresponsible and not take the shots may have catastrophic effects 3/
Read 4 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
21 Apr
We need a name for this kind of thing, which is a new stage in right-wing denial of facts. Maybe "lying eyes," as in "Who you gonna believe?" 1/
It's one thing to, say, reject data and refuse to believe experts on climate change; it's another to believe in conspiracy theories. In both cases, however, you aren't denying the clear experience of millions of people 2/
But to assert that DC was a ghost town last night, when anyone there can tell you it wasn't is a whole additional level of denial. Same for assertions that BLM demonstrators pillaged Manhattan, etc. Who you gonna believe, Tucker Carlson or your lying eyes? 3/
Read 4 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
18 Apr
Under Obama, the GOP could always round up the usual suspects to attack any effort to help the economy recover 2/ economics21.org/html/open-lett…
They could find economists to make outlandish claims on behalf of Trump's economics 3/ wsj.com/articles/how-t…
But these days the closest thing to an economists' critique of Biden is coming from ... Larry Summers. Are GOP economists unwilling to support the party of insurrection? Are they embarrassed about the inflation and investment boom that never came? 4/
Read 4 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
15 Apr
The difference from 2009, when Republicans managed to demonize everything Obama did, is amazing. Would like to see a serious poli-sci analysis. I can think of several stories 1/
Possibilities:

1. Voters aren't scared of an affable old white guy
2. The populist nature of the policies has appeal
3. Rs paying the price for past deficit hypocrisy; nobody believes their posturing
4. The electorate has moved left

I actually don't know which is right 2/
But it's kind of funny to watch Rs keep repeating the magic words — socialism! job-killing! Democrat party! — in the belief that they'll work if only they say them often enough. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
14 Apr
Will Andrew Yang actually become mayor? Will he be any good? I have no idea. I do know that he's dead wrong on his signature issue 1/ nytimes.com/2019/11/14/opi…
Far from seeing a huge, job-destroying surge in productivity, we're seeing very slow productivity gains 2/ bls.gov/opub/mlr/2021/…
By the way, the slowdown is really pronounced in manufacturing 3/
Read 4 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
11 Apr
Email from Peterson Institute for International Economics: John Williamson died yesterday. A lovely person and a major contributor to international economics — among other things coined the term "Washington Consensus" 1/ piie.com/publications/p…
Williamson also devised the "crawling peg" exchange rate system, which helped developing countries escape from repeated balance of payments crises. 2/ ies.princeton.edu/pdf/E50.pdf
And I've long been indebted to him for the phrase "the doctrine of immaculate transfer," for claims that capital movements can somehow take place without changes in real exchange rates to induce the corresponding trade imbalances 3/
Read 4 tweets

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