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Anders Åslund Profile picture
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21 Apr, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Putin's much delayed annual speech to the Federal Assembly was almost entirely devoted to domestic issues. 20 minutes for each: Coronavirus, social & economic issues. Very positive: Almost everything is good & it will become even better.
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Putin stumbles when reading & missed many small things in the text, which was full of irrelevant details & numbers. As usual, he set no overall goals of relevance of growth rate, etc. The 1 hour & 20 minutes long speech was incredibly boring & many fell asleep.
The brief security section of barely 10 minutes did not mention the US, the EU or the current situation in Ukraine. The main emphasis was on an alleged attempt at coup in Belarus & attempt to murder Lukashenka.
Putin complained about an alleged armed coup against Yanukovych. As always, Putin presented Russia as well-willing & good, while the West is mean. While restrained, Putin promised that "Russia's response will be asymmetric, fast & severe."
Putin claimed that "Russia is always open to broad international cooperation." His main proposal is arms control negotiations. Climate change is a big theme in the whole speech. He mentions "illegal sanctions" just in passing. Belarus looks as the focal point.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
20 Apr
By trying to kill @navalny, Putin has put himself in a los-lose position. If he kills Navalny, Navalny will become Anatoly Marchenko. If Navalny survives, he will become Andrei Sakharov. In December 1986, the fearless Marchenko died at the age of 48 in a Soviet prison hospital.
Marchenko was the 2nd most prominent dissident after Sakharov. He died after a three-month-long hunger strike. In 1969, Marchenko was sentenced for "defamation of the Soviet political system", & in 1981 he got a 15-year sentence for "anti-Soviet agitation,” but he was a fighter.
Marchenko’s goal was the release of all Soviet prisoners of conscience & he succeeded. His death caused a major international outcry; 11 days after his death, Gorbachev freed Sakharov from his enforced exile in Gorky.
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
15 Apr
What the US sanctions on Russia today really mean (sorry for some repetition):
1. The Biden administration has completed its review of the Russia sanctions program & presented a new executive order which catches it all - broader & renders CAATSA nearly redundant.
2. The main real sanction was on Russia's government debt. It is small, only $61 bn, but from now on Russia can't expand its public debt significantly. The US controls Russian state finances.
3. The US shows that its intelligence works: It exposed all the main culprits for cyber crimes, election interference & war in Africa.
4. The whole US administration acted together & also with Western allies. The West has been resurrected by Biden.
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
13 Apr
Biden to Putin "emphasized the US unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The President voiced our concerns over the sudden Russian military build-up in occupied Crimea and on Ukraine’s borders, and called on Russia to de-escalate tensions."
2. In today's phone call with Putiin, "President Biden also made clear that the United States will act firmly in defense of its national interests in response to Russia’s actions, such as cyber intrusions and election interference."
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
3. Biden "reaffirmed his goal of building a stable and predictable relationship with Russia consistent with U.S. interests, and proposed a summit meeting in a third country in the coming months to discuss the full range of issues facing the United States and Russia."
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
28 Mar
Russia sanctions: Amazing how some investment bankers don't understand that people live from economic growth, not macroeconomic stability, looking at budget surplus & reserves rather than real disposable income falling by 11% since 2014.
ft.com/content/8ba328….
"Putin has become a model of orthodoxy"! But Russia's GDP in USD has fallen from $2.3 trillion in 2013 to $1.5 trillion in 2020. Is your intention to starve both the Russian people & your foolish investors, Ruchir Sharma?
"Putin talks of boosting economic growth" Not quite true.
"which has average barely 2 per cent over the past decade." No, 0.3% a year since 2014, when sanctions hit, 1.1% a year 2011-20. Check elementary facts before writing!
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
25 Mar
It is time to get serious about Trump & his engagement with the Russian mafia & intelligence agencies. @lukeharding1968 & @craigunger have both done so in wonderful books. Trump made his money out of 3 dozens of Russian criminals & oligarchs.
2. In his excellent book "American Kompromat" @craigunger clarifies how Trump has been a Russian intelligence asset since 1987. He cannot be understood otherwise.
3. Robert Mueller painfully failed his important task. Is it because he is an old-style republican, a friend of the defective Bill Barr, or just censored? Yet, his simplistic report contains a lot of hard facts that should be published without redactions.
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
23 Mar
Vladimir Putin has received his first dose of a Russian-made coronavirus vaccine in private, Dmitry Peskov told news agencies late on Tuesday.
Just bizarre. In private & not saying what jab?
What is wrong with him.
Is Putin afraid of being poisoned?
theguardian.com/world/2021/mar…
Putin needs a better spokesman. Peskov "had earlier explained why Putin would not be getting vaccinated on camera and that journalists would have to “trust his word” that it had happened. “The president has already done a lot to popularise the vaccine,”"
Nobody is so stupid that they trust the mass murder Putin on his word.
Nobody has done more to undermine the credibility of Russia Covid vaccines than Putin, but first delaying vaccination & now refusing to say what vaccine he received & not in public.
Read 4 tweets

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