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Brett Winton Profile picture
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21 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
A world with bitcoin is a world with an electric grid that can accommodate a higher share of renewable energy.

(Why do we think so? Read here: wintonark.medium.com/bitcoin-mining…)
A solar-battery system alone experiences decaying profitability as it attempts to accommodate a larger share of grid demand.
Paired with a bitcoin miner, however, the system can be effectively overpowered to hit baseload quality dispatch rates without hurting system profitability
Since the bitcoin-battery-solar system overbuilds solar (relative to battery) in order to provide baseload-competitive electricity, there is a likely second-order impact in furthering solar along its cost decline curve.
wintonark.medium.com/bitcoin-mining…

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More from @wintonARK

Brett Winton Profile picture
21 Apr
I have solar.

Installed by Tesla since January.

Hasn't generated a single watt-hour.

Waiting for utility to approve the connection.
Attach bitcoin mining and sell into fiat, and the solar could have (probabilistically) generated $1,500 over this 3 months but instead has lain idle.

Compare to $17k for the full cost of the system (and $20k accommodating a right-sized miner.)
The system hasn't yet generated a watt-hour *and* I haven't yet paid a penny;

Tesla won't collect until the system is allowed to begin generating power.

(Put another way, I paid for this friction on the higher upfront cost required to pay back Tesla for its cost of capital.)
Read 5 tweets
Brett Winton Profile picture
21 Apr
[dropping something on this topic shortly]
wintonark.medium.com/bitcoin-mining…
github.com/ARKInvest/Sola…
Read 4 tweets
Brett Winton Profile picture
6 Apr
@elonmusk @CathieDWood @ARKInvest People often compare S&P market cap to US GDP:

apples to oranges (since companies sell global and domicile is decreasingly vital to distribution footprint).
@elonmusk @CathieDWood @ARKInvest And there is massive tailwind pressure from people, globally, trying to buy investable long-duration assets operating under the idea that they should stop producing/working at age 65 but continue living off saved resource until 90 (plus/minus 30 years?)
@elonmusk @CathieDWood @ARKInvest 3rd:

Investable assets are priced competitive to other stores of value. If locking money into the 10 year treasury yields less than 2% in annual incremental cashflow then what should I demand for an ownership share of a diversified set of global business interests?
Read 4 tweets
Brett Winton Profile picture
21 Mar
@ChrisBloomstran Happy to receive feedback on the way we’ve modeled the insurance business.

I’ll walk through the mechanics of it in a bit and you can let me know how you would amend.

But first I’d like to level set and clear up a few misperceptions.
@ChrisBloomstran 1)
As described in the blog, the “bear case” as we’ve defined it is the 25th percentile outcome.

It is not the *worst* outcome (which, as with all equities, is bankruptcy.)

The case detailed in the blog is one of many possible ways that outcome could occur.
@ChrisBloomstran Because we have tried to distill the model into independent inputs the 25th percentile outcome is not the downside case for each of those inputs.

The bear case of 3 coinflips is not 3 tails, but 1 heads and 2 tails.
Read 16 tweets
Brett Winton Profile picture
21 Dec 20
Apple still reputedly planning to build an iCar.

The apparent secret sauce:
They watched the livestream of Tesla’s battery day;
They also took notes;
Then those notes were exclusively leaked to Reuters.

So they could hire, hoping to begin production by

[checks notes]

2025.
fwiw
In 2011 I placed a number of 10 to 1 bets with friends that Apple would have an iCar in-market before April of ’21.

Going to lose.

But it always seemed like the right play for them, and I’m convinced that if Jobs hadn’t passed they would have made that bet (and made mine)
At the time (2011) people were arguing that Apple would vertically integrate through TV manufacture (which I always thought was inane).

There was (and still is!) so much transformation-potential in automotive, but they waited too long; Tesla is tearing through their green space.
Read 6 tweets
Brett Winton Profile picture
21 Dec 20
that competitor you thought you didn't need to worry about due to your unimpeachable network-effect-derived moat
yes they are digital businesses--in an increasingly digital world--but this serves as a reminder: most payments are hyper-hyper-local.

you exchange resources daily with the people that you see daily.
Interesting (to me):
Compared to other canonical network effect failures, Venmo isn't obviously mis-executing to allow @CashApp to chase it down.

MySpace caught Friendster due to Friendster's infrastructure failures.

Then MySpace sold and overmonetized opening the door to FB.
Read 6 tweets

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